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SI's Eastern Conference Rankings - Raps 10th

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  • #16
    planetmars wrote: View Post
    ESPN had them at 10th as well:
    http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95...east-standings

    The pessimism is most likely due to the fact that Toronto did not get any major talent in the offseason (no high draft picks, no key free agents) and other teams did. Organic growth should signify some improvement but they usually don't use that when coming up with mock standings.

    Since ESPN actually had records beside each team, I wanted to see what the 'lottery' projection would have looked like.

    14. Dallas - 39-43
    13. Portland/Detroit - 38-44
    11. NOLA - 37-45
    10. LA - 36-46
    9. Toronto - 33-49
    8. Milwaukee - 31-51
    7. Utah - 32-50
    6. Sacramento - 30-52
    5. Boston - 29-53
    4. Charlotte 26-56
    3. Orlando 24-58
    2. Phoenix - 22-60
    1. Philly - 20-62


    So how would tankers feel about getting 9th in the lottery?
    I'd be pretty pissed.

    Axel wrote: View Post
    9th is ok, but it just shows how close we are to the top 5 range anyway. All the more reason to pull the trigger imo.
    Exactly.

    Comment


    • #17
      Axel wrote: View Post
      9th is ok, but it just shows how close we are to the top 5 range anyway. All the more reason to pull the trigger imo.
      I don't reallly agree with this. I think there's a bigger gap here than what's being indicated.

      Toronto is in a group with Cleveland, Washington, Atlanta and Detroit out East. And maybe teams like Portland, NOLA, LA and Dallas out west (in terms of wins).

      These teams are all quite a lot better than Milwaukee, Utah, Sacramento, Boston, Charlotte, Orlando, Philly and Phoenix. Even dumping Gay might not make us as bad as those teams are.

      Comment


      • #18
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        I remember being so angry at Hollinger last year with 33 wins predicted. We showed him! *jk*

        I guess they are looking at the rest of the league and thinking the Raptors did not improve as much as others or, more likely, they think a sell-off is coming sooner than later.
        I'll go back to something I've been saying for a long time around here: you can't rely on guys to post career numbers in order to succeed.

        If you look at the Raps, a lot of people last year were upbeat because they anticipated a guy like Derozan improving and a guy like Lowry excelling in a new role (and a few were even excited about Bargs). Yet, you look at their numbers last year vs. their career numbers, they are pretty much right in line across the board. Guys basically are what they are. Now I know people will say "look at Amir!". And they're right, he did improve materially. But the point is not that it never happens, the point is that you can't count on it happening.

        I hope that Gay and Lowry and Derozan all have career years and Val breaks out. It would be awesome. They'd have a decent team and make the playoffs. But when you're counting on all of that happening you have no margin for error.

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        • #19
          I still think the Raptors have the edge over the wizards and the cavs(unless Bynum is 100% healthy).

          And the Nets and Knicks could be one injury away from missing the playoffs.

          Assuming every Raptor is healthy till the end of the season.

          Comment


          • #20
            TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
            I still think the Raptors have the edge over the wizards and the cavs(unless Bynum is 100% healthy).

            And the Nets and Knicks could be one injury away from missing the playoffs.

            Assuming every Raptor is healthy till the end of the season.
            If John Wall is healthy, then the Wizards are likely better than the Raps. John Wall being healthy is a big if though.
            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

            Comment


            • #21
              TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
              I still think the Raptors have the edge over the wizards and the cavs(unless Bynum is 100% healthy).

              And the Nets and Knicks could be one injury away from missing the playoffs.

              Assuming every Raptor is healthy till the end of the season.
              If Bynum returns to old form, Cavs are pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

              And you can never make predictions based on assuming full health. Although I'd certainly like that to happen, hopefully Bargs took the injury bug to NY.
              Last edited by isaacthompson; Fri Aug 16, 2013, 01:12 PM.
              Twitter - @thekid_it

              Comment


              • #22
                isaacthompson wrote: View Post
                If Bynum returns to old form, Cavs are pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

                And you can never make predictions based on assuming full health. Although I'd certainly like that to happen, hopefully Bargs took the injury bug to NY.
                I think its easier to assume that players will be healthy rather than be able to point out who will be injured.

                This is not a sarcastic question, how do you make predictions? do you take into consideration injuries? and be able to point out who will be injured and how that injury will affect the team's outcome?

                Comment


                • #23
                  TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                  I think its easier to assume that players will be healthy rather than be able to point out who will be injured.

                  This is not a sarcastic question, how do you make predictions? do you take into consideration injuries? and be able to point out who will be injured and how that injury will affect the team's outcome?
                  That seems a little naive to me. There are players who have injury history and are statistically more probable to get injured again. There are a myriad of reasons for these players: poor physical conditioning, undersized for position, aggressive style of play or just plain back luck; and while we can't predict every injury, there are certainly trends that do exist and have to be taken into account when evaluating players/teams.

                  Bynum is definitely one of those players. Players his size often struggle to stay healthy because of their pure size is a burden on their own body, so ligaments, joints, bones and muscles are under additional strain just through simple existence. A healthy Bynum is a fantastic asset. The fact that Bynum wasn't a top free agent just shows that many GMs must feel the same way.
                  Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                  If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                    I think its easier to assume that players will be healthy rather than be able to point out who will be injured.

