Building a contender on a knife's edge?

[Axel]

I think our window is right effing now and the next two years.
Why ?
DD and Lowry aren't going to get materially better than they are right now. They are our best players and the Eastern Conf is pretty wide open this year. Yes the nod goes to the Lebrons accross Lake Erie as the team to beat but anything can happen in the playoffs. The two porcelain dolls that are Love and Irving haven't made a full round of the tong war that is the NBA playoffs yet and while LBJ is a warrior but even warriors get nicked up during the long season in the NBA. A nicked up Lebron at 31 is materially different than a nicked up Lebron at 26.

The Ice fisherman is likely to get better but for right now he and Biz bring enough at the 5. CoJo is a pretty reliable backup ballhandler and has PO experience with the Spurs. Carroll when he gets back should be fully healed up and will have short miles on him this season. He is a proven wing defender and has had success against Lebron with Atlanta and lord knows you need defense in the playoffs to get anywhere.

Right now from my cheap seat I think we need to inject a veteran 3 point shooter who is a viable 2nd or 3rd option during crunch time and can space the floor. DD and Kyle are our options right now. HOWEVER they will pass the ball off to a guy they believe can make that big 3pt shot. Right now both PPat and Ross lack the cojones/confidence to take that late game shot.

Raps have enough there right now and the window is open wide enough to take a shot this year without mortgaging all that much. Yes its going to take a rotation player and pick or young guy and a pick but the time to go is now. The lord hates a coward.

Targets are out there that fit the engineering spec...Omar Casspi... Ryan Anderson....Mirza Teletovic .. Trevor Ariza...to rattle off a few.... but the guy who comes in will absolutely have to be trusted by DD and Kyle that he can take and make that shot when it matters and won't wilt.

Who are you going to get that is going to make a difference with this core? None of those names you mentioned really move the needle.

At least with a younger core, with the return of any Lowry/DD trades, you have more time, opportunities and flexibility to find someone who will make a difference.

But you are right, KL and DD won't be better than they are now.

PS - isn't Carroll supposed to be that "other" guy - he signed here in part due to a promised larger offensive role.

[Axel]

Have to agree with jwash here. That jv led team will be 40-50 win and a 1st/2nd round team at best, which is exactly what the team is right now. What's the point of getting back to the same level?

So you don't think that achieving the same level of success with a core that is substantially younger and not capped out is a better situation?

[mcHAPPY]

Have to agree with jwash here. That jv led team will be 40-50 win and a 1st/2nd round team at best, which is exactly what the team is right now. What's the point of getting back to the same level?

Hard to know what a possible $35m in cap space and/or assets received from potential trades could do for the team.

[hotfuzz]

So you don't think that achieving the same level of success with a core that is substantially younger and not capped out is a better situation?

Hard to really say without knowing who the players are. You better bet we'll need at least 2 all-star level players to get there and if they're all stars, they'll demand near max money or at least as much as demar/lowry make now. Hard to tell.

[JWash]

Hard to really say without knowing who the players are. You better bet we'll need at least 2 all-star level players to get there and if they're all stars, they'll demand near max money or at least as much as demar/lowry make now. Hard to tell.

Actually those players will demand more than DD is due to make. Considering he's due to get 25M per year ish, and depending on their experience they might be making 35-40M per year because the cap is rising even higher in 2017.

I think you've got to make a decision. Stick with this core and keep trying to pull a Boston/Houston where you eventually luck out and consolidate assets for a legitimate star to take you over the top. Or blow it up and tank to get that superstar and rebuild with JV + product of tanking + assets you get back for DD/Lowry/DC + Knicks pick. Trying to strafe some middle ground being average with only JV as a proven starter sounds a heck of a lot like the Raptors teams in the early 2010s, late 2000s. Have absolutely zero interest in a repeat of that nonsense where we're bang average and pick in the late lottery every year (or have no picks at all) or even being slightly better than that and being a playoff team but not one with title aspirations.

Go all in or bottom out, to me those are the two smart options. We need a superstar, period that's the one thing that remains true in all cases.

[JWash]

Hard to know what a possible $35m in cap space and/or assets received from potential trades could do for the team.

By 2017, 35M in cap space gets you a DeRozan and a spare part. How are you planning on enticing superstar players to come here via free agency without established talent on the roster?

