Everything Derozan

[Snooch]

Based on those numbers he is elite at finishing at the rim, especially considering a lot of those are likely off Isos compared to guys like Barnes and Klay who play in one of the best movement offences in the league. Also it's not really a big deal but you adjusted some of those percentages (by a point) to make the gap bigger than it is.

As for the spot up numbers yes they include his corner 3s. They also include every other type of spot up shot he takes including above the break threes, which he is horrible at. Doesn't change the fact that he shot 39 percent from the corners

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% if shots assisted 0-3 feet
% if shots assisted 0-3 feet
Barnes 61.00%
Klay 55.00%
Beal 53.00%
Demar 41.00%
Victor 31.00%
Evans 25.00%


So amungst these5 other guys, demar was assisted the thrid least amount.

And remember this list doesn’t include Kobe, Wade, Harden, Mathews, and Demar still averages out to Demar having:
the 5th lowest percentage of shots there
The 4th Lowest FG%
the 3rd Lowest amount of assisted opportunities

And you call him elite

And I am not changing any fact, or discrediting any shot, he shot 38% on corner threes, which was only 50 shots...I am more hesitant to say that if he took 75 or 80 of those shots that he would maintain an 38% average when all his other catch and shoot shots are so bad. That statistic also includes catch and shoot from 15 feet as well. Theoretically, a 15 footer should be a much easier shot to make than a 22 footer from the side. I am far more inclined to call that 38% from that one spot on the floor more of an anomaly and that his actual percentages are far closer to that of the overall average.

You cannot state that he shoots a high percentage from one spot on the floor, so he can just shoot that over and over and all other variables will remain the same.

[Snooch]

Again it really depends on the makeup of the rest of the team. For example on our current team, if Jonas can develop and be deployed as a reliable go to post scorer then kd and DC is probably a better fit. However on a team with more defensive oriented bigs like maybe Utah for example, I think dd and kd would be better.

Also my main problem was people saying dd can't play with kd which just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

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He can play with KD, just not as effectively as essentially every single other SG in the nBA.

[Snooch]

Hey guys, the important thing is all this will be settled soon when the season starts (relatively soon). Casey and Demar are both coaching/playing for their Raptor lives. They have no more excuses. We gave DC all the defensive players he can handle, and we finally paired DD up with a complementary wing who is great at the things he isn't, and is fine with playing the 2nd/3rd/4th fiddle offensively. We also have defensive backup PG/SGs to further take the defensive load off DD, the perimeter defense has to be better this year, it just has to. I know it's fun to argue in circles, but maybe everyone should just lay out their predictions for DD's defense and offense this year and leave it at that until the games start. If some new info or a new article rolls in, by all means lets talk about it, but I think we've beaten the "DD's defense horse" to death, and then continued to bludgeon it until we couldn't distinguish it from the ground underneath.

To get things going, here's my prediction for DD this year:

A career best 105 DRtg
A career best 112 ORtg
A career best 35% from 3pt land, with the vast majority of 3's being shot from the corner where he's actually good.
A career high 3.5 3pt attempts per game
A career high .540 TS%
A career high .450 FG%
4.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game

It's a contract year with the best Raps squad DD has ever played with, so I'm expecting a career year. No reason to be anything but optimistic at this point. We'll have plenty of time to crucify DD during the season if he doesn't hit my lofty goals outlined here.

What's everyone else's prediction for DD using the stats I used?

First off Demar was never given any Defensive loads ever. So I do not see any way that he is going to improve his defense so dramatically.

Offensive rating is not going to make that kid of jump unless he improves his TS% by about 50points to get it in that range, and he has done nothing to suggest that that type of curve is being worked, instead it has stayed relatively consistant throughout his career. I cannot think of any instances where a player improved his shooting by 50 points on TS% in his 7th year in the league ever.

He shot over 45% his first 2 years in the league

To get 4,.5 and 4.5 is putting the ball into his hands ALOT, and with Lowry being the better player, JV apparently finally getting more touches, Ppat with an expanded Role, incorporating Carroll I dont see enough touches being available without costing other players who deserve to have the ball.

[JWash]

First off Demar was never given any Defensive loads ever. So I do not see any way that he is going to improve his defense so dramatically.

