Everything Derozan

[Axel]

Why?

That seems to me to be things that shoulnt take 7 seasons to learn

Because it is rare for a player with moderate success to fundamentally change the way they play the game. More often you'll see more of the same or regression into more settling for jumpers. The fact that DD has gone from a jumper heavy game to a drive based game is very uncommon. Usually you would see the inverse, an athletic driver adjusting as they lose the athletic advantage over their opponent.

[JWash]

There's trying and failing and then there's just not trying.

I'm not concerned at all about DD's three point shooting. He'll probably never learn it, but if he plays like he has been lately, he doesn't need to (as long as he is slightly respectable from the corners, which he is).

That's the key right there.

[JWash]

Because it is rare for a player with moderate success to fundamentally change the way they play the game. More often you'll see more of the same or regression into more settling for jumpers. The fact that DD has gone from a jumper heavy game to a drive based game is very uncommon. Usually you would see the inverse, an athletic driver adjusting as they lose the athletic advantage over their opponent.

The nice thing with DD is the slashing doesn't appear to be too reliant on athleticism if at all. Reminds me of Paul Pierce kind of. Doesn't have that elite first step, but has excellent body control and knows how to make those quick, jerky movements to get by a defender or split the defense. It's actually something that will probably only get better with age not worse.

[Wild-ling#1]

The nice thing with DD is the slashing doesn't appear to be too reliant on athleticism if at all. Reminds me of Paul Pierce kind of. Doesn't have that elite first step, but has excellent body control and knows how to make those quick, jerky movements to get by a defender or split the defense. It's actually something that will probably only get better with age not worse.

OK, that's gotta be too good to be true ...

You tryin' to hurt me, son? Tryin' to give a' old man false hope??

[Barolt]

The nice thing with DD is the slashing doesn't appear to be too reliant on athleticism if at all. Reminds me of Paul Pierce kind of. Doesn't have that elite first step, but has excellent body control and knows how to make those quick, jerky movements to get by a defender or split the defense. It's actually something that will probably only get better with age not worse.

This is why I think his career development should be in the direction of where Kobe changed his game from 2008-2012. Became a better post up player, worked on his elbow game. Used his ability to read defenders to draw fouls and create good quality shots with excellent footwork. DeMar has some of the same skills, and a similar ability to read defenders, so he could develop those skills.

I think that's more valuable to him than the 3 point shot.

[DanH]

People seem really confused about the "golden" rule. It is not trying to describe how good a player is. Nor how good an offensive player they are. Nor how good their offensive impact is.

It is a descriptor for the top primary scorers in the game - the players who can be the primary focus of an offence (and therefore of the opposing defence) and still maintain a plus scoring efficiency. It will not capture passing (or not completely anyway), it will not capture impact (at all), it will not capture defence (obviously). It captures only a player's ability to put up points in bunches without sucking the life out of their team's offence (ie volume inefficient scoring).

I think DeMar could fairly be ranked as a top 20 scorer in the game today. His play style (and frankly the team's coaching) cause his team impact to be fairly poor (read: not star-like) even though he can be a top individual scorer, but he's still a tremendous scorer.

That is, the way he is playing now. Prior to this year he only hit (or even remotely approached) this plateau once, and it was in a season where he simply hit more tough shots than usual, which didn't bode well long term (at least not like this year's performance does). Nonetheless, that 2013-14 season from DeMar was undoubtedly a huge factor in the team making the playoffs (with, as noted, Lowry being the primary reason). Unfortunately the risk of playing the way he did was realized last season - when those tough shots don't go, everything falls apart.

I think there is one specific value to having a top scorer, even if they don't grade out well in terms of impact, team play (though DeMar is much improved here he still has room for significant improvement), and defence. And that is preventing other players from having to score as much. That sounds a little silly but the ability to carry usage while scoring efficiently is a rare one (as should be noted from the "golden" rule results, which is kind of the point). Players like Kyle Lowry, who are amazing impact players, very efficient (when healthy), drive the offence and defence of the team - those guys really help you win a lot. But they break down, or lose effectiveness, if they are forced to carry too much of a load. We have yet to see whether JV falls under the same category (his win production and efficiency stats are tremendous but his usage limit has never been tested).

