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Mess wrote: View Post"Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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Joey wrote: View PostLaws of Diminishing returns*. There's just no way you take some of those players you listed, and slot them into Demars usage rate, and they produce the same WS48. Even if you just increase their minutes to Demars level, let alone Usage, they don't maintain that same WS48.
Vice versa - decrease Demar's usage, put him in a system where he has a defined role, is not the main target on D, is not forced into ISO every single play, has reliable teammates etc. and watch happens to his WS48.
There will be a bias to players on good teams with WS though. Ilyasova had a higher WS48 than Demarcus Cousins and Nik Vucevik. Second to that, theres generally a negative bias against high usage players (Kobe, Iverson types) as well. I say generally, because somehow Harden and Westbrook were both way up there in WS. I attritube that to their relatively high Ast%. But Demar certainly isn't Harden or Westbrook.
WS48 is good and all, but Austin Rivers had a higher WS48 than Andrew Wiggins (Wiggins was nearly last in the league out of Qualified players), and yet I think we all can agree Austin Rivers didn't do more to contribute to wins, or to contribute to his team.
Greivis Vasquez had a higher WS48 than Monta Ellis. I'm not a huge Ellis fan, but I'm sure he had a better season than GV did. Heck, Brandon Wright had a higher WS48 than Lebron James.
The players situation counts for nearly everything when it comes to WS and WS48.
*First paragraph from that Article I linked above:
Its actually a really interesting read.
I find it funny that you comment about Ersan and the impact of a good team on WS48. Ersan was on Milwaukee last year right? The Milwaukee Bucks? Lol
WS48 isn't perfect as sample size (mpg) and team success both have impacts (although shouldn't they? And isn't DD on a 49 win team?). I did filter out players in small roles (less than 15 mpg) to at least try and balance it as much as possible but at 49 wins its not like Demar is really at a disadvantage and getting short changed.
The diminishing scoring article basically sounds like one of the biggest beefs people have had with Demar. Forcing the offence through him was never a good idea. If a player isn't that good, creating a well balanced offence will serve you better than trying to force the issue.
At first, this was 100% a coaching issue. But lately, you wonder if this shoot first, shoot second mentality has become part of DD's game and it's completely fair to wonder if he can shake that. We always talk about bringing in Option 1 or 2 talent above Demar (although the how is often left out), but if we do, can DD actually adjust his game to play off of someone? Lowry and DD never seem to peak at the same time, it's very much one or the other, and that further strengthens that concern. His game is very ball oriented (a lot like Melo) and the adjustment to #3 (if we can even get #1/2) would be a challenge. Certain players can't make that adjustment and I feel Demar is most likely one of them.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Chr1s1anL wrote: View PostHow about the ATL hawks?
But yeah, can't deny - that was a mighty beat down as well.
Not that this relates directly to the topic at hand, but way back in February (I think), I wrote a post saying how the Hawks weren't built for the playoffs, given their lack of star power, inexperience as a group, and reliance on the 3. I got flamed for it. Looks like I wasn't so far off..."Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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JimiCliff wrote: View PostWell, Lebron was involved...
But yeah, can't deny - that was a mighty beat down as well.
Not that this relates directly to the topic at hand, but way back in February (I think), I wrote a post saying how the Hawks weren't built for the playoffs, given their lack of star power, inexperience as a group, and reliance on the 3. I got flamed for it. Looks like I wasn't so far off...@Chr1st1anL
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Axel wrote: View PostFirst, no one should have Demar's UsageRate except for a very few elite players. So I was never intending to simply plug any player in. That's like taking Ross and giving him DD's minutes and having him run DD's plays. Only a moron would do that ~ oh wait. Crap
I find it funny that you comment about Ersan and the impact of a good team on WS48. Ersan was on Milwaukee last year right? The Milwaukee Bucks? Lol
WS48 isn't perfect as sample size (mpg) and team success both have impacts (although shouldn't they? And isn't DD on a 49 win team?). I did filter out players in small roles (less than 15 mpg) to at least try and balance it as much as possible but at 49 wins its not like Demar is really at a disadvantage and getting short changed.
The diminishing scoring article basically sounds like one of the biggest beefs people have had with Demar. Forcing the offence through him was never a good idea. If a player isn't that good, creating a well balanced offence will serve you better than trying to force the issue.
At first, this was 100% a coaching issue. But lately, you wonder if this shoot first, shoot second mentality has become part of DD's game and it's completely fair to wonder if he can shake that. We always talk about bringing in Option 1 or 2 talent above Demar (although the how is often left out), but if we do, can DD actually adjust his game to play off of someone? Lowry and DD never seem to peak at the same time, it's very much one or the other, and that further strengthens that concern. His game is very ball oriented (a lot like Melo) and the adjustment to #3 (if we can even get #1/2) would be a challenge. Certain players can't make that adjustment and I feel Demar is most likely one of them.
