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  • The Number Of Minimum Wins That The Raptors Will Achieve In 10-11 Will Exceed...

    The number of wins that a team can achieve.

    To see who best contributes to that aspect of the game one can follow (Wins Share per 48) WS/48 and Wins Shares stats of their favorite and not so favorite players on the link below. Just click on the name of the player and scroll down to advanced stats. League average for WS/48 is .100 Wins Shares, the more the better. Win Shares for the individual players on a team add up to approximately the total wins that a team actually achieved in that season, not counting the "team factor" see below

    For example Bosh had Wins Shares of 9.6. That means that according to the WS/48 number and the minutes that Bosh played he was statistically responsible for approximately 9.6 of the Raptors wins last season.


    Lets go through the rotation players from last season and see how their numbers in this area stack up.

    Player---------WS/48---------Wins Shares
    -----------------------------------------------
    Bosh ---------.185---------------9.6
    Jack----------.102---------------4.8
    Johnson-------.155---------------4.5
    Calderon------.111---------------4.2
    Bargnani------.072---------------4.2
    Turk----------.071---------------3.4
    DeRozan------.066----------------2.3
    Weems-------.044----------------1.3
    Belinelli-------.049----------------1.2
    Rasho--------.089----------------0.8
    Banks--------.095----------------0.5
    Wright--------.011---------------0.3
    Evans---------.033--------------0.2

    Total---------------------------37.3
    Total actual wins----------------40.0
    ----------------------------------------
    Team factor------------2.7
    ================================

    If you add up the Cavs Win Shares from last season they don't come close to the 61 wins that the Cavs achieved in 09-10. There is a much larger team factor. Team factors include the ability of a player to make the overall team better. James impact on the Cavs overall performance was way beyond his Win Share numbers. I am of the opinion and the numbers support this, a lot more so than Bosh impact on the Raptors team performance.

    WS/48 is impacted greatly by a player's (Usage factor) USG%, eg. Bosh's USG% was a very high 28.7. By contrast Bargnani's was 22.3 and. DeRozan was 18.1 and Johnson only 14.5. So Bosh's Usage factor last season was twice what Johnson's was, which based upon what we saw take place during the Raptors games last season makes total sense.

    The point being is that with Bosh gone the Raptors won't lose all of the 9.6 wins that Bosh was responsible for. They will lose less because his USG% will be allocated among the players now on the roster based upon their WS/48 and minutes played in 10-11.

    Players like DeRozan and Weems should show improved WS/48 especially DeRozan. Kleiza .103 and Barbosa .112 not only have better career WS/48 numbers than those achieved by Turk and Wright last season but their career WS/48 exceed the league average.

    Anderson in his rookies season had WS/48 of .070 a little below Rasho's. However, no reason he can't increase it a bit in his second season in the NBA. Finally their is Ed Davis. I suspect that his WS/48 will be close to the league average of .100.

    Yes other teams have gotten better but other than the Bosh loss so have the Raptors through individual player growth, improved coaching and the addition of Davis, Anderson, Kleiza and Barbosa. The latter three are an improvement over the three that they replaced; i.e., Turk, Wright Rasho.

    Finally six of the key rotation players will now have played together for one full season, which is more than the Raptors group last season had at the beginning of 09-10.

    One can always make the argument that Bosh made the Raptors better beyond the plain numbers. I do not happen to agree with this. I think at best he was neutral and possibly even endothermic to the Raptors team.

    We shall see soon enough. only 48 more days to go until camp opens. The number on the link of course changes daily.

    http://www.hoopsworld.com/


    So it doesn't make sense that the Raptors will win only 30 games in 10-11 or even only 35.

    As I see it 35 will be the absolute minimum that the Raptors win in 10-11 barring any significant injuries. My sense of it is that the number will exceed last season's win total of 40.






    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.html
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Sun Aug 8, 2010, 12:13 PM.
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  • #2
    I was thinking 45 wins for the raps next season
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    • #3
      Mr.Grinch wrote: View Post
      I was thinking 45 wins for the raps next season
      That right now is about at the top of my expectation range and I think that 45 wins would be good enough to get into the playoffs.