But in any case, players like Lowry are absolutely invaluable, and are only capable of doing what they do when another player is there to take on the heavy offensive load. Many will argue that JV can handle. Much larger load than he is currently tasked with, and as such replacing DeMar with a player who is not an elite scorer (elite as in top 20 or 30, not top 5 or something) could be absorbed without increasing Lowry's workload too much. And I fall into that group. But we have to recognize that there remains a possibility that JV wouldn't be able to handle as much of an offensive load as DD. And we also have to recognize this: Lowry's best (sustainable) play has come over the last three seasons with DeMar beside him. So clearly DD has proven he can play that role for the team.

And it's a best of both worlds thing too - right now DD is producing wins as well, and playing a team game, and being efficient while carrying a high usage. And that's fantastic. And is why he is going to have a chance to be worth the contract he signs (a better chance if he comes in closer to 20M than 30M, but still). But the reality is that DD has had, for two of the last three years, one undeniable skill - the ability to soak up offensive possessions and lighten the load for everyone else, even when the win production was less and the team game could be lacking at times. The latter bits were concerning when evidence was already pointing to him getting big money. And that was a big reason why I wanted him moved. But he was never useless even when his win rate and efficiency were down (not through the floor like last year, but down), due to that one crucial skill.

But with his current (radically different, no matter what anyone says) play, that one big skill along with the more all-around game and improved efficiency (and improved sustainability of that efficiency stemming from his shot selection) is making him a very valuable player in more ways than one - which is new, and I'd gladly get used to it.

[Axel]

The nice thing with DD is the slashing doesn't appear to be too reliant on athleticism if at all. Reminds me of Paul Pierce kind of. Doesn't have that elite first step, but has excellent body control and knows how to make those quick, jerky movements to get by a defender or split the defense. It's actually something that will probably only get better with age not worse.

I agree that it's not athleticism based but I don't agree that it's something that will probably get better. Without the range to hit that perimeter shot, I don't think Demar can extend the value and longevity on his drives as Pierce did. Demar should be able to maintain this drive heavy offence, but I wouldn't go as far as expecting much improvement. Eventually his body will lose a half step, and without the deep shot threat, it will be hard for DD to compensate let alone improve.

[Barolt]

I agree that it's not athleticism based but I don't agree that it's something that will probably get better. Without the range to hit that perimeter shot, I don't think Demar can extend the value and longevity on his drives as Pierce did. Demar should be able to maintain this drive heavy offence, but I wouldn't go as far as expecting much improvement. Eventually his body will lose a half step, and without the deep shot threat, it will be hard for DD to compensate let alone improve.

This is a lot of why my ideal path for him is the Kobe route, of working on footwork, post-game and elbow game. Kobe from age 30-34 couldn't get his shot off at the rim at a high rate, and although he was a better midrange and 3pt shooter than DeMar is, he still wasn't elite at either shot. Prior to his last couple injuries though, he still retained elite level offensive capabilities through extraordinary reads and footwork.

I don't think DeMar is as good as Kobe, either as a scorer or distributor, but I think he has a similar skillset and could follow a similar career path to keep his game relevant into his 30s. I think that's the best case scenario, rather than thinking he can become an elite 3pt shooting threat.

[Wild-ling#1]

People seem really confused about the "golden" rule. It is not trying to describe how good a player is. Nor how good an offensive player they are. Nor how good their offensive impact is.

It is a descriptor for the top primary scorers in the game - the players who can be the primary focus of an offence ....
I think DeMar could fairly be ranked as a top 20 scorer in the game today. His play style (and frankly the team's coaching) cause his team impact to be fairly poor (read: not star-like) even though he can be a top individual scorer, but he's still a tremendous scorer.

That is, the way he is playing now. Prior to this year he only hit (or even remotely approached) this plateau once .... Unfortunately the risk of playing the way he did was realized last season - when those tough shots don't go, everything falls apart.

I think there is one specific value to having a top scorer, even if they don't grade out well in terms of impact, team play (though DeMar is much improved here he still has room for significant improvement), and defence. And that is preventing other players from having to score as much. That sounds a little silly but the ability to carry usage while scoring efficiently is a rare one (as should be noted from the "golden" rule results, which is kind of the point). Players like Kyle Lowry, who are amazing impact players, very efficient (when healthy), drive the offence and defence of the team - those guys really help you win a lot. But they break down, or lose effectiveness, if they are forced to carry too much of a load. We have yet to see whether JV falls under the same category (his win production and efficiency stats are tremendous but his usage limit has never been tested). ....