I highlighted the bold because you acknowledge it yet you ignore it when comparing DeRozan's advanced statistics to players in smaller or more suitable roles for their skillsets. You acknowledge that DeRozan shouldn't be getting top option usage, yet have you ever considered that this ridiculously high usage combined with his role as the #1 scoring option on the team actually has a negative effect on his advanced statistics across the board? Pretty much only superstars/perennial all-stars are able to maintain any kind of efficient production at those usage levels. I think anyone who isn't DeLusional (haha) wouldn't hold DeMar to those standards.
A lot of people say DeRozan isn't good enough to be a 1st option on a successful... well that's obvious. The role I'd like to see DeRozan in is as sort of a periphery or secondary scorer, which would also allow him to focus more on the other aspects of the game, improving his contributions in those areas as well. I think he could be both an efficient and highly productive player.
It might even be as simple of an adjustment as making Val the primary offensive focus and having DeRozan play off of him. But methinks we're gonna need some talent upgrades for that to work, because Lowry is crap as a #1 option as well, his advanced shooting percentages were pretty much in typical DeRozan range this season.
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JimiCliff wrote: View PostWell, Lebron was involved...
But yeah, can't deny - that was a mighty beat down as well.
Not that this relates directly to the topic at hand, but way back in February (I think), I wrote a post saying how the Hawks weren't built for the playoffs, given their lack of star power, inexperience as a group, and reliance on the 3. I got flamed for it. Looks like I wasn't so far off...
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Chr1s1anL wrote: View PostWere we not a lottery team when we draft DD? Now were a legit playoffs team. Have broken pretty much every raptor team record that stood. Doesn't look like a dumpster fire to me.
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Primer wrote: View PostThe Hawks did have playoff success though, making the first ECF in team history, and beating two pretty good teams along the way. Wall played the last two games of the series and Washington lost both, so I don't buy the Wall excuse. The Hawks also had a key injury before the playoffs to their best defender in Sefalosha, the guy who could have shut Pierce the fuck down and made it a much shorter series. Sefalosha also would have helped a ton against Lebron, as he did in the regular season. So the Hawks were hit pretty damn hard by injuries too. Lastly, it's freaking Lebron, he has dominated the Playoffs his entire career and Cleveland was the big time favorite before the series even started solely due to Lebron. It's why I'm also not super down on Houston for losing to arguably one of the best teams of all time in the Warriors, sometime the other team is just so much more talented there is nothing you can do."Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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DeRozan over his career has shown zero correlation between his usage and his efficiency. There is zero evidence to suggest he would have a better efficiency with a lesser role - and if he's not contributing in a major way offensively, what's the point of a) paying him like he'll want to be paid and b) trotting out his mediocre-at-best defence for long stretches?
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Primer wrote: View PostDemar didn't get us to the playoffs, Kyle Lowry did. Demar played with a perfectly capable PG before Lowry in Calderon and we freaking sucked. Demar doesn't deserve the credit for turning around the Raptors, Lowry does.@Chr1st1anL
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DanH wrote: View PostDeRozan over his career has shown zero correlation between his usage and his efficiency. There is zero evidence to suggest he would have a better efficiency with a lesser role - and if he's not contributing in a major way offensively, what's the point of a) paying him like he'll want to be paid and b) trotting out his mediocre-at-best defence for long stretches?
And I think it's about more than just usage. It's also about what role the player is playing within that usage. For example, Klay Thompson's usage at 24.6% isn't that much lower than DeRozan's. But because of the Warriors excellent ball movement and the presence of a legitimate superstar offensive talent in Steph Curry, the role Klay plays within that usage is very different from DeRozan's.
I'm of the belief that if you swapped Klay for DeRozan and asked Thompson to do this iso-ball nonsense that we've been running since Triano was fired (not trying to praise Triano or anything btw), his efficiency would greatly suffer.
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JWash wrote: View PostHis usage has been within a range of about 5% (23-28%) for all of his seasons except his rookie year. Kind of hard to determine any correlation between usage and efficiency when his usage has been relatively stable (moderate upward trend).
And I think it's about more than just usage. It's also about what role the player is playing within that usage. For example, Klay Thompson's usage at 24.6% isn't that much lower than DeRozan's. But because of the Warriors excellent ball movement and the presence of a legitimate superstar offensive talent in Steph Curry, the role Klay plays within that usage is very different from DeRozan's.
I'm of the belief that if you swapped Klay for DeRozan and asked Thompson to do this iso-ball nonsense that we've been running since Triano was fired (not trying to praise Triano or anything btw), his efficiency would greatly suffer.
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DanH wrote: View PostI agree that Thompson would suffer in this ISO-ball offence. I disagree with the implied statement that DeRozan would see his efficiency skyrocket on the Warriors.@Chr1st1anL
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