Everything 2024 Draft

[Primer]

Primer, you watched him play. He was not good and no GM would have given up a 1st the way he was playing, Those "reports" seem totally bogus. As for not wanting another 1st, they are easily traded like he did with the pick he sent Utah.

He has an entire career to look at instead of a half season with the Pacers, which is what GMs had to go on at the trade deadline. GMs aren't so stupid to only look at his most recent few games and ignore that he was just a key piece in Denvers championship (why he got that big Pacers deal in the 1st place).

[Primer]

This is silly. Using aggregrates is pretty useless for an NBA front office when it's time to make the actual franchise-altering pick, since we already know that top 5 is statistically where the all-NBA are coming from. RR could make a top 5 list and it would probably be just as good.

And you can already pencil in Lebron, Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, MJ, AI, Wemby, etc... as All-NBA for years at a time, so that's why the top picks are there... even at a low success rate of 33%, in your example. It doesn't require any special draft expertise to project those top guys as high picks. And you keep calling the lower pick GOATs, MVPs & All-Stars as extreme outliers, yet there are so many of them.

You literally just proved yourself wrong. Most all nba guys were top 5 picks. The analysts are great at identifying the top talent and ranking them as such. The next most common guys on All NBA teams are lotto picks 6-14. Once again, they are doing their job extremely well. The next most common guys on All NBA teams are picks 15-30. Once again doing their job well. The least common are 2nd round picks, the extreme outliers. So thanks for admitting you were wrong.

[Primer]

Most #1 picks never won an NCAA title, yet we all knew they were top picks. And we never had mocks to tell us that.

You definitely had draft analysts telling you who the top guys were. There has also been mocks as long as I can remember. Definitely for the last 25 years. NBA Draft dot net was releasing mocks since 1999.

[golden]

You literally just proved yourself wrong. Most all nba guys were top 5 picks. The analysts are great at identifying the top talent and ranking them as such. The next most common guys on All NBA teams are lotto picks 6-14. Once again, they are doing their job extremely well. The next most common guys on All NBA teams are picks 15-30. Once again doing their job well. The least common are 2nd round picks, the extreme outliers. So thanks for admitting you were wrong.

And flubbing 11 out of the last 20 (> 50%), i.e., 2 decades of MVPs awarded? That's your definition of "outlier", correct?

Those MVPs should've all been mocked or picked top 3, or even top 5 in their draft year... if we're being generous.

[MixxAOR]

this is still a great hit rate

[A.I]

this is still a great hit rate

So Spurs aren't getting an All star with our pick

[golden]

this is still a great hit rate

Really? Pick 7 & 8 have the similar success rate to: 12, 14, 15, 20, 25, 30 & 60. That's basically a dart-board after pick #6.

Like I keep saying.... we have different criteria for success. I'm just willing to accept the reality of dart board nature after you get beyond the top 5.

[MixxAOR]

Really? Pick 7 & 8 have the similar success rate to: 12, 14, 15, 20, 25, 30 & 60. That's basically a dart-board after pick #6.

Like I keep saying.... we have different criteria for success. I'm just willing to accept the reality of dart board nature after you get beyond the top 5.

doesn't mean that scouting is useless though just means scouts rarely let talent fall that far.

[3inthekeon]

Yeah, I posted pick 8 a while back. The last All Star picked 8th was Vin Baker in 1993. But even though pick 8 has been awful historically, pick 9 has been really good, only the top 3 picks with a better hit rate. Despite all that, I'm positive no team would give up 8 for 9 even up.

[LJ2]

Not really liking any of the players mock drafts have the Raps picking at 19. I don't think they'll be looking for a guy with star potential at that part of the draft so I'm leaning towards guys that look like they could be good role players. Tristan Da Silva fits that description pretty well.

[The Great One]

Since Carter is likely not going to be there at 19. I have a new top 3:

1. Carrington
2. Djurisic
3. Dadiet

[3inthekeon]

Since Carter is likely not going to be there at 19. I have a new top 3:

1. Carrington
2. Djurisic
3. Dadiet

For anyone wondering who the heck is Djurisic:

Nikola Djurisic, SG/SF, Mega MIS: Djurisic, ESPN's No. 53-ranked prospect, had a quiet first day, scoring 4 points in 11 minutes, but in the final scrimmage scored 16 points in 21 minutes -- giving teams a stronger viewing of his offensive versatility.

He made a pair of 3s off movement, several above the rim finishes running the floor and attacking closeouts and showed his passing vision with creative and unselfish play.

After two up and down seasons on a Mega MIS team, it was important for Djurisic to show he can hold his own against his American peers. NBA teams still have some questions about his feel for the game, shooting consistency and general streakiness, but big wings in Djurisic's mold who have size, skills, shot-making versatility and passing aren't easy to come by, making him a viable prospect to draft in the second round. -- Givony

[golden]

For anyone wondering who the heck is Djurisic:

Nikola Djurisic, SG/SF, Mega MIS: Djurisic, ESPN's No. 53-ranked prospect, had a quiet first day, scoring 4 points in 11 minutes, but in the final scrimmage scored 16 points in 21 minutes -- giving teams a stronger viewing of his offensive versatility.

He made a pair of 3s off movement, several above the rim finishes running the floor and attacking closeouts and showed his passing vision with creative and unselfish play.

After two up and down seasons on a Mega MIS team, it was important for Djurisic to show he can hold his own against his American peers. NBA teams still have some questions about his feel for the game, shooting consistency and general streakiness, but big wings in Djurisic's mold who have size, skills, shot-making versatility and passing aren't easy to come by, making him a viable prospect to draft in the second round. -- Givony

Isn't the ABA (Adriatic) one of the weaker professional leagues? He didn't really improve much year-to-year. Compare that to a guy like Sengun, who dominated the Turkish league as a 17-18 yo.

https://www.basketball-reference.com...jurisic-1.html

[The Great One]

Still think we need to prioritize drafting a PG in the second round.

[Primer]

And flubbing 11 out of the last 20 (> 50%), i.e., 2 decades of MVPs awarded? That's your definition of "outlier", correct?

Those MVPs should've all been mocked or picked top 3, or even top 5 in their draft year... if we're being generous.

Love how you've moved the goal posts to MVP so you can stick to your extreme outlier in Jokic.

Jokic is the only MVP ever, that's right ever, who wasn't drafted in the top half of the 1st round.