Everything VanVleet

[Rudy Bargnani]

Fred’s offensive production is fine. Above average ORTG (117 vs 114.8) at above average USG (23.3 vs 20

Guys I think someone hacked Golden’s account.

[golden]

seems similar its odd

"You miss 100% of the shots you take" lmao. (1:04)

[The Claw Reborn]

seems similar its odd

lol….like a fucking rerun of the past

Past and Present

[The Claw Reborn]

God I hate when you try to be glib and put words into other's mouths.

What I was OK with was more of a rebuild than we're doing, a step back to get better if necessary, not treadmilling through a few years of 4-6 place finishes in the East and out in the first or 2nd round as an absolute high water mark. Not running it back for another year perhaps slightly better than this mess thanks to Jak and Otto.

I'd hoped the route to better was to trade Fred for a first and young players or picks and hand the short term keys to Scottie. He was supposed to be the most likely to return high value, we were told they were lining up and the phone was ringing off the hook. But evidently, no other GM agrees with the value floated around here.

I'd sooner step back with a brighter future than a better but meh team. I embrace "play-in for what?" as more than a marketing slogan.

Been there so many times lol

[DanH]

Stats don't lie...
FV Fg shooting percentage is 39 percent this year..3pt shooting percentage is 34 percent, horrible.
This guy takes so many bad shots..our coach is total moron, his on FV D&%% and can't get off..
Imagine if the roles were reverse..
OG was getting 17 shots and FV 13 shots..
Maybe ppl should Check OG Numbers..
48 percent field goal percentage and 40 percent from 3....there is a reason why OG wants 2 leave, he can't stand playing with Fv....Do u guys watch the game???
Ask anyone in the league.
who is the most important Raptors..easy..OG..right behind Barnes, just bc the size, talent, young upcoming.
Anyway..
The day OG leaves and keep overhyped, overrated, selfish FV..u all gonna say, damn..we kept that and let OG go...

I don't think you'll find any evidence of me suggesting we move on from OG. We should absolutely be keeping him regardless of what we do with Fred.

I also think you have no evidence that OG hates playing with Fred. Seems like yet another fiction those who don't like Fred will happily buy into to support their narrative.

Also, if OG was getting the shots Fred was getting... well, we've seen what happens when you upscale OG's usage, his efficiency drops off dramatically.

[golden]

Guys I think someone hacked Golden’s account.

lol. See? This just proves I'm fair-minded, not a hater, and never have been.

My issue with Fred has always been price and that Fred doesn't elevate lesser players as much as he is elevated by them.

We just saw Tyus Jones put up Fred like numbers as a starter, when Ja Morant was out. Tyus is making $14M/yr next year. We saw Jalen Brunson do that last year, when Luka was injured and now he's broken out as a full-time starting PG with the Knicks. He'll be making $25M/yr for the next 2 years. PG role can be inflated, because the system has to bend to suit their strengths and weaknesses... that's one reason why primary ball-handlers advanced stats always look better than the rest of their teammates.

Ideally, we should be finding the next Tyus Jones or Jalen Brunson. We just saw what Fred's trade value was around the league, and it wasn't pretty (and it wasn't just because he was expiring). I like Koloko, but we really messed up not drafting Andrew Nembhard. That was the low-cost Fred replacement right there. Probably could've traded down pick #20 for 2 first rounders and nabbed both Koloko and Nembhard. Thanks, Thad.

[DanH]

God I hate when you try to be glib and put words into other's mouths.

What I was OK with was more of a rebuild than we're doing, a step back to get better if necessary, not treadmilling through a few years of 4-6 place finishes in the East and out in the first or 2nd round as an absolute high water mark. Not running it back for another year perhaps slightly better than this mess thanks to Jak and Otto.

I'd hoped the route to better was to trade Fred for a first and young players or picks and hand the short term keys to Scottie. He was supposed to be the most likely to return high value, we were told they were lining up and the phone was ringing off the hook. But evidently, no other GM agrees with the value floated around here.