But with his current (radically different, no matter what anyone says) play, that one big skill along with the more all-around game and improved efficiency (and improved sustainability of that efficiency stemming from his shot selection) is making him a very valuable player in more ways than one - which is new, and I'd gladly get used to it.

Well written and worth reading.

(Uh - both high-volume and efficient, one might say.

[slaw]

That is, the way he is playing now. Prior to this year he only hit (or even remotely approached) this plateau once, and it was in a season where he simply hit more tough shots than usual, which didn't bode well long term (at least not like this year's performance does). Nonetheless, that 2013-14 season from DeMar was undoubtedly a huge factor in the team making the playoffs (with, as noted, Lowry being the primary reason). Unfortunately the risk of playing the way he did was realized last season - when those tough shots don't go, everything falls apart.


But with his current (radically different, no matter what anyone says) play, that one big skill along with the more all-around game and improved efficiency (and improved sustainability of that efficiency stemming from his shot selection) is making him a very valuable player in more ways than one - which is new, and I'd gladly get used to it.

I would take issue with the "he hit more tough shots than usual" to describe 2013-14. He also got to the free throw line 200 more times than the previous year. He also cranked out 1.5 more assists per game. Presumably, those things may have had more to do with his increased offensive productivity than him shooting below his career average. And, guess what, he did those same things last year and this year with the additional evolution that he has improved his shot selection.

I guess we'll agree to disagree but I'm not sure the explanation of "he got lucky two years ago, didn't get lucky last year and fundamentally, radically changed his game this year by changing his shot selection(???)" makes a lot of real world sense.

[Barolt]

People seem really confused about the "golden" rule. It is not trying to describe how good a player is. Nor how good an offensive player they are. Nor how good their offensive impact is.

It is a descriptor for the top primary scorers in the game - the players who can be the primary focus of an offence (and therefore of the opposing defence) and still maintain a plus scoring efficiency. It will not capture passing (or not completely anyway), it will not capture impact (at all), it will not capture defence (obviously). It captures only a player's ability to put up points in bunches without sucking the life out of their team's offence (ie volume inefficient scoring).

I think DeMar could fairly be ranked as a top 20 scorer in the game today. His play style (and frankly the team's coaching) cause his team impact to be fairly poor (read: not star-like) even though he can be a top individual scorer, but he's still a tremendous scorer.

That is, the way he is playing now. Prior to this year he only hit (or even remotely approached) this plateau once, and it was in a season where he simply hit more tough shots than usual, which didn't bode well long term (at least not like this year's performance does). Nonetheless, that 2013-14 season from DeMar was undoubtedly a huge factor in the team making the playoffs (with, as noted, Lowry being the primary reason). Unfortunately the risk of playing the way he did was realized last season - when those tough shots don't go, everything falls apart.

I think there is one specific value to having a top scorer, even if they don't grade out well in terms of impact, team play (though DeMar is much improved here he still has room for significant improvement), and defence. And that is preventing other players from having to score as much. That sounds a little silly but the ability to carry usage while scoring efficiently is a rare one (as should be noted from the "golden" rule results, which is kind of the point). Players like Kyle Lowry, who are amazing impact players, very efficient (when healthy), drive the offence and defence of the team - those guys really help you win a lot. But they break down, or lose effectiveness, if they are forced to carry too much of a load. We have yet to see whether JV falls under the same category (his win production and efficiency stats are tremendous but his usage limit has never been tested).

But in any case, players like Lowry are absolutely invaluable, and are only capable of doing what they do when another player is there to take on the heavy offensive load. Many will argue that JV can handle. Much larger load than he is currently tasked with, and as such replacing DeMar with a player who is not an elite scorer (elite as in top 20 or 30, not top 5 or something) could be absorbed without increasing Lowry's workload too much. And I fall into that group. But we have to recognize that there remains a possibility that JV wouldn't be able to handle as much of an offensive load as DD. And we also have to recognize this: Lowry's best (sustainable) play has come over the last three seasons with DeMar beside him. So clearly DD has proven he can play that role for the team.

