Game #37: Detroit Pistons 114 - Toronto Raptors 111

[Dwane Casey]

No one saying anything about Lowry if he makes that last floater. Which was actually a really good look. You guys are so quick to praise Lowry when his shots go in but when they don't his playing hero ball. I bet no players had a problem with Lowry taking that shot. Cause they understand.

Is a floater at full speed actually a really good look?

If so, why do we essentially never see this as a play-call at the end of games?

And did that shot not remind anyone else of Lowry's last shot against Brooklyn?

[Dwane Casey]

And when one of your supposed building blocks for the future has absolutely trashed his competition while going 14/15 from the field on the night: maybe throw him a freaking bone? Just, like, this one time?

[RandomGuy]

And when one of your supposed building blocks for the future has absolutely trashed his competition while going 14/15 from the field on the night: maybe throw him a freaking bone? Just, like, this one time?

You should change your nickname, you sound too rational...

[Chr1s1anL]

Is a floater at full speed actually a really good look?

If so, why do we essentially never see this as a play-call at the end of games?

And did that shot not remind anyone else of Lowry's last shot against Brooklyn?

Its a good look for Lowry. We've all seen him make it time and time before.

[Dwane Casey]

Its a good look for Lowry. We've all seen him make it time and time before.

Good look based on what evidence? We've all seen him miss it time and time before as well.

[RandomGuy]

Good look based on what evidence? We've all seen him miss it time and time before as well.

He hits it from time to time, he missed it when it really matters.

[Bandit]

Its a good look for Lowry. We've all seen him make it time and time before.

Interesting, so because a shot can be hit that makes it a viable look?

I usually tell the kids on my team that just because you can hit a pull up contested jumper, doesn't mean we shouldn't run the play to get the nice lay up under the net.

Hittable does not default to good look. Especially when 3/11 or whatever he was at that point

[Chr1s1anL]

I'm not upset with the shot cause it was clean look for our best player. Who makes that shot all the time. Even on the raptors post up they said the same thing.

[tDotted]

I'm not upset with the shot cause it was clean look for our best player. Who makes that shot all the time. Even on the raptors post up they said the same thing.

i don't need to pull up stats to know he doesn't hit his floaters even 40% of the time. let alone, running from the backcourt ones.

[The Great One]

I'm not upset with the shot cause it was clean look for our best player. Who makes that shot all the time. Even on the raptors post up they said the same thing.

Tony Parker.

Hate that shot because it's way too predictable and i don't think Lowry is comfortable with that shot. They should've set up something else. Like Amir rolling to the hoop or something.

[TeamEd]

Concerning what TeamEd wrote, I see you don't dig JV, it's obvious. But how many times have JV shot the ball during the last 4th quarter minute during his career in Toronto? It would be hilarious if you can recall something. If he wasn't given opportunity how can you judge him and compare and contrast?

Hey, I get why you might think I don't like him. But, you're mistaking my dislike for back-down-the-opposing-centre post ups for disliking the player. I do like JV. A lot. With reservations.

In JV I see a potential franchise centre who is a longer way off than most people realize, especially on defence. Especially, especially in *this* defence.

On offense, JV has about as much low post potential as any young centre not named Anthony Davis. He's already developing a signature shot in his little righty hook from the left block with some developing counter moves. He's as strong as anybody in the league. He rolls to the basket well and is already a good finisher. When his motor is going, he's can be a dominant (but not elite) offensive rebounder. And, he'll be truly scary once he sticks that Marc Gasol set shot from 15+ feet with consistency. He's a throwback centre who doesn't really fit the 2015 game that well and he needs to improve his passing, awareness and effort level. But, with that shot he can be a top 5 offensive centre sooner rather than later.

Today, he has the ability to get an OK look off in those bruising one-on-one post ups against anyone. His righty hook is a fantastic skill, but it's not yet an efficient look, it slows down the offense and he turns it over too much. There's room for those post ups as part of a balanced offense, but forcing them is no different than forcing an ISO from the guards (and even that happens less that people think, a lot of the Raps "ISOs" are drives off screens).

