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Are Raptors Creating A New Trend?

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  • Are Raptors Creating A New Trend?

    Was looking at the boxscores from the game last night and one thing that really jumped out at me was the FG attempts. Raptors had 99, the Knicks had 76. That's 23 more shot attempts which is a huge game altering factor. I went back and looked at the previous games the Raps have played so far this season and through 8 games Raps have crushed the teams they've played by a total of 84 additional FG attempts (Raps 742, opponents 658), on average 10 more FG attempts a game. That's not a fluke so it would make sense to assume they are purposely trying to win by taking more shots than their opponents.

    The Harden lead Rockets wanted to take more 3's than other teams, the Warriors played small, but Raps are doing something equally amazing to me. They're creating more shots for themselves by coaching deflections, steals, offensive boards, really any form of turnover they can create while keeping their own turnovers to a minimum. Teams they've played through 8 games have turned it over 142 time, the Raps only 101.

    Maybe this didn't deserve it's own thread, but I thought it was really interesting and if this indeed is a new philosophy for how the Raptors are approaching the game then you can use it as a way to project future moves. For example we love talking trades and free agent targets around here. If Raps want guys that can force turnovers then you can look at players that lead the league in that area or have the tools to do it well, if coached to (is there a site or stat that shows which players lead in forced turnovers). You might also say they may want to stay away from players that are prone to turnovers.

    Another thought, how do teams counter the Raps when they are getting turned over left and right? They have to protect the ball which often means putting another guard on the court (better ball handler) and take out the C (normally weakest ball handler). That generally will create a size mismatch for the Raps who play tall, long players. This is the path to what should be everyone's favorite line up of FVV, Trent, Barnes, OG and Siakam..

    You could even use this philosophy (if it is their philosophy) to create arguments as to why some players get minutes and others don't. Banton is long and gets deflections vs. Flynn is smaller and doesn't hit the passing lanes as hard. Or Precious is a much better rebounder than Khem so those secured possessions equal fewer shot attempts for opposing teams.

    Anyways I'm more of a boxscore guy, so perhaps those of you that look at advanced stats can support or dispel the idea.

    Last thought. Despite taking a lot more shots than their opponents the Raps haven't had a lot of blow out type wins yet (Boston and Knicks the exceptions). That would indicate they are losing the battle in FG% (should have probably looked at that stat before posting, but I think it's reasonable to assume and I'm getting impatient scrolling back and forth on espn.com). Precious career FG% 49.7-this season 35.9, OG career FG% 47.5-this season 40.4%, Trent career FG% 41-this season 38.7, FVV career FG% 40-this season he's up at 41.9. Well what happens when guys start to normalize towards their career averages? What happens when Siakam who has a career FG%48.8 returns? What happens when Scottie returns with his team leading FG% of 55.1?

    You should be excited Raps fans.


  • #2
    Being #1 in offensive rebounds will lead to more shot attempts. The NBA TV announcers talked about it yesterday during the game. How are the Raptors 15th in offensive efficiency when they're near the bottom in FG%, 3P% and so on? Because of shots off offensive rebounds.

    I guess this is the game plan with how the Raptors will play with defenders and long players. Turn other teams over, run the break, play at a fast pace, move the ball, get offensive rebounds and make the other teams scramble. They were very successful at it last night against the Knicks.

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    • #3
      If you are sending guys to the offensive glass you better be able to get back in a hurry if you are not successful. Our guys can do that, no big lumbering slow guys. Helps not give up transition hoops when you can crash hard and get back quick.
      Twitter @WJ_FINDLAY

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      • #4
        A.I wrote: View Post
        Being #1 in offensive rebounds will lead to more shot attempts. The NBA TV announcers talked about it yesterday during the game. How are the Raptors 15th in offensive efficiency when they're near the bottom in FG%, 3P% and so on? Because of shots off offensive rebounds.

        I guess this is the game plan with how the Raptors will play with defenders and long players. Turn other teams over, run the break, play at a fast pace, move the ball, get offensive rebounds and make the other teams scramble. They were very successful at it last night against the Knicks.
        I'm excited to see what the offense will look like when the shooting normalizes. It theoretically should equate to big points. I just wonder if the Raps can keep creating these huge mismatches in shot attempts. It's amazing when you look at the difference.

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        • #5
          WJF wrote: View Post
          If you are sending guys to the offensive glass you better be able to get back in a hurry if you are not successful. Our guys can do that, no big lumbering slow guys. Helps not give up transition hoops when you can crash hard and get back quick.
          You can see even in how Raps really get down in their defensive stances so they are level with the ball. Much easier to get into guys and poke at the ball, get deflections. It's all about forcing turnovers and limiting our own.

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          • #6
            It's absolutely by design to force turnovers and get OREBS to gain extra possessions. Turnovers are obvious, but I've always said that elite offensive rebounders (guys like Montrezl Harrell and TT) are massively undervalued. Nurse has realized that hack + turnovers and is turning that into a philosophy possibly.

