Game #30 Raptors @ Timberwolves, Feb. 19, 9:00 PM ET

[Jclaw]

Game day! We once again stand on the precipice of a four game win streak. Each time before we have been dashed. A tall test (pun intended) lies ahead. Let’s get it.

[G__Deane]

Sixers are a bigger test than the Bucks right now.
Let's see if we get a fair whistle in this one

[golden]

Ok lets take a deeper look then. Beal does shoot an overall percentage higher, but is a worse 3pt shooter. Plus of course his defensive liabilities, which can't be ignored.

According to nba.com
Beal has 24.2 attempts per game for 32.9 points per game (1.359 points per shot taken)
Fred has 16.7 attempts per game for 20.0 points per game (1.197 points per shot taken)

I know it doesn't directly give you an exact amount of what fred would contribute if he took more shots, but it does still give you an idea. So he is scoring 1.197 points per shot taken. If he were to take an additional 7.5 shots per game, this would be an additional 8.98 points per game. This would put him at 29 points per game. You can say it would go down, but he does still have lowry and siakam and norm drawing a decent amount of attention. And maybe it would go down a bit, but even if it dropped to say, 1.10 points per shot taken, that's still almost 27 points a game.
The USG and efficiency argument doesn't really apply here in terms of using boucher as an example, he's not really been forced to play in the same kind of role as Fred.
As to not finding a role for the leading scorer in the NBA.....I can accept him if we don't give away the future to do so, and our entire defense in the process.

I have no issue with trading for Beal if he can somehow play defense and we don't lose vanvleet in the process, but I just don't see how it makes sense with vanvleet involved. Certainly some unknown prospect that might pan out in a 1st round pick 3 years from now isn't that enticing, and also at the expense of losing one of our best scoring threats this year in norm in the process would basically mean we are tanking this year on purpose. There is also a very decent chance that norm could resign with the raps, especially if we fail to attract any big name free agents, it's his home and he might get a good offer.

Lowry on the other hand, I see him walking, the reason being, is that he sees himself as a starter going forward, and I don't see the raps can give him the cash he might want to fulfill that role.
As a lower salary bench player? We would sign him in 1 second. As a result there is a good chance they will trade him.

Beal’s 36% USG @ 114 ORTG is insane. Fred’s efficiency will crater somewhere between 25 to 28% USG at which point he becomes de facto first scoring option. That’s how USG works for offensive players.... there’s a USG ceiling after which efficiency plummets.

Comparing Beal and FVV on offense is like comparing Lowry and Bismack. There is no comparison.

[Yuri Gagarin]

And lets not forget fred getting shut out for an entire series because of “length”. Its basketball - theres gonna be length. And more each year

[A.I]

Beal’s 36% USG @ 114 ORTG is insane. Fred’s efficiency will crater somewhere between 25 to 28% USG at which point he becomes de facto first scoring option. That’s how USG works for offensive players.... there’s a USG ceiling after which efficiency plummets.

Comparing Beal and FVV on offense is like comparing Lowry and Bismack. There is no comparison.

32 PPG at 114 ORTG, 48% FG, 36% USG, 59% TS. The amount of points and shots Beal puts up with his FG% and USG, very few players can do. Fred has a higher 3 point percentage, but he has the luxury of playing with Pascal who is the main focus of the team, so he gets more open looks. Beal is capable of shooting 38+% from 3, he has done it before playing with Wall. Throw Beal on a good team, his points and shots will go down, his efficiency likely goes up.

[Yuri Gagarin]

Oh I just looked. Interesting...

We spent 2 months analyzing 24,489 records of 4,379 NBA players during 69 NBA seasons in order to show how the game of basketball evolved through the evolution of players’ height.

Key findings:

• The average NBA player has never been shorter over the past 39 seasons.
• Point guards are the tallest they’ve ever been in league history. All other positions are the shortest since the 80s.
• Only 38% of NBA players today are considered overweight (BMI>25), lowest over the past 15 years.
• 72% of the league is under 6’9’’ tall (most over the past 40 seasons)
• 40% of the power forwards’ FG attempts are 3-pointers (first time in NBA history). Centers are getting close to 20% (19.5).
• While declining in number, NBA’s big-men are dominating in shooting efficiency and PER, breaking all-time NBA records.
• International big-men are one of the most valuable assets for NBA teams - 53% of the NBA’s 7-footers are international players, and 46% of NBA centers are from overseas.

[Dvdvideo]

Beal’s 36% USG @ 114 ORTG is insane. Fred’s efficiency will crater somewhere between 25 to 28% USG at which point he becomes de facto first scoring option. That’s how USG works for offensive players.... there’s a USG ceiling after which efficiency plummets.

Comparing Beal and FVV on offense is like comparing Lowry and Bismack. There is no comparison.

So beal's usage rate goes up each year along with his scoring, (very much like Fred's has) if you look at the history, but somehow you magically know that's not going to happen for Fred? Pure conjecture on your part.

[S.R.]

Oh I just looked. Interesting...

We spent 2 months analyzing 24,489 records of 4,379 NBA players during 69 NBA seasons in order to show how the game of basketball evolved through the evolution of players’ height.

