Everything Derozan

[Axel]

I'm not trying to shift the topic.

From what you're writing it appears you're trying to suggest that DD driving more results in losses or increases our chances of losing, which I don't think is the correct assessment to make (especially when you consider he's more efficient overall in wins). The problem isn't that he drives too much in losses, the problem is that he simply just takes way too many shots in losses. In losses he takes almost 20 shots per game and shoots them at a pretty bad efficiency of 51 TS%. In wins he takes 5 shots less per game but shoots more efficiently (55 TS%).

And while he technically does have more drives in losses. It's not because he's driving more frequently, it's just because he's shooting more. The percentage of his shots that are coming off drives is still roughly the same at ~35%.

I never said there is a cause/result correlation. I merely linked the topic you said "DD is driving more, Yay" then pointed out that there is a "strange correlation" between DD and Wins, especially with regards to driving; where his 61.9% is Top 3 of all player W/L splits.

Big positive for DeMar in 2015-16, he's driving way more this year... like WAY more.

There is also the strange correlation of DD and Wins.

Further to the wins point, DD actually drives less when we win.

[JWash]

Well, again, we were talking about drives, but you seem to keep moving on from that, so let's expand further:

In Wins
Drive FG% - 52.3%
Catch and Shoot FG% - 30%
Pull Up FG% - 35.1%
eFG% - 44.9%

In Losses
Drive FG% - 61.9%
Catch and Shoot FG% - 25%
Pull Up FG% - 35.8%
eFG% - 43.8%


In Wins
Drives 10.6
Catch and Shoot 2.9
Pull Up - 5.5 FGA

In Losses
Drives 14.7
Catch and Shoot 2.7
Pull Up - 7.4 FGA


So all things are generally, equal except that when we lose, DD drives significantly more and shoots at an elite %. He also shoots more pull up jumpers, although not as drastic. So by his best, I mean, his most involved. So the more DD is involved in the offence, the more the team appears to lose, based on the numbers.

So you're going to legitimately try to argue now that DD is at his "best" when he's scoring at 51 TS% and not at his "best" when he's scoring at 55 TS%?

I only looked at drives initially to point out a positive that he is driving more than he has in previous seasons. It now seems like you're trying to flip this and make out his drives to be a negative. The driving in losses isn't the problem, the problem is that in losses he simply just shoots the ball way too fucking much (almost 20 shots per game and 31 USG%) especially when you compare it to wins (<15 shots per game and 27 USG%) and as a result plays less efficiently (i.e. worse) in losses.

[Barolt]

So you're going to legitimately try to argue now that DD is at his "best" when he's scoring at 51 TS% and not at his "best" when he's scoring at 55 TS%?

I only looked at drives initially to point out a positive that he is driving more than he has in previous seasons. It now seems like you're trying to flip this and make out his drives to be a negative. The driving in losses isn't the problem, the problem is that in losses he simply just shoots the ball way too fucking much (almost 20 shots per game and 31 USG%) especially when you compare it to wins (<15 shots per game and 27 USG%) and as a result plays less efficiently (i.e. worse) in losses.

Doesn't that lead to the same conclusion JWash? If DeMar shoots more, we're less likely to win.

[Axel]

So you're going to legitimately try to argue now that DD is at his "best" when he's scoring at 51 TS% and not at his "best" when he's scoring at 55 TS%?

If you read what I wrote, which you even quoted, you would see what I'm talking about.

So all things are generally, equal except that when we lose, DD drives significantly more and shoots at an elite %. He also shoots more pull up jumpers, although not as drastic. So by his best, I mean, his most involved. So the more DD is involved in the offence, the more the team appears to lose, based on the numbers.

I only looked at drives initially to point out a positive that he is driving more than he has in previous seasons. It now seems like you're trying to flip this and make out his drives to be a negative. The driving in losses isn't the problem, the problem is that in losses he simply just shoots the ball way too fucking much (almost 20 shots per game and 31 USG%) especially when you compare it to wins (<15 shots per game and 27 USG%) and as a result plays less efficiently (i.e. worse) in losses.

I'm just pointing out stats man. They are there for all to see. People can make of them what they will, but there is no denying that more DD = more losses.

Almost 20 shots per game in losses (19 to be more exact), of which 14 are drives, which he shoot an elite FG% of 62%. Do you not find it odd?

[Chr1s1anL]

Yes I remember, I also remember after the first 5 games when DD played great and all the "told ya so" posts from DD supporters until his game started to revert form for another stretch. DD has put good stretches together many times, but has equal number of bad stretches.

Until DD maintains the improvements, hard to say he has changed when there is years of evidence to the contrary.

There is also the strange correlation of DD and Wins. When DD is at his 'best', the team hasn't been winning much. Recent games are an example, when Lowry went into God mode, we almost beat GSW. When DD did, we lost to Denver.

Further to the wins point, DD actually drives less when we win.