[OldSkoolCool]

People are willing to sacrifice a whole lot just so JV can get his. These moves you guys are mentioning only benefit him.

You guys are excepting Ross to be a consistent starter when he can't even be a consistent reserve. Demare Carroll would not be as good cause defensive would pay more attention to him. They would be able to close out on him because their not worried about anyone else. Once you close on Carroll nothing else he can do.

You say draft Murray but, we don't even know good Murray will be. For all we know he could be the Austin Rivers. Too much risk just so JV can finally get his.

Really surprised how little impact people think KL/DD have on the games. I feel like I'm always repeating this but, here I go again. It is not easy to win games in the NBA!

Murray is a name to associate with. We could substitute "Sir Snooch McHappy the third" as the future player to make you happy about the unnamed player X that we could draft to take us to the next level.

You get so caught up on the small picture. Look bigger.

Have to agree with jwash here. That jv led team will be 40-50 win and a 1st/2nd round team at best, which is exactly what the team is right now. What's the point of getting back to the same level?

Same level. Higher ceiling. ie not capped out. more opportunity. more draft picks.

The point is obvious so the golden boy finally get his.

I'm going to nip this in the bud.

Not about JV. I don't care if JV averages 5pts and 5rbds or 30/30...the "JV system" is to design a proper offense around a super efficient big...which is a good basketball idea. But I guess you'll be offended by that because DD won't be getting his anymore

About the future progression of the team. If the team could have a similar performance without KL/DD...the ability to become better is easier financially, as well as internally (developmentally).

KL will return a very nice pick or young player

JV will get better

Powell, Wright, Bruno, and Bebe could all start to see floor time and may develop. Under the current status quo they will not get significant playing time to develop and the will flame out.

Hard to really say without knowing who the players are. You better bet we'll need at least 2 all-star level players to get there and if they're all stars, they'll demand near max money or at least as much as demar/lowry make now. Hard to tell.

Well DD's production is not worth the max, even though he could be making the max because the market disparity right now.

This is a very good time to NOT SPEND MONEY.

Say we draft someone who is truly a max worthy player? Or we end up with two players producing at DD's level on rookie scale contracts? We have options and flexibility

Or we could put all our eggs into one basket that has got beaten in two straight first rounds to mediocre at best teams

[JWash]

Murray is a name to associate with. We could substitute "Sir Snooch McHappy the third" as the future player to make you happy about the unnamed player X that we could draft to take us to the next level.

You get so caught up on the small picture. Look bigger.



Same level. Higher ceiling. ie not capped out. more opportunity. more draft picks.



I'm going to nip this in the bud.

Not about JV. I don't care if JV averages 5pts and 5rbds or 30/30...the "JV system" is to design a proper offense around a super efficient big...which is a good basketball idea. But I guess you'll be offended by that because DD won't be getting his anymore

About the future progression of the team. If the team could have a similar performance without KL/DD...the ability to become better is easier financially, as well as internally (developmentally).

KL will return a very nice pick or young player

JV will get better

Powell, Wright, Bruno, and Bebe could all start to see floor time and may develop. Under the current status quo they will not get significant playing time to develop and the will flame out.



Well DD's production is not worth the max, even though he could be making the max because the market disparity right now.

This is a very good time to NOT SPEND MONEY.

Say we draft someone who is truly a max worthy player? Or we end up with two players producing at DD's level on rookie scale contracts? We have options and flexibility

Or we could put all our eggs into one basket that has got beaten in two straight first rounds to mediocre at best teams

This is where you're completely wrong.

Yes DeRozan is going to get close to the max right now. What many of us are expecting now is about 5yr/125M.

But the thing is after this season, the max for a DeRozan is going to be 5yr/$175M. It'll drop a little lower than that the following season but still be much higher than the 5/125M that we're probably due to pay DD. That's a difference of around $10M per year, so no, actually right now is the time you want to be paying a guy like DD the max because it's only going to be about 70% of the max a year from now.

NBA players are only getting more expensive after this offseason. Not less. There's another 20% cap jump coming before things stagnate.

[mcHAPPY]

By 2017, 35M in cap space gets you a DeRozan and a spare part. How are you planning on enticing superstar players to come here via free agency without established talent on the roster?