That said, he should probably get more of those in the 4th quarter just to keep the defence honest. Yes, there was room for him to get at least a couple of those last night. But, really it's a ~45% at best look when one-on-one that brings a high chance of a turnover when the other team doubles. A Lou or Kyle drive is usually going to be a more efficient look than dumping it down to JV to back down one-on-one from 10 feet. The team should be more patient getting JV those looks, but he hasn't shown a lot of ability to play through doubles. So, those looks aren't really a good option when the opposition adjusts -- like Detroit did last night. I much prefer him as a finisher rolling to the basket and as an option under the basket in the course of a play. That was his role in the first half last night. That JV is the best JV. That JV with the 12 foot jumper and the ability to pass out of a double is a dominant NBA big man.

Unfortunately, JV's biggest weaknesses right now have nothing to do with his offensive potential. The fact is JV continues to give up more on defense than he creates at the other end. The reason for this seems to me to be that he's a square peg in Dwayne Casey's system. JV seems to want to be a stay-at-home-principle-of-verticality big in the mould of Roy Hibbert, but the Raps' system is asking him to be a mobile help oriented centre in the mould of Tyson Chandler. And, he's neither. He consistently offers average rim protection coupled with quite poor help defense. He's being dragged in both directions on defence and the result isn't especially pretty.

I could expand on this, but I've done that before. He's a step slow. His reactions on cutting guards aren't great. He's an attrocious on-ball defender against shooting bigs. His defensive motor is inconsistent. He is slow to get into rebounding position after giving up the shot. Etc.

It's not that he couldn't be a really good NBA defender, it's that he isn't in this system. Watch how Hansborough and Amir switch onto cutting guards off the pick and roll and then recovers back to the post. That right there is central big man motion in the Raps' current defence. This defense is all about help. We could go on about how smart it is to build a help oriented defense around a bruising stay-at-home centre, but that's moot to the current situation. There are two Raps' bigs who have the mobility, size and rebounding ability to pull that off, and JV isn't one of them.

This is all reflected in the stats. JV is currently, by some margin, the worst rotation Raptor by on/off splits not named Landry Fields. He's comfortably worse that TRoss by NetRtg at -1.2. He produces the worst OffRtg at 108.3 and he's slightly better than Chuck by DffRtg at 109.5. That's comfortably worse on D than both Lou and GV. Even yesterday -- and I'm going to get flamed for this -- he was on court for the Pistons comeback and ended at a -14.

None of this is me flaming JV. I like him. I like his game. I think he has monster potential and I want him to get there. Despite his weaknesses I think he should play more in the 4th.

The only place where I disagree with the people wanting to get him more looks is where I want those looks to come from (not 10+ feet out on the left block) and whether I want the team to give him looks anyway if the defense is doubling (I don't).

[Dwane Casey]

i don't need to pull up stats to know he doesn't hit his floaters even 40% of the time. let alone, running from the backcourt ones.

Lowry hits a covered 3, KCP misses a 3. Raps down 1, with ball, 14.8 left. I bet they give it to Lowry going downhill.

— Eric Koreen (@ekoreen) January 13, 2015

I have a mole

[Bandit]

I'm not upset with the shot cause it was clean look for our best player. Who makes that shot all the time. Even on the raptors post up they said the same thing.

But that's the thing, he really wasn't our best player.

One of the reasons the hawks are so successful right now is the understanding that the best player will be dictated by the game and by what type of shots the defence is allowing. Casey would appear to give the impression that the best player is lowry with a few exceptions based on situation. He doesn't let the game dictate that.

Our best player was the 7 footer shooting 93%. If we want our best player taking that shot then we need to look at who's playing well in that game.

Until we have a truly undeniably elite closer then its the hot hand should be shooting.

[TeamEd]

Is a floater at full speed actually a really good look?

If so, why do we essentially never see this as a play-call at the end of games?

And did that shot not remind anyone else of Lowry's last shot against Brooklyn?

My guess is that Lowry is ~40-45% or so on that floater. He got it off pretty cleanly. It's an OK look. It missed. He had a bad day. Shrug.

[Dwane Casey]

My guess is that Lowry is ~40-45% or so on that floater. He got it off pretty cleanly. It's an OK look. It missed. He had a bad day. Shrug.

It's nice that you're OK with an OK look