Offensive rating is not going to make that kid of jump unless he improves his TS% by about 50points to get it in that range, and he has done nothing to suggest that that type of curve is being worked, instead it has stayed relatively consistant throughout his career. I cannot think of any instances where a player improved his shooting by 50 points on TS% in his 7th year in the league ever.

He shot over 45% his first 2 years in the league

What do you mean by 50 points? True shooting percentage is a percentage.... I'm going to assume by 50 points you mean 5%. DD had a 110 oRTG in 2013-14, so an improve in efficiency and production over that year combined with the team also being better offensively than it was that year could lead to a 112 oRTG. I don't put much stock in that stat anyway, but it could happen.

To get 4,.5 and 4.5 is putting the ball into his hands ALOT, and with Lowry being the better player, JV apparently finally getting more touches, Ppat with an expanded Role, incorporating Carroll I dont see enough touches being available without costing other players who deserve to have the ball.

I'm not sure how getting 4.5 rebounds requires him to have the ball in his hands a lot. And Primer said 4 assists... Considering DeRozan average 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 2013-14... I don't see how 4.5 and 4.0 is a crazy prediction. He's essentially already done it.

[thead]

so many stats...at a certain point you could cherry pick a data set and make it say whatever you want

[Primer]

What do you mean by 50 points? True shooting percentage is a percentage.... I'm going to assume by 50 points you mean 5%. DD had a 110 oRTG in 2013-14, so an improve in efficiency and production over that year combined with the team also being better offensively than it was that year could lead to a 112 oRTG. I don't put much stock in that stat anyway, but it could happen.




I'm not sure how getting 4.5 rebounds requires him to have the ball in his hands a lot. And Primer said 4 assists... Considering DeRozan average 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 2013-14... I don't see how 4.5 and 4.0 is a crazy prediction. He's essentially already done it.

I was also puzzled when he disagreed with the rebound and assist numbers as I chose numbers he as already achieved before. I listed them last because they were my least bold prediction.

And none of you have provided the predictions I requested....you bastards.

[JWash]

I was also puzzled when he disagreed with the rebound and assist numbers as I chose numbers he as already achieved before. I listed them last because they were my least bold prediction.

Basically anything positive about DD will get refuted from that end.

As for predictions, I think I agree with yours tbh. Maybe a bit more conservative on the oRTG and dRTG. FG% 43-44. 3P 32-33%

[Snooch]

What do you mean by 50 points? True shooting percentage is a percentage.... I'm going to assume by 50 points you mean 5%. DD had a 110 oRTG in 2013-14, so an improve in efficiency and production over that year combined with the team also being better offensively than it was that year could lead to a 112 oRTG. I don't put much stock in that stat anyway, but it could happen.

No need for assumption, that is a pretty obvious statement.

I'm not sure how getting 4.5 rebounds requires him to have the ball in his hands a lot. And Primer said 4 assists... Considering DeRozan average 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 2013-14... I don't see how 4.5 and 4.0 is a crazy prediction. He's essentially already done it.

And back to an arguement based on a typographical error in which I failed to properly delete out a part of a previous though as the basis of your debate.

Demar carried a very very high usage to get the 4.3 and 4 you mentioned, what you have failed to do in your debate is counter my point that for him to do that again would require consistant high usage(as indicated by past performance) and that with the mentioning of JV having a larger role, Lowry being the teams most important player, adding Carrol, Ppat with a larger role offensively, Ross with with a constant role to last season, and the addition of Cujo of doubting that we can afford Demar the huge usage while increasing other players at the same time.

That is the point I made, and you debate it by saying he almost did it in the past with no explanation for countering and overcoming my points.

[Snooch]

I was also puzzled when he disagreed with the rebound and assist numbers as I chose numbers he as already achieved before. I listed them last because they were my least bold prediction.

And none of you have provided the predictions I requested....you bastards.

I made a very valid reason as to why I disagree with the assist.

[Snooch]

Basically anything positive about DD will get refuted from that end.

and again that is another gross exaggeration of the truth similar to a child taking his ball and going home.

[Primer]

I made a very valid reason as to why I disagree with the assist.

Well, our team had one of the lowest assist totals in the NBA, so assuming we pass the ball a lot more this season, it should offset the decreased usage. Anyways, just give your predictions and any reasoning behind them, that's what I was hoping to get with my post.