                    This is not a sarcastic question, how do you make predictions? do you take into consideration injuries? and be able to point out who will be injured and how that injury will affect the team's outcome?
                    To be clear, I'm not arguing for assuming players will get injured, because it's pretty much the same as assuming players will stay healthy. There's no right or wrong assumption because they both relatively have the same amount of likeliness (unless, like Axel pointed out, there is a history of injuries related to the player).

                    I said this in another thread, but this is why I don't really understand the point of doing summer rankings and standings. Does the media base these standings solely based on talent? They must, because making up variables like player injuries or players breaking out would be a total guess.

                    So in conclusion, nobody can make (accurate) predictions.
                    Last edited by isaacthompson; Fri Aug 16, 2013, 02:31 PM.
                    Twitter - @thekid_it

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
                      I think its easier to assume that players will be healthy rather than be able to point out who will be injured.

                      This is not a sarcastic question, how do you make predictions? do you take into consideration injuries? and be able to point out who will be injured and how that injury will affect the team's outcome?
                      I think it depends on who's making the prediction and if there is any bias in their analysis. They should use historic numbers and project what athletes will do.. they should look at injury history, chemistry, the coach, the schedule, the changes made to other teams, etc.

                      In the end it's all just a guess and most papers do it to elicit feedback and hits. As far as I know, nobody can predict the future so all it is is a guess. ESPN however predicted correctly last season so they already have some credibility because of that even though they may be a bunch of #clowns.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        isaacthompson wrote: View Post
                        To be clear, I'm not arguing for assuming players will get injured, because it's pretty much the same as assuming players will stay healthy. There's no right or wrong assumption because they both relatively have the same amount of likeliness (unless, like Axel pointed out, there is a history of injuries related to the player).

                        I said this in another thread, but this is why I don't really understand the point of doing summer rankings and standings. Does the media base these standings solely based on talent? They must, because making up variables like player injuries or players breaking out would be a total guess.

                        So in conclusion, nobody can make predictions.
                        I agree that summer rankings are basically completely useless, but sadly there is nothing else to talk about

                        I think most of the writers who do these exercises, base their opinions more on players they expect to breakout and how teams would function rather than injuries. Even with Bynum, I'd wager that Mannix probably factored in that Bynum would miss x number of games, because he has always missed at least x number of games in a season, but overall expects him to play this season.
                        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Craig wrote: View Post
                          100% because I want a Canadian Superstar, playing in Canada.

                          I hope TL does EVERYTHING in his power to get Wiggans. Lie, cheat, steal. The NBA needs Wiggans in Canada.
                          Last i checked Ujiri was the GM. I don't think TL has too much of a say when it comes to building the team, that's Ujiri's job

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            isaacthompson wrote: View Post
                            If Bynum returns to old form, Cavs are pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

                            And you can never make predictions based on assuming full health. Although I'd certainly like that to happen, hopefully Bargs took the injury bug to NY.
                            Even if Bynum does come back moderately healthy he's still not going to be as good as he used to be. He's gone through 2 knee surgeries over the coarse of 1 year and on top of that he's kind of an idiot (i.e goes bowling when he just had surgery on one knee). I don't see the Cavs being all that great, i think the Wizards are the biggest threat

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Axel wrote: View Post
                              That seems a little naive to me. There are players who have injury history and are statistically more probable to get injured again. There are a myriad of reasons for these players: poor physical conditioning, undersized for position, aggressive style of play or just plain back luck; and while we can't predict every injury, there are certainly trends that do exist and have to be taken into account when evaluating players/teams.

                              Bynum is definitely one of those players. Players his size often struggle to stay healthy because of their pure size is a burden on their own body, so ligaments, joints, bones and muscles are under additional strain just through simple existence. A healthy Bynum is a fantastic asset. The fact that Bynum wasn't a top free agent just shows that many GMs must feel the same way.
                              It is naive if youre putting the words that i said in a different context, or if you read it as an independent sentence.

                              If you tie it to my post before that one, then it would make more sense. I agree there are historical data on injuries, but you cant predict when those injury will happen. Some players get injured in the beginning of the season, some in the middle, and some in the latter part. Like with Lowry, last year, he got injured at beginning of the season. the year before that, close to the end. the year before that, he just missed few games throughout the season and the year before that, he missed games mid-season.

                              Yes, you can say a player may be injured, but you cant say when. and when definitely has an impact of the team's outcome.

                              on bynum, hence the parenthesis unless Bynum is 100% healthy

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Fair predictions I think. Raps didn't make any blockbuster deals other than getting rid of bargs, so people won't expect much *cough cough Blue Jays. I see this as motivation for Derozan, Gay, and Casey as this is the start of a new era. No more excuses this time, can't blame bargs, colangelo.

                                Masai has done a decent job acquiring young pieces and fixing the coaching personnel to help casey. So I'm expecting the 2011 raptors defense with a much improved offense, not relying so much on isos. Raps after all were a .500 team after getting gay.

                                regarding the rankings though, bulls are ranked too high regardless if rose is coming back. pacers are the 2nd best team in the east. brooklyn will either be the 2008 celtics, 2010 heat or 2012 lakers.

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