Key findings:

• The average NBA player has never been shorter over the past 39 seasons.
• Point guards are the tallest they’ve ever been in league history. All other positions are the shortest since the 80s.
• Only 38% of NBA players today are considered overweight (BMI>25), lowest over the past 15 years.
• 72% of the league is under 6’9’’ tall (most over the past 40 seasons)
• 40% of the power forwards’ FG attempts are 3-pointers (first time in NBA history). Centers are getting close to 20% (19.5).
• While declining in number, NBA’s big-men are dominating in shooting efficiency and PER, breaking all-time NBA records.
• International big-men are one of the most valuable assets for NBA teams - 53% of the NBA’s 7-footers are international players, and 46% of NBA centers are from overseas.

All makes sense, you get minutes and contracts and role based on skill now instead of size. You used to literally pencil players into positions purely based on their size, 6'-6'2" PG, 6'3"-6'5" SG, 6'6"-6'7" SF, 6'8"-6'10" PF, 6'11"+ C. That was it for 95% of guys, just a couple exceptions here and there.

Point guards are bigger now because guys with length who have handles and can pass are actually allowed to play PG. Everyone else you have to have a range of skills and be able to switch screens and defend out to the perimeter. So all the old PF and C stiffs are gone, no more standing under the rim to throw elbows and grab rebounds only.

Sweet spot for athleticism and versatility is guys around OG's size, can defend 5 spots and have skills.

And yeah how often now do you turn on a game and it's 8-10 guys who all used to be classified as wing players, used to have only 2-4 of them in the floor at a time.

[A.I]

So beal's usage rate goes up each year along with his scoring, (very much like Fred's has) if you look at the history, but somehow you magically know that's not going to happen for Fred? Pure conjecture on your part.

Its a pretty good educated guess to say Fred, who is already has a below average FG%, wouldn't be able to handle a higher usage and shot increase well. His usage rate has increased as well as his scoring, but his FG% has gradually been dropping every season.

Again, with the amount of shots, points and usage rate Beal takes/has, its incredible he has been able maintain an above average FG%.

[The Claw Reborn]

Sweet spot for athleticism and versatility is guys around OG's size, can defend 5 spots and have skills.

.

OG is a physical specimen...

Measurables: 6’7.75", 232 lbs, 7’2.5” wingspan, 8’11.5” standing reach.

https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2017/...ile-og-anunoby

Nice read of OGs predraft scouting profile in 2017

[The Claw Reborn]

Beal’s 36% USG @ 114 ORTG is insane. Fred’s efficiency will crater somewhere between 25 to 28% USG at which point he becomes de facto first scoring option. That’s how USG works for offensive players.... there’s a USG ceiling after which efficiency plummets.

Comparing Beal and FVV on offense is like comparing Lowry and Bismack. There is no comparison.

[golden]

So beal's usage rate goes up each year along with his scoring, (very much like Fred's has) if you look at the history, but somehow you magically know that's not going to happen for Fred? Pure conjecture on your part.

It's not a guess. It is based on the extensive work of Dean Oliver - the pioneer of modern NBA analytics, who studied hundreds of NBA players and developed USG vs. Efficiency "skill curves". If Fred can hit 35% USG and maintain his 114 ORTG, he will be the needle in the haystack. Even moreso, because of his obvious physical limitations.

Basically, you are suggesting that Fred will become super-duper star on offense with more USG. Are you seriously expecting that to happen? And if that was going to happen, it would have happened vs. the Celtics in the playoffs last year when we needed it most. What actually did happen is that Fred cratered, as Oliver's work predicts.

Dean Oliver is the guy whose work got people to start looking beyond raw stats (e.g. PPG) and looking at "per 100 possession" efficiencies: TS%, eFG%, ORTG, DRTG, etc.... He has also held positions with NBA teams. He's no slouch when it comes to basketball analytics and his work has stood the test of time and became mainstream.

Check out his book, if you want to become better educated on the subject.

http://www.basketballonpaper.com/

[The Claw Reborn]

It's not a guess. It is based on the extensive work of Dean Oliver - the pioneer of modern NBA analytics, who studied hundreds of NBA players and developed USG vs. Efficiency "skill curves". If Fred can hit 35% USG and maintain his 114 ORTG, he will be the needle in the haystack. Even moreso, because of his obvious physical limitations.

Basically, you are suggesting that Fred will become super-duper star on offense with more USG. Are you seriously expecting that to happen? And if that was going to happen, it would have happened vs. the Celtics in the playoffs last year when we needed it most. What actually did happen is that Fred cratered, as Oliver's work predicts.

Dean Oliver is the guy whose work got people to start looking beyond raw stats (e.g. PPG) and looking at "per 100 possession" efficiencies: TS%, eFG%, ORTG, DRTG, etc.... He has also held positions with NBA teams. He's no slouch when it comes to basketball analytics and his work has stood the test of time and became mainstream.

Check out his book, if you want to become better educated on the subject.

http://www.basketballonpaper.com/

Booo this man, you are so technical....Get off your high horse golden

[DogeLover1234]

This is such a weird argument. Beal is a monster scorer but he didnt just wake up and decide to be a walking bucket. Spent years working on a complete offensive game with as deep a bag as nearly anyone and gaining experience reading a defense to respond to anything you throw at him. Fred probably will never get that good, but hes also at a much different spot in development.

Also ask Beal to play defense once in a while and see what happens to his efficiency

[Dvdvideo]

Booo this man, you are so technical....Get off your high horse golden

I can actually take what he says seriously since he isn't basically being, well how do I put this, a snide kind of rude person who thinks he's better/ smarter than everyone while doing it like you do.
He may even have the same point as you but at least he finds a constructive way to say it.