I'd sooner step back with a brighter future than a better but meh team. I embrace "play-in for what?" as more than a marketing slogan.

Right! So what I'm looking for is the logic in: Fred being gone = brighter future. I don't see how that is the case. Doesn't free up cap space if he walks. By all accounts, wouldn't have gotten us any real value in a trade at the deadline. Team was never going to bottom out, so we're talking a few spots in the draft this year if we dumped him for scraps at the deadline.

[DanH]

What kind of shooting does have correlation with strength of opposition?

I assumed all but would like to hear this take.

Well, good defences can definitely impact shooting at the rim and in the paint - both in terms of efficiency and volume. Really great defences can impact volume of three point shooting and midrange shooting (more of the latter, less of the former). But shooting percentages on jump shots are way more noise than signal for a defence. This has been shown again and again.

[iblastoff]

lol. See? This just proves I'm fair-minded, not a hater, and never have been.

My issue with Fred has always been price and that Fred doesn't elevate lesser players as much as he is elevated by them.

We just saw Tyus Jones put up Fred like numbers as a starter, when Ja Morant was out. Tyus is making $14M/yr next year. We saw Jalen Brunson do that last year, when Luka was injured and now he's broken out as a full-time starting PG with the Knicks. He'll be making $25M/yr for the next 2 years. PG role can be inflated, because the system has to bend to suit their strengths and weaknesses... that's one reason why primary ball-handlers advanced stats always look better than the rest of their teammates.

Ideally, we should be finding the next Tyus Jones or Jalen Brunson. We just saw what Fred's trade value was around the league, and it wasn't pretty (and it wasn't just because he was expiring). I like Koloko, but we really messed up not drafting Andrew Nembhard. That was the low-cost Fred replacement right there. Probably could've traded down pick #20 for 2 first rounders and nabbed both Koloko and Nembhard. Thanks, Thad.

lol why do people make posts like this??

tyus jones? dude averages 7 POINTS A GAME in his entire career and plays less than 20 minutes a game. he is obviously not gonna be making fred level money.

sometimes, players will have stretches of greatness, and if that stretch goes long enough, they will get paid for it, just like fred did. until tyus jones strings together multiple successful seasons (or even just ONE), who gives a fuck.

and jalen brunson make MORE than fred does lol.

obviously EVERY TEAM wants to have really good players being paid much less than they're worth lol. but when they get good, you have to pay them which is literally what happened to the entire raptors bench (fred/siakam/og). you're not gonna find some magical fucking formula of NOT paying multiple good players forever.

[Primer]

Well, good defences can definitely impact shooting at the rim and in the paint - both in terms of efficiency and volume. Really great defences can impact volume of three point shooting and midrange shooting (more of the latter, less of the former). But shooting percentages on jump shots are way more noise than signal for a defence. This has been shown again and again.

Three point shooting and midrange are quite often jump shots. You can even take a jump shot in the paint.

A jump shot is just when you shoot the ball while jumping in the air.

Have you ever played basketball? If the guy you're defending jumps you're just like, shit, that's undefendable, it's a jump shot.

Ive blocked the hell out of so many jump shots in my life that I can tell you 100% a defense can effect jump shots.

This is just a beyond bizarre take.

[Primer]

I have to give props to Fred, he finally had a great shooting game.

44.4% FG, 60% 3PT, and only 9 FGA

More of that please.

[DanH]

Three point shooting and midrange are quite often jump shots. You can even take a jump shot in the paint.

A jump shot is just when you shoot the ball while jumping in the air.

Have you ever played basketball? If the guy you're defending jumps you're just like, shit, that's undefendable, it's a jump shot.

Ive blocked the hell out of so many jump shots in my life that I can tell you 100% a defense can effect jump shots.

This is just a beyond bizarre take.