      Now I am not predicting 45 wins so nobody should say that I said it. My range right now is between 37 and 45. Since it is summer I tend to be more optimistic so if I was to pick a number of wins at this point I would say between 41 and 45. That number may be subject to change come October 26th
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      • #4
        Minimum 15 , maximum 25.

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        • #5
          Interesting analysis. I don't think a reductionist approach always works, especially if it focuses on just one factor, but these stats are interesting. I also happen to think that Raptors will win 35-40. Even though Bosh was an effective player and losing him has negative results on the team I also think that there are things we gain by the absence of him. Now we don't have one deadly weapon but lots of decent weapons; we have versatility, if one weapon doesn't work we can replace it with another one. Plus I don't think the deadly weapon worked that well last season... However, one thing the team needs is a solid centre, without which the team won't go far. If BC manages to get a decent centre or one of the newcomers somehow step up to fill this position, then I expect a minimum of 35 wins.

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          • #6
            Minimum 20 - Maximum 35

            Too many unknowns with this team yet again plus being average or below average in your starting line up in every position never bode's well for your winning total.

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            • #7
              42 wins

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              • #8
                45 games!?!?!? WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING!?!?!?

                Dude, what are you talking about?
                It's about money

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                • #9
                  Raptor4Ever wrote: View Post
                  Minimum 15 , maximum 25.
                  Max 25 by the completion of games on Jan 31, 2011 I agree.
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                  • #10
                    This is very interesting, but 45 is way too high. If the team gels, and someone steps up big time, then i could maybe MAYBE see 40 wins. I am not optimistic during the off season, so right now i say 30. I dont see this team being so bad we win 25, i say30 to 35 right now.

                    These stats are really interesting at all, but i dont think they are accurate for predicting wins. As of now we only really have 1 season to look at some of these players. Maybe you are right though. Sometimes these things can be accurate as hell.

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                    • #11
                      I think you could just as easily make the opposite argument, that distributing Bosh's touches among lesser skilled offensive players will result in a lower offensive output. I mean he had the ball in his hands most for a good reason, it created high percentage chances for himself and for his team on kickouts and rotation. Where do those similar easy looks come from now in the half court set? What player is going to shift defenses, attract doubles and command the attention of the opposing defense? I just don't see the logic in saying that because several players might make incremental gains in their wp/48 that it can replace the intangibles produced by an offensive player that the defense actually has to scheme for and adjust to.

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                      • #12
                        Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                        I think you could just as easily make the opposite argument, that distributing Bosh's touches among lesser skilled offensive players will result in a lower offensive output. I mean he had the ball in his hands most for a good reason, it created high percentage chances for himself and for his team on kickouts and rotation. Where do those similar easy looks come from now in the half court set? What player is going to shift defenses, attract doubles and command the attention of the opposing defense? I just don't see the logic in saying that because several players might make incremental gains in their wp/48 that it can replace the intangibles produced by an offensive player that the defense actually has to scheme for and adjust to.
                        THats very true, the reason this stat dosnt work is because it could be one or the other. It dosnt really say anything that is a sure thing.

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                        • #13
                          alli know is get a center or a point guard in next years draft especially in the lottery i'm leaning more towards a center but that could change quick.
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                          • #14
                            If we get a legit center via trade my max goes to 45 and my min is 27. But I always feel too optimistic during offseasons lol. Im more excited about seeing development of DD/Amir/Sonny/Bargs/Davis so im not really too concerened about the win column this year.

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                            • #15
                              Priest wrote: View Post
                              If we get a legit center via trade my max goes to 45 and my min is 27. But I always feel too optimistic during offseasons lol. Im more excited about seeing development of DD/Amir/Sonny/Bargs/Davis so im not really too concerened about the win column this year.
                              that is what this year should be about...whats the point if we win 40 or 45 games? I dont care how many we win, aslong as you can see some magic with the team. If we win 36 or 37, but it was not an exciting season, and no one really made strides, it wasnt a successful season, even if that is higher then expected.

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