Everything Dwane Casey

[KeonClark]

Haha we hated Casey for this and he turned out to be ahead of the curve. 2-3 PG's is not at all unusual anymore.

If Casey wins CoY I will buy a Dwane Casey poster and put it up in my basement and I ain't joking. I need to find one of him flashing that ring.

How about sexy young dwane casey in a meadow

[S.R.]

How about sexy young dwane casey in a meadow

"Hi, my name is Dwane and I'm from the mid-west. How you doin'?"

[planetmars]

3 guard line up is fine but the bigger issue is FVV getting closing minutes. I still don't really get that. Maybe it's because Powell has been so brutal and Dwane wants 2-3 ball handlers out there at all times. Stats show he's not really good in that role though.

[KeonClark]

"Hi, my name is Dwane and I'm from the mid-west. How you doin'?"

"I like rollerskate discos, a good fitting pair of bell bottom slacks, and every record put out by the jackson 5"

[3inthekeon]

3 guard line up is fine but the bigger issue is FVV getting closing minutes. I still don't really get that. Maybe it's because Powell has been so brutal and Dwane wants 2-3 ball handlers out there at all times. Stats show he's not really good in that role though.

What stats?

[DanH]

What stats?

Team clutch rating stats, is probably the reference. It's not really proof of viability, but they do show that the team has definitely struggled in the clutch in his minutes.

[planetmars]

What stats?

Team clutch rating stats, is probably the reference. It's not really proof of viability, but they do show that the team has definitely struggled in the clutch in his minutes.

Yeah what Dan said.. not sure where I saw them but FVV is in the minus in clutch rating stats.

[DanH]

The Raptors are 26-10 overall.

They are 9-6 in games that are "close" - that is the score is within 5 points anytime in the last 5 minutes of the game.

They are 5-4 in close games where FVV gets clutch minutes.

They are 4-2 in close games where he doesn't.

They have a -6 net rating in the clutch with FVV on the floor.

They have a +12 net rating in the clutch with FVV off the floor.

FVV is the 4th most used clutch player in spite of this.

[3inthekeon]

Team clutch rating stats, is probably the reference. It's not really proof of viability, but they do show that the team has definitely struggled in the clutch in his minutes.

What am I missing? FVV has 31 minutes of clutch time and is +9.

[KeonClark]

The Raptors are 26-10 overall.

They are 9-6 in games that are "close" - that is the score is within 5 points anytime in the last 5 minutes of the game.

They are 5-4 in close games where FVV gets clutch minutes.

They are 4-2 in close games where he doesn't.

They have a -6 net rating in the clutch with FVV on the floor.

They have a +12 net rating in the clutch with FVV off the floor.

FVV is the 4th most used clutch player in spite of this.

Casey feels safe with him I guess. John Salmons, Alan Anderson, Chuck Hayes, now add Freddy VanVleet

[DanH]

What am I missing? FVV has 31 minutes of clutch time and is +9.

Clutch time, more than any other stat, can be easily skewed by possession count (especially as a game can go from within to not within 5 points as possession changes, for example). FVV has a crapload more offensive possessions in the clutch than defensive ones due to sub patterns, timeouts, score effects, etc. His net rating in the clutch adjusts and shows what his +/- per 100 would be (roughly) if his possession count was equal on both sides.

So, for example, if the Raptors were up 5, and scored, he'd get a +2 to his +/-. Then the other team could score three points, but his clutch time numbers wouldn't change, because it's not clutch time - the lead is too big, at 7. Then the Raptors score 2 points, and his plus-minus goes up again, +2, now up to +4 in this example, since the lead is back to 4. Of course, the other team comes down and hits another three, but the Raps are up 6, so it doesn't count towards the clutch stats. So obviously any objective observer would put his clutch time +/- in this scenario as -2. But in reality it shows up as +4.

Clutch time net ratings are crucial because of the arbitrary (and unavoidable) cut off for clutch time - sometimes you will flit back and forth over that line and it screws with the raw +/-. You still lose out on those possessions where you are up 6, but at least you get a number based on the same number of offensive and defensive possessions.

[JimiCliff]

Casey feels safe with him I guess. John Salmons, Alan Anderson, Chuck Hayes, now add Freddy VanVleet

Actually, I think he enjoys making Masai look smart. 'Look, undrafted 2nd year player getting crunch minutes on a winning team!' Sly like a fox, Casey is.

[Majesiu]

Clutch time net ratings are crucial because of the arbitrary (and unavoidable) cut off for clutch time - sometimes you will flit back and forth over that line and it screws with the raw +/-. You still lose out on those possessions where you are up 6, but at least you get a number based on the same number of offensive and defensive possessions.

Nice explanation. FVV is still nice surprise, but the longer this experiment goes on the better scouting reports get and his impact will diminish. His best month was November and there was a dip in almost every category in December. With Delon balling he might be reduced to role Lorenzo played when Wright was injured, even if Powell won't find grove, we are still deep 2 every position. Also time of rotations might have played part in FVV closing games - wright usually comes into play as 1st player from the bench - he mostly plays in two stretches - ending 1st/starting 2nd and ending 3rd/most of the 4th. If he closes in second stretch that's about 15 minutes straight on the floor, so we might consider a little change here to give him a breather before clutch minutes. He looked spry though in same situation last night so it might not be a concern after all.

[planetmars]

Nice explanation. FVV is still nice surprise, but the longer this experiment goes on the better scouting reports get and his impact will diminish. His best month was November and there was a dip in almost every category in December. With Delon balling he might be reduced to role Lorenzo played when Wright was injured, even if Powell won't find grove, we are still deep 2 every position. Also time of rotations might have played part in FVV closing games - wright usually comes into play as 1st player from the bench - he mostly plays in two stretches - ending 1st/starting 2nd and ending 3rd/most of the 4th. If he closes in second stretch that's about 15 minutes straight on the floor, so we might consider a little change here to give him a breather before clutch minutes. He looked spry though in same situation last night so it might not be a concern after all.

Didn't know BBR showed line up stats like that in a game. Thanks for sharing the link!

Always learning something new on this board

[LJ2]

Haha we hated Casey for this and he turned out to be ahead of the curve. 2-3 PG's is not at all unusual anymore.

If Casey wins CoY I will buy a Dwane Casey poster and put it up in my basement and I ain't joking. I need to find one of him flashing that ring.

We hated him for a lot of things that he was ahead of the curve on. All those pages wasted on why JV doesn't get more burn...