Of course defence can affect individual jump shots.

But over a large sample, in the NBA, it doesn't. Not consistently enough to make a real difference statistically. The far bigger contributor is the noise. Guys miss wide open shots enough that the effect of the defence is lost in the noise. On jumpers in particular. Closer to the rim you get, the more consistently an unguarded shot will go in, and the more you can actually see the defence's impact on the statistical success rate of those shots.

[Primer]

Of course defence can affect individual jump shots.

But over a large sample, in the NBA, it doesn't. Not consistently enough to make a real difference statistically. The far bigger contributor is the noise. Guys miss wide open shots enough that the effect of the defence is lost in the noise. On jumpers in particular. Closer to the rim you get, the more consistently an unguarded shot will go in, and the more you can actually see the defence's impact on the statistical success rate of those shots.

Defense being less impactful the further away the shot is from the basket effects every shot, not just jump shots.

Guys are less likely to make an open shot the further it is away from the basket. Doesn't matter if they're jumping or not.

Defense still impacts jump shots. It's harder to make a jump shot with a defender on you with a hand in your face.

Can't believe we're even arguing this.

This is a case where over reliance on data is making you talk like a crazy person.

[DanH]

Defense being less impactful the further away the shot is from the basket effects every shot, not just jump shots.

Guys are less likely to make an open shot the further it is away from the basket. Doesn't matter if they're jumping or not.

Defense still impacts jump shots. It's harder to make a jump shot with a defender on you with a hand in your face.

Can't believe we're even arguing this.

This is a case where over reliance on data is making you talk like a crazy person.

Uh, what? How many non-jump shots are you seeing guys take outside the paint? Jump shots is just easy short hand for "midrange and out." Man alive.

Actually, league wide the trend in jump shot success on open looks is that long midrange is not actually much easier to hit than threes, which is why we had the recent revolution to eliminate those shots and have them move a few steps back - you gain an extra point but lose almost nothing in accuracy. The big drop off in success rate is when you move from layup/floater range out to having to take a jumper. Even the short mid-range to long mid-range success rate is not a huge jump.

I am not arguing that a hand in the face does not affect a jump shot. I am arguing that a team or player's success rate defending jump shots will not show up in the stats over a sample as small as, say, an NBA regular season. There is too much noise from shooting luck, so a team with a low opponent 3PT% for example might be really good at getting a hand up - or they might be lucky. Statistical analysis of such scenarios suggests that it's far more likely the latter for any given team. This is compounded hugely for individual player defence stats, as the samples are that much smaller.

But even at the team level, you just don't see it show up in the numbers because the effect of a good defence on a jump shot is less significant than the random variance inherent in throwing a ball into a hoop from a significant distance. Absolutely playing good defence will give you the best chance to win. Because that is something you can control, and the variance is not. But by no means will it guarantee you see your opponent's success rate drop. Sometimes the tough shots just go in.

[golden]

lol why do people make posts like this??

tyus jones? dude averages 7 POINTS A GAME in his entire career and plays less than 20 minutes a game. he is obviously not gonna be making fred level money.

sometimes, players will have stretches of greatness, and if that stretch goes long enough, they will get paid for it, just like fred did. until tyus jones strings together multiple successful seasons (or even just ONE), who gives a fuck.

and jalen brunson make MORE than fred does lol.

obviously EVERY TEAM wants to have really good players being paid much less than they're worth lol. but when they get good, you have to pay them which is literally what happened to the entire raptors bench (fred/siakam/og). you're not gonna find some magical fucking formula of NOT paying multiple good players forever.

Ainge used that magical formula for years to build the Celtics. He made a few mistakes, like Hayward and Kyrie, but he’s the main reason why they have the current team today. He wasn’t sentimental, not re-signing his own guys, like Rozier & IT and even letting Kyrie & Horford walk. It gives you flexibility to add players and build out depth. He’s doing the same thing with Utah.