Everything Dwane Casey

[DanH]

With less minutes. His offensive rebounding increases might be enough to account for the usage.

Yeah, he should play more. Seems like a different discussion though.

Meanwhile, no, his offensive rebounding improvements do not explain his increased usage (about half of it this past season, none of the season before, and about half of the season before that).

[Axel]

Yeah, he should play more. Seems like a different discussion though.

Meanwhile, no, his offensive rebounding improvements do not explain his increased usage (about half of it this past season, none of the season before, and about half of the season before that).

So the increase FGA is not accounted for by the increased number of offensive putbacks? Do you have the numbers for that? I'm on my phone so the stats are harder to pull.

[DanH]

So the increase FGA is not accounted for by the increased number of offensive putbacks? Do you have the numbers for that? I'm on my phone so the stats are harder to pull.

Yeah.

Season | USG increase | ORB/100 increase
2015-16 | 1.8 | 0.8
2014-15 | 0.6 | 0.1
2013-14 | 1.6 | 0.9

[Axel]

Yeah.

Season | USG increase | ORB/100 increase
2015-16 | 1.8 | 0.8
2014-15 | 0.6 | 0.1
2013-14 | 1.6 | 0.9

So we can safely say that any usage increase has been incredibly marginal at best?

[Deino]

The bold is the key, and what concerns me. We can all argue around in circles as to whether it's Casey's fault, DeRozan's fault, Lowry's fault, MU's fault, the fault of the rest of the roster, etc... but the bottom line is that a guard-centric, ISO-heavy offensive strategy will prevent the Raptors from ever being legit title contenders.

Something with the Casey/DeRozan/Lowry core needs to give. A complete overhaul of the offensive game-plan could be the simple solution. However, through word and deed over the past several years, there's been no indication that this is a likely outcome, hence the arguing in circles.

A switch to an inside-out offensive system, or at least an offensive game-plan that is more balanced between the current strategy and an inside-out attack, could be the fix that cures all our ills related to usage (both over and under, depending on the player) and efficiency. Of course, the million dollar question is how effective would Lowry (not a traditional pass-first PG) and/or DeRozan (poor outside shooter and not a great off-the-ball player) continue to be in a system that isn't tailored to maximize their personal strengths?

I have opinions, as we all do, but none of us really have the answer. Has the coach coached the way he has because of the players? Have the players played the way they have because of the system? Can everybody adapt to a new system? Tough to say, but with 2/3 of the core back (3/4 if you include JV as the emerging inside player forcing a change to the offensive system) next season already, it looks like we're all about to find out.

First of all,did Casey acknowledge there is a problem with the current "system" on offence ( I clearly remember Casey being asked early in the season about the offensive struggles he simply said :that-offence- will come as we go),but we didn't see an efficient system emerge throughout the season(except ISO plays),the same system they said it needs to change from previous year(they cut ties with Lou Williams and Vasquez).
The thing is too much emphasis was given to defense this year,that saw the team(coaching staff first) overlook the importance of efficient versatile well balanced offensive system.

[DanH]

So we can safely say that any usage increase has been incredibly marginal at best?

We can say it was marginal. We can also say it existed, and has been consistent.

Hopefully he gets a larger jump this year and it would have been better if he had larger jumps before. But let's not pretend they didn't increase his usage - they did, by 0.5 point or more each year.

And keep in mind, that analysis assumes every single offensive rebound is another used possession, but that's not true. This season, for example, JV had 144 putbacks and 184 offensive boards - so a fifth of those offensive boards aren't actually increasing his usage.

[Axel]

We can say it was marginal. We can also say it existed, and has been consistent.

Hopefully he gets a larger jump this year and it would have been better if he had larger jumps before. But let's not pretend they didn't increase his usage - they did, by 0.5 point or more each year.

And keep in mind, that analysis assumes every single offensive rebound is another used possession, but that's not true. This season, for example, JV had 144 putbacks and 184 offensive boards - so a fifth of those offensive boards aren't actually increasing his usage.

JV was 3rd on the team in Usage for rotation players but drops down to 5th and 4th in FGA per 100 and per game.

I'm less concerned with the usage number as much as the FGA. He's too efficient of a scorer to rank with Ross in FGA per game or behind Scola in per 100.

[DanH]

JV was 3rd on the team in Usage for rotation players but drops down to 5th and 4th in FGA per 100 and per game.

I'm less concerned with the usage number as much as the FGA. He's too efficient of a scorer to rank with Ross in FGA per game or behind Scola in per 100.

Wait, why do you care more about FGA numbers than usage?

[Gambino]

Wait, why do you care more about FGA numbers than usage?

Presumably for him to be getting more shots up so he can score more.

[KeonClark]

With all due respect to Dan, who seems like a smart guy, this is fucking ridiculous.

I guess it's hard to see my tongue planted firmly in my cheek over the interwebs

[Axel]

Everything Dwane Casey

Wait, why do you care more about FGA numbers than usage?

Because he is our most efficient scorer and should be getting more shot attempts than Ross (per game) or Scola (per 100). He is already higher than them in usage but not in FGA so something isn't right.

[DanH]

Presumably for him to be getting more shots up so he can score more.

Uh, sure, but him getting a post up and drawing a foul should count too, yeah? And him getting the ball on the roll and screwing up and traveling should count too yeah? Those are opportunities to score that end in ways other than a FGA. And usage captures those opportunities.

[Quirk]

Really? This season, where our starting SF missed most of the season and was playing hurt for the playoffs, and our young, promising starting C missed chunks of the season and playoffs, and we were starting Luis freaking Scola at PF, is the ceiling?

Yup, none of that will make as big of a bottom line impact as DeRozan's usage rate and inefficiency. To take a stop forward we need to either get DeMar out of the lineup, or get a coach that will take the ball out of his hands.

Otherwise, it doesn't matter who else is on the court watching DeRozan miss shots, they're still missed shots.

Maybe the season win total can climb slightly higher, but no way is any team with DeMar DeRozan as its usage leader making the finals. Ever.

It's possible DeMar improves and/or changes his game, but the odds are against it, by a wide margin.

[DanH]

Because he is our most efficient scorer and should be getting more shot attempts than Ross (per game) or Scola (per 100). He is already higher than them in usage but not in FGA so something isn't right.

Ross and Scola get to the line less and turn it over less.

[Barolt]

Uh, sure, but him getting a post up and drawing a foul should count too, yeah? And him getting the ball on the roll and screwing up and traveling should count too yeah? Those are opportunities to score that end in ways other than a FGA. And usage captures those opportunities.

His turnover rate on the PNR was actually the lowest of all our big men. Also, we went to Scola as the roll man more often than JV, which is just insane. Scola was in the 16th percentile, JV in the 90th.