Why does such an ugly offense have such a high ORTG?

[Nilanka]

Isn't that on the players to find the open man. But I also think our problem was that we had no three point shooters on the team last years playoffs. We only had 3 guys on the roster that could actually hit the three. (Gv lowry and kinda Patterson) but Casey still got ridiculed for playing all three together for weird reasons.

I'm sure Casey tells them to pass in that situation, he's not that stupid. He's the coach of a multi million dollar sports franchise, you don't get there by not knowing that. Everyone knows heat your supposto pass when your doubled, there just weren't that many easy passes.

It's on the players to pass, but it's on the coach to prepare his troops. For this one particular game that the tweet was referencing, the Raptors looked completely lost on how to beat such aggressive defense.

[Cody73]

The Nets did this to us last year, and we had no answer:

The Nets are doubling EVERYBODY on EVERY play and the Raptors are unable to rotate the ball for a decent look. Pathetic.

— Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) May 3, 2014

Let's hope Casey has a few tricks up his sleeve....

Tricks, you say?

[yabadabayolo]

The Nets did this to us last year, and we had no answer:

The Nets are doubling EVERYBODY on EVERY play and the Raptors are unable to rotate the ball for a decent look. Pathetic.

— Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) May 3, 2014

Let's hope Casey has a few tricks up his sleeve....

Isn't that on the players to find the open man. But I also think our problem was that we had no three point shooters on the team last years playoffs. We only had 3 guys on the roster that could actually hit the three. (Gv lowry and kinda Patterson) but Casey still got ridiculed for playing all three together for weird reasons.

I'm sure Casey tells them to pass in that situation, he's not that stupid. He's the coach of a multi million dollar sports franchise, you don't get there by not knowing that. Everyone knows heat your supposto pass when your doubled, there just weren't that many easy passes.

[Nilanka]

The Nets did this to us last year, and we had no answer:

The Nets are doubling EVERYBODY on EVERY play and the Raptors are unable to rotate the ball for a decent look. Pathetic.

— Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) May 3, 2014

Let's hope Casey has a few tricks up his sleeve....

[slaw]

When I last checked we were 10th out of 10 amongst the top 10 offences at passes per game.

We're an anomaly, which means this just might be unsustainable.

Maybe. Last year (by ORTG at BR) they were 10th and this year they are 3rd. That's ~164 games. I'm not sure how big of sample size we need but two seasons seems indicative.

There are certainly legitimate criticisms to be made of the offense but they are tactical and primarily centre around end of quarter/late game scenarios. Do you need a complete strategic overall to fix those issues? Maybe. Or maybe there are less drastic solutions.

[Mindlessness]

New Jersey Devils have a bunch of Stanley Cups making eyes bleed. Effectiveness and Aesthetics are not always the same thing

When I last checked we were 10th out of 10 amongst the top 10 offences at passes per game.

We're an anomaly, which means this just might be unsustainable.

[Jrice9]

Thanks for the breakdown.

Still oddly efficient. Hmm

Still makes my eyes bleed and makes me want to club baby seals

New Jersey Devils have a bunch of Stanley Cups making eyes bleed. Effectiveness and Aesthetics are not always the same thing

[OldSkoolCool]

So I switched out JJ, AJ, and JV for imaginary players who play their positions and shoot at a average TS% at the same FGA/G and FTA/G.

I used ESPN to figure out the average, which I took as the median not the mean.

JJ and AJ count as PFs. JV counts as a C. (to both ESPN and B-Ref JJ usually plays PF)

For Cs it is .553%
For PFs it is .538%


I basically played with B-Ref's version of the TS% formula (you'll have to scroll down to TS% and TSA to find it) until I basically took the above players' FGA/G, and FTA/G and changed their TS% to average.

JV would score 10.78 PPG if he shot a .553 in TS% vs. 12.1 PPG currently (-1.32 PPG).
JJ would score 7.06 PPG if he shot .538 in TS% vs. 8.1 PPG currently (-1.04).
AJ would score 8.4 PPG if he shot .538 in TS%. vs. 9.4 PPG currently. (-1)

Overall a decrease of 3.36 PPG.

I inserted those into this hell of an ORTG formula (still way easier than B-Ref's version holy shit), basically just taking away the overall number of PPG (which is 104.3 and will be 100.94 under all this) the team scores and keeping everything else the same as it is now.

We get a ORTG of 107.815 which would rank 10th amongst all teams.

EDIT: Using Dan's ORTG formula from the next page. (Using ESPN's Pace)

We get a ORTG of 105.7, which would rank 14th. (Ranking it amongst ESPN's OFF EFF, we would come 9th)

EDIT #2: Using B-Ref's Pace on Dan's formula.

We get a ORtg of 108.65 which would rank 7th amongst all teams.


*All ORtg rankings are from B-Ref.

Thanks for the breakdown.

Still oddly efficient. Hmm

Still makes my eyes bleed and makes me want to club baby seals

[raptors999]

You want an easy ORTG formula that essentially describes what ORTG is supposed to provide?

PPG/Pace*100

Too much tricky math. Divide and multiply- I'm not a wizard.