In wins, DD drives 10.6 times per game. In losses, 14.7. Now I'm sure many will think "well obviously if he isn't hitting his shots then we will lose" but DD shoots significantly better in losses than wins. 52.3% in wins and 61.9% in losses.

I don't think it's surprising to see that Demar shoots 19 FGA in our losses and just 14 FGA in our wins. So there is still that too.

Same thing could be said about Cojo. Plays better when we lose

[JWash]

Doesn't that lead to the same conclusion JWash? If DeMar shoots more, we're less likely to win.

From what Axel wrote he appeared to be suggesting that DD driving more leads to us losing. However the problem is not that he drives more (btw he doesn't actually even drive more frequently in losses, he has ~0.7 drives/FGA in both wins AND losses) it's that he is simply shooting too much. DeRozan should not be taking 20 shots per game and that's how many he takes in losses. He's better off in the mid-teens, which is where he's at in wins (~15). And that's reflected further by the 4% dropoff in TS% from wins to losses.

[Wild-ling#1]

DD is a month older, so not sure if one can really argue potential between the two.

Elite defence vs debatably average defence - is just "persuasive"? Man. What would be "more than persuasive" evidence?

I've acknowledged the consensus and respect it. And persuasive is persuasive. But I can't independently confirm it. I'm just pleading ignorance, really. It's the opposite of "know-it-all" behaviour. But I'm learning...

And DeMar's on his own learning curve. So we'll see. But I get that neither is so old they can't improve and that the consensus is DeMar has ground to make up. I'm ok with that, so far as it goes.

[Barolt]

From what Axel wrote he appeared to be suggesting that DD driving more leads to us losing. However the problem is not that he drives more (btw he doesn't actually even drive more frequently in losses, he has ~0.7 drives/FGA in both wins AND losses) it's that he is simply shooting too much. DeRozan should not be taking 20 shots per game and that's how many he takes in losses. He's better off in the mid-teens, which is where he's at in wins (~15). And that's reflected further by the 4% dropoff in TS% from wins to losses.

Which is what both me and Axel just said, when DeMar shoots more we're more likely to lose. Which is troubling in a player who's strength is supposed to be as a high usage scorer.

[JWash]

Which is what both me and Axel just said, when DeMar shoots more we're more likely to lose. Which is troubling in a player who's strength is supposed to be as a high usage scorer.

Ok we don't appear to be agreeing on what you/Axel were suggesting previously, because I disagree with your first clause there. So I'm just going to step out of this argument at this point.

[JWash]

I've acknowledged the consensus and respect it. And persuasive is persuasive. But I can't independently confirm it. I'm just pleading ignorance, really. It's the opposite of "know-it-all" behaviour. But I'm learning...

And DeMar's on his own learning curve. So we'll see. But I get that neither is so old they can't improve and that the consensus is DeMar has ground to make up. I'm ok with that, so far s it goes.

You can't plead "ignorance" here dude, Jimmy Butler is a better player than DeRozan period end of story, not really up for debate at all. There's literally no stat or even "eye-test" that would indicate otherwise, unless you think DD's slightly better passing is enough to overwhelm lockdown D and a significant gap in efficiency.

[Axel]

From what Axel wrote he appeared to be suggesting that DD driving more leads to us losing. However the problem is not that he drives more (btw he doesn't actually even drive more frequently in losses, he has ~0.7 drives/FGA in both wins AND losses) it's that he is simply shooting too much. DeRozan should not be taking 20 shots per game and that's how many he takes in losses. He's better off in the mid-teens, which is where he's at in wins (~15). And that's reflected further by the 4% dropoff in TS% from wins to losses.

Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true.

[Axel]

Ok we don't appear to be agreeing on what you/Axel were suggesting previously, because I disagree with your first clause there. So I'm just going to step out of this argument at this point.

How can you disagree? It's pure stats. No one said it's his fault, just that there is a relation there.

[Chr1s1anL]

Dude, you need to really advance past raw stats at this stage, it's beginning to get annoying. Anyone doing any sort of respectable basketball analysis nowadays uses TS% not FG% to evaluate scoring efficiency. DeRozan is at 53% while Butler is at 58%. Which is a significant difference in efficiency.

You need to increase your understanding of these things or risk constantly sounding like a "fanboy" or like you don't know what you're talking about man. Just saying that for your sake.

Don't need to do anything. All advanced stats can be used to fit any narrative. Rather the eye test.

[Axel]

Don't need to do anything. All advanced stats can be used to fit any narrative. Rather the eye test.

Does your eye test say that Derozan is better than Butler?

[Axel]

DeRozan should not be taking 20 shots per game and that's how many he takes in losses.

One would think that shooting 62% on 14 drives (over 70% of his shots in losses), he should keep shooting because it should lead to a win. But it doesn't. I find that really weird. If DD shot 62% from anywhere, I'd say go at it all day long man.