            Knowing Nurse, it couldn't have been the career-high 36 points from OG Anunoby that shocked him. It's not that Anunoby's 13-for-27 shooting night and total takeover for the Raptors wasn't impressive, it's that Nurse doesn't care so much about any one player's offensive performance. Instead, he was looking at the lopsided shot disparity that favored the Raptors, who outshot the Knicks 99 to 76, thanks to two other numbers Nurse obsesses over, 16 forced turnovers, and 13 offensive rebounds.

            Those numbers are gold in the NBA. The analytics suggest teams who outshoot their opponents by five field goals have a significant edge, Nurse said last week. So Nurse has made that the goal for this team this season, force turnovers, grab offensive rebounds, and do whatever it takes to get at least five more shot attempts up than the opponent.

            The shooting disparity allowed Toronto to hang around in the first half despite being outshot 52.6% to 31.2% from behind the arc. Once Toronto's defense ramped up in the second half, the Knicks cooled and the Raptors rode Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr, and Fred VanVleet to the surprise victory.
            https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/...ew-york-knicks

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            • #7
              golden wrote: View Post
              It's absolutely by design to force turnovers and get OREBS to gain extra possessions. Turnovers are obvious, but I've always said that elite offensive rebounders (guys like Montrezl Harrell and TT) are massively undervalued. Nurse has realized that hack + turnovers and is turning that into a philosophy possibly.



              https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/...ew-york-knicks
              "Team that shoots more has a statistical edge, according to super advanced mathematical geniuses"

              Jesus Christ, who knew??
              9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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              • #8
                LJ2 wrote: View Post

                I'm excited to see what the offense will look like when the shooting normalizes. It theoretically should equate to big points. I just wonder if the Raps can keep creating these huge mismatches in shot attempts. It's amazing when you look at the difference.
                It's incredibly fun watching Raptors basketball this year and all the turnovers we cause. I almost feel bad for the other teams. If we were shooting league average FG and 3PT holy shit look out. We'd be in a bunch of blowouts by the 2nd half, and we make it so damn hard for teams to get back in it because you just can't go on a long run against us, a steal and transition basket is always lurking around the corner. I'm starting to feel like once we get a lead it's all over, chalk it up as a win.

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                • #9
                  Really great thread idea. NBA.com/stats keeps track of hustle stats:
                  https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle-leaders/

                  I don't know how to get historical data, as this is just from this season (so only 6-8 games in) but it gives you an idea as to guys who can help gain an extra possession or two.

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                  • #10
                    LJ2 wrote: View Post

                    You can see even in how Raps really get down in their defensive stances so they are level with the ball. Much easier to get into guys and poke at the ball, get deflections. It's all about forcing turnovers and limiting our own.
                    Kudos to Nurse for implementing this defensive method. I think he stole a trick or two from Kawhi as well. That fun guy not only brought us a chip, he also influenced us in many ways.
                    The league changes in officiating also helps us on defense so far.
                    Last edited by Kagemusha; Tue Nov 2, 2021, 02:55 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Kagemusha wrote: View Post

                      Kudos to Nurse for implementing this defensive method. I think he stole a trick or two from Kawhi as well. That fun guy not only brought us a chip, he also influenced us in many ways.
                      The league changes in officiating also helps us on defense so far.
                      The rule changes are really the x factor here.

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                      • #12
                        planetmars wrote: View Post
                        Really great thread idea. NBA.com/stats keeps track of hustle stats:
                        https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle-leaders/

                        I don't know how to get historical data, as this is just from this season (so only 6-8 games in) but it gives you an idea as to guys who can help gain an extra possession or two.
                        Right?! You can draw so much insight and theories into the moves the Raps have made when you look at it from the perspective of what they want to achieve in the game. For example Champagnie was a strong rebounder in college (8th in the nation), and particularly good at grabbing offensive boards. Raps want extra possessions so naturally they'd have interest in him where they were picking in the draft.

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                        • #13
                          LJ2 wrote: View Post

                          Right?! You can draw so much insight and theories into the moves the Raps have made when you look at it from the perspective of what they want to achieve in the game. For example Champagnie was a strong rebounder in college (8th in the nation), and particularly good at grabbing offensive boards. Raps want extra possessions so naturally they'd have interest in him where they were picking in the draft.
                          Makes a lot of sense. They want to build around their core and the traits their core gives them. Even Svi has a knack of getting back a possession even though his defense isn't as great as others. We know Achiuawa and Birch are good offensive rebounders. Trent is elite at deflections already.

                          Maybe this is why they were in talks for Simmons since Ben could be elite at some of the things they want (offensive rebounds, deflections, steals, etc). And would take him even if he can't shoot.

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                          • #14
                            KeonClark wrote: View Post

                            "Team that shoots more has a statistical edge, according to super advanced mathematical geniuses"

                            Jesus Christ, who knew??
                            I think you need to change up your breakfast routine, Keon.

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                            • #15
                              Well, I mean the old four factors includes turnovers and OREBs for a reason.... not sure this is new thinking in terms of the Raptors.

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