There are max players and then there are guys who get paid the max.

Then there are max players who don't have 10+ years experience getting paid much less than $35M per year.

Then you don't know what the trade fruits are.

Tough to have definite discussions about what could be.

It is easier to have a discussion about what the Raptors are based on previous 2 seasons. We will have to wait to see what happens in playoffs I guess.


Interesting how DD was suppose to be less than $20M. Then $20M. Now $25M. What happens if he wants what he is entitled to? What happens if he wants to leave as he will be entitled to? All this talk for nothing. Going to be another interesting off season for Toronto.

[yabadabayolo]

i dont see the benifit of trading lowry and dd, only to then HOPE the new teams gets to the exact same level they are at now.

I think either we gotta double down on what we have, or completely blow it up. But of coarse, the route we take is going to be completely judged by this years playoffs.

anything short of a competetive ECF, or even super comepetive 2nd round and I think we need to start over

[Demographic Shift]

Who are you going to get that is going to make a difference with this core? None of those names you mentioned really move the needle.

At least with a younger core, with the return of any Lowry/DD trades, you have more time, opportunities and flexibility to find someone who will make a difference.

But you are right, KL and DD won't be better than they are now.

PS - isn't Carroll supposed to be that "other" guy - he signed here in part due to a promised larger offensive role.

The core as constructed today (with Carroll back in the lineup) is sufficient at this point in time that you don’t need a seismic addition to lift the effectiveness of the team to a higher level. It’s a single max level skill set that’s needed not a max level player.

We are 17th right now in 3pt% league wide up from 18th a month ago. In a league that values 3pt shooting a move into the top 10 with the addition of a veteran 3pt guy at the 4 that will not cost the farm will in my view make a big difference to how we close out close games during the season and in the playoffs.

Edit. Right now numbers 1 and 2 in the 3PT % made are GSW and SA. Cleveland and OKC are in the top 10. I don't think that's a coincidence.

With the east being pretty wide open this year (the window of opportunity comes along only so often) the Raps can take a shot now. If the team blows a collective tire and flames out then there is still Plan B which can be retooling next year much like we did this year. There should be at least 3 first round picks left to monetize into current assets via trade.
I see the East in three Tiers right now and barring Durant coming East during FA next year the window stays open again.
The Lebrons are the big dogs right now. Next tier is Raps / Bulls / Atlanta and those teams are pretty good. Miami ain’t that good and the rest of the East is OK..not good yet but OK.

If the unthinkable happens and we flame out again in round 1 then the GM will likely have to consider reconstructing his roster and selling off current assets for future ones. He may try it again one more time but thats like Charlie Brown thinking Lucy isn't going to pull that football away .. this time.

So nows the time to take the shot. Swing the bat.Go All In. Go for it on 4th down However you want to frame it .. the situation shapes up that this year the Raps take a shot at getting to the ECF. Sports generally does not reward those who wait to long.

[Barolt]

So nows the time to take the shot. Swing the bat.Go All In. Go for it on 4th down However you want to frame it .. the situation shapes up that this year the Raps take a shot at getting to the ECF. Sports generally does not reward those who wait to long.

You know, you almost had me buying until you finished with 'take a shot at getting to the ECF'. I don't want to 'have a shot at the conference finals'. I want to have a shot at a championship.

[JWash]

i dont see the benifit of trading lowry and dd, only to then hope the new teams gets to the exact same level they are at now.

I think either we gotta double down on what we have, or completely blow it up. but of coarse, the route we take is going to be completely judged by this years playoffs.

Anything short of a competetive ecf, or even super comepetive 2nd round and i think we need to start over

b-i-n-g-o

[Demographic Shift]

You know, you almost had me buying until you finished with 'take a shot at getting to the ECF'. I don't want to 'have a shot at the conference finals'. I want to have a shot at a championship.

Walk before you run. If we are good enough to get to the ECF this year maybe we will be good enough with another addition or two next year to get beyond that milestone.

[Chr1s1anL]

You know, you almost had me buying until you finished with 'take a shot at getting to the ECF'. I don't want to 'have a shot at the conference finals'. I want to have a shot at a championship.

And you think a team lead by JV/Ross is going to give you a shot at championship?