[Wild-ling#1]

My only argument is he is not worth the contract he is bound to get. For various reasons, including his lack of above-average defence, his lack of efficiency in a primary scoring role, and his unproven ability to be an effective secondary scorer (which also ties into the defence argument as it becomes so much more important if he is guarding the best wing to save our new 1A guy for offence).

The context of these arguments, it is important to note, is based on his likely status as a max or near max contract earner. Obviously blemishes are to be expected in any player - but too many blemishes on a guy who will eat 25% of your cap can be pretty problematic in building a team.

This is an opinion/argument. Only that. And at least you have the wherewithal to acknowledge that an as yet unidentified actual NBA general manager will likely back the contrary view ... with $100M or so. And his job. Precisely because it will likely be understood, by those who actually get to make these decisions, that it will take about that much money to secure his services.

My problem with your argument is not that it is unsupportable. I remind you that I am not suggesting that my player-evaluation abilities are superior to anyone's. Or even as good. It is that your argument, as often stated, and while you know these things

(1) typically ignores, or side-steps, the fact that DD and KL have made us a perennial playoff team on the rise. It side-steps the views (not mine) of those who select all-star teams and U.S. National Teams ... and those of people who know Demar personally (and those who play with him) that he is a man of character who, by himself, makes Toronto a more attractive free agent destination.

and (most especially)

(2) is relentlessly negative ... and yet speculative (and needlessly in advance of seeing how Masai's new team performs) regarding an all-star player on our home team. I am here to enjoy following the Raptors. I like critical reasoning. I do not like disrespectful and insulting diatribes about our own guys. Unless they're confirmed A-holes. Sue me.

But I suspect your problem is really with the free market. Perhaps you would be more comfortable with some kind of "command economy" ... with you (and Snooch and a select "geniocracy") providing the values for players.

I remind you that this is precisely the kind of thing they tried in Springfield - where an obscure rule of the constitution allowed for a citizens council to take control of the government (The episode is called "They Saved Lisa's Brain". Stephen Hawking guest stars).

The results were, shall we say ... slightly below average.

Maybe you can spot yourselves in image below:

[Chr1s1anL]

Meh.

stats.... bleh.

When DD leaves and you have nobody to fill his shoes.... you might see things a bit differently.

He's an average defender in the NBA. Not bad, not good.... its a non discussion.

He hits the glass well.
He puts a shit load of pressure on opposing bigs by attacking.

He shoots way too many contested fade aways

he's not without blemishes.... but damn... the negative shit he gets on this board.... mind boggling.

Honestly I've seen anything like this. You would think he was Bargnani or something.

[Mindlessness]

This is an opinion/argument. Only that. And at least you have the wherewithal to acknowledge that an as yet unidentified actual NBA general manager will likely back the contrary view ... with $100M or so. And his job. Precisely because it will likely be understood, by those who actually get to make these decisions, that it will take about that much money to secure his services.

My problem with your argument is not that it is unsupportable. I remind you that I am not suggesting that my player-evaluation abilities are superior to anyone's. Or even as good. It is that your argument, as often stated, and while you know these things

(1) typically, or side-steps, the fact that DD and KL have made us a perennial playoff team on the rise. It side-steps the views (not mine) of those who select all-star teams and U.S. National Teams ... and those of people who know Demar personally (and those who play with him) that he is a man of character who, by himself, makes Toronto a more attractive free agent destination.

and (most especially)

(2) is relentlessly negative ... and yet speculative (and needlessly in advance of seeing how Masai's new team performs) regarding an all-star player on our home team. I am here to enjoy following the Raptors. I like critical reasoning. I do not like disrespectful and insulting diatribes about our own guys. Unless they're confirmed A-holes. Sue me.

But I suspect your problem is really with the free market. Perhaps you would be more comfortable with some kind of "command economy" ... with you (and Snooch and a select "geniocracy") providing the values for players.

I remind you that this is precisely the kind of thing they tried in Springfield - where an obscure rule of the constitution allowed for a citizens council to take control of the government (The episode is called "They stole Lisa's Brain". Stephen Hawking guest stars).

The results were, shall we say ... slightly below average.

Maybe you can spot yourselves in image below:

...what?

[Wild-ling#1]

Honestly I've seen anything like this. You would think he was Bargnani or something.

I think you misunderstood Superjudge here. I'm pretty sure he's not one of the "Just Dump Derozan!" chorus.