[DanH]

You want an easy ORTG formula that essentially describes what ORTG is supposed to provide?

PPG/Pace*100

[Mindlessness]

So I switched out JJ, AJ, and JV for imaginary players who play their positions and shoot at a average TS% at the same FGA/G and FTA/G.

I used ESPN to figure out the average, which I took as the median not the mean.

JJ and AJ count as PFs. JV counts as a C. (to both ESPN and B-Ref JJ usually plays PF)

For Cs it is .553%
For PFs it is .538%


I basically played with B-Ref's version of the TS% formula (you'll have to scroll down to TS% and TSA to find it) until I basically took the above players' FGA/G, and FTA/G and changed their TS% to average.

JV would score 10.78 PPG if he shot a .553 in TS% vs. 12.1 PPG currently (-1.32 PPG).
JJ would score 7.06 PPG if he shot .538 in TS% vs. 8.1 PPG currently (-1.04).
AJ would score 8.4 PPG if he shot .538 in TS%. vs. 9.4 PPG currently. (-1)

Overall a decrease of 3.36 PPG.

I inserted those into this hell of an ORTG formula (still way easier than B-Ref's version holy shit), basically just taking away the overall number of PPG (which is 104.3 and will be 100.94 under all this) the team scores and keeping everything else the same as it is now.

We get a ORTG of 107.815 which would rank 10th amongst all teams.

EDIT: Using Dan's ORTG formula from the next page. (Using ESPN's Pace)

We get a ORTG of 105.7, which would rank 14th. (Ranking it amongst ESPN's OFF EFF, we would come 9th)

EDIT #2: Using B-Ref's Pace on Dan's formula.

We get a ORtg of 108.65 which would rank 7th amongst all teams.


*All ORtg rankings are from B-Ref.

[raptors999]

I guess so but the difference is that ISO ball prior to the trade wasn't good and this one is?

Eliminate Gay and the whole system collapses. Casey pretty much put the whole offense on Gays shoulders. Didn't even give anybody else a job but get out of the way. Even for ISO it was really ISO

[Jrice9]

The offense and defense in the playoff is the scrambling, iso heavy one everyone is watching now. The offense and defense everyone enjoyed was the one immediately after the trade when nobody knew the system and just playing ball

I guess so but the difference is that ISO ball prior to the trade wasn't good and this one is?

[Chr1s1anL]

I think this is a good topic for discussion. ORTG is an interesting formula, in that a lot of the key numbers (Shooting percentages, for example) are not actually in the formula. They are simply reflected in the Pts side of things. But when you approach the question from the opposite side, we're also in the top five in the league for TS%. But if you look at eFG% (which takes into account 2s and 3s, but ignores FTs), we drop down to 8th, while the other teams near the top in TS% are also near the top in eFG%. So yeah, our ORTG is more heavily impacted by free-throws than other top ORTG teams.

It's interesting that several of the top teams in ORTG are amongst the worst teams in ORB% numbers... (Hawks, Clippers, Mavs, Spurs, Warriors are all in the bottom bottom 10 in offensive rebounds). Even though we're middle of the pack in ORB% ourselves, we're better than a lot of the other teams near the top of the ORTG rankings.

Most of us agree that the offence looks ugly. And at least statistically, it's hard to argue that it isn't effective. Though we can argue that it's not sustainable. The low turnover numbers are a product of the offensive style, so those should be sustainable. The FT% should be a sustainable number, because they are one of the numbers least impacted by factors outside of our team. And we don't have any bad FT shooters that the other team can key on.
Our ability to draw FTs is probably the greatest question-mark in terms of sustainability of these numbers... some people say there's a looser whistle in the playoffs, some say it's a tighter whistle. Certainly DeRozan's consistency in getting to the line in the playoffs last year was impressive, and Williams has drawing fouls down to an absolute science. But as a fan it's hard to like the idea that a big part of our gameplan relies on the referees, especially since we don't see ourselves as a market that gets the benefit of the calls. I think you need to assume that even in the playoffs, some games are going to be called looser than norm, others tighter than the norm. And our offensive performance is probably going to swing more based on how a game is called than most teams.

And the other factor is how easy it is for another team to lower our FG% by adapting to our offence over the course of a series. This is one of the things I worry about the most in terms of our offence... that it seems easy to gameplan against, and isn't highly adaptable to different defensive looks. Our lack of success against good teams over the last half of the season suggests that it has, to some extent, already been solved.

If this offence wins in the playoffs, that should be all that matters. As much as I hate watching this offence right now, I'll learn to like it if it proves a winning formula. But I'm skeptical.

Really insightful. Thank you

[raptors999]

People say this but its strange because that offence was criticized at times and was statistically worse and struggled in the playoffs.

I think people pine for the old days of last year mostly because it was more aesthetically pleasing (which isn't necessary what wins or is more effective) and because last season was much more fun than this one (because of the surprise and newness of the winning we experienced)

The offense and defense in the playoff is the scrambling, iso heavy one everyone is watching now. The offense and defense everyone enjoyed was the one immediately after the trade when nobody knew the system and just playing ball