And it's a best of both worlds thing too - right now DD is producing wins as well, and playing a team game, and being efficient while carrying a high usage. And that's fantastic. And is why he is going to have a chance to be worth the contract he signs (a better chance if he comes in closer to 20M than 30M, but still). But the reality is that DD has had, for two of the last three years, one undeniable skill - the ability to soak up offensive possessions and lighten the load for everyone else, even when the win production was less and the team game could be lacking at times. The latter bits were concerning when evidence was already pointing to him getting big money. And that was a big reason why I wanted him moved. But he was never useless even when his win rate and efficiency were down (not through the floor like last year, but down), due to that one crucial skill.

But with his current (radically different, no matter what anyone says) play, that one big skill along with the more all-around game and improved efficiency (and improved sustainability of that efficiency stemming from his shot selection) is making him a very valuable player in more ways than one - which is new, and I'd gladly get used to it.

I can accept and agree with this interpretation of golden's list. I guess my point was more that there are definitely guys who are elite offensive players who won't appear on a list like that. I don't accept the list as purely a list of elite offensive talents, because I think there's a lot more to being an elite offensive player than simply taking a large portion of your team's shots.

[Wild-ling#1]

I would take issue with the "he hit more tough shots than usual" to describe 2013-14. He also got to the free throw line 200 more times than the previous year. He also cranked out 1.5 more assists per game. Presumably, those things may have had more to do with his increased offensive productivity than him shooting below his career average. And, guess what, he did those same things last year and this year with the additional evolution that he has improved his shot selection.

I guess we'll agree to disagree but I'm not sure the explanation of "he got lucky two years ago, didn't get lucky last year and fundamentally, radically changed his game this year by changing his shot selection(???)" makes a lot of real world sense.

Seems fair, as well.

[DanH]

I would take issue with the "he hit more tough shots than usual" to describe 2013-14. He also got to the free throw line 200 more times than the previous year. He also cranked out 1.5 more assists per game. Presumably, those things may have had more to do with his increased offensive productivity than him shooting below his career average. And, guess what, he did those same things last year and this year with the additional evolution that he has improved his shot selection.

I guess we'll agree to disagree but I'm not sure the explanation of "he got lucky two years ago, didn't get lucky last year and fundamentally, radically changed his game this year by changing his shot selection(???)" makes a lot of real world sense.

He clearly got much better from 2012-13 to 2013-14, and I don't think anyone has disputed that. And it was largely on the basis of a dramatically better assist game and free throw rate. Absolutely no arguments there. Big leap in his game - but the leap appeared bigger than it was because his shooting was unsustainably good that season.

He did get lucky hitting a bunch of shots he doesn't usually hit (especially over the past three years where he has really established himself). He shot 71% at the rim that year - he's never broken 66% in any other year, and his career average is 63%. He shot 40% from the long two range (16+ feet) - last year he shot 35% and this year 34%. Previous years he had a much higher proportion of assisted shots that helped him to slightly higher (though not by much) percentages from that range, but with the plummet in assisted baskets you'd expect a lower percentage (like we are seeing the last two years). He shot 31% from 3, a wild outlier in his career (and he took 210 3 pointers, almost double any other year, so it was a significant difference).

The biggest difference last season, where he had a dramatic drop off in play, was not his free throw rate (44% vs 45% the previous year), nor his assists (5.2 AST/100 vs 5.4), and his rebounding was better (6.8 vs 5.9). The biggest difference lies in his simple shooting percentages, he fell off the cliff in midrange shooting (which is disastrous when you use that many midrange jumpers) and shooting at the rim (his two highest proportion shots) while his 3 point shooting fell off in terms of raw attempts and also success rate. Most of that was simple regression though he shot worse at the rim than you'd expect, so some bad luck too.

Consider this: those long midrange jumpers, from 16+ feet, that formed 1/3rd of DD's offence the two years previous to this one - DeMar is having the most efficient overall year of his career, and yet he is shooting his career worst percentage from that range. The shooting percentages from decent range (10+ feet) are way too unreliable year to year, for any player. DeMar in particular has been all over the place. The single most reliable way to improve your offensive output is to control where you shoot from.

[Miekenstien]

Yet again, I'm not seeing an improvement in skills, I'm seeing a drastic improvement in decision making and intelligence.

you have to give him the handles. those no fumbles in crowds are directly improving the rest of his game.

[DanH]

you have to give him the handles. those no fumbles in crowds are directly improving the rest of his game.

DeMar's TOV% on drives this year is 5.6%.

Last year? 5.7%.

Doesn't seem like a massive difference to me, results wise...