Everything Derozan

[JWash]

All I'm saying is that DeMar's 2013-14 is pretty much the absolute, absolute best case scenario for a foul drawing scorer, and he still was only slightly better than his middling efficiency in the regular season. And we can't expect that to be the norm. And if the best case scenario is roughly in line with his regular season, then a more reasonable expectation is a drop off from the regular season (and DeRozan is a player who cannot afford even a slight drop off in efficiency, as he's typically only on the positive side of the efficiency/usage curve by a sliver).

Looking at that 2013-14 season again, he saw his FG% at the rim drop 3%, his FG% from 3-10 feet drop 9%, and his FG% from 10-16 feet drop by 30% (yes, from 40% to 8%...) in the playoffs. Remember, FGA's are only on plays in which no foul is called, and those are the regions where he will need to score from when fouls aren't being called. Reality is he lived entirely at the line, and that 68% FTr is completely unrealistic to expect.

Here are the players from that playoffs that posted a 60%+ FTr (among the top 50 WS producers to filter for high usage and minutes players - DD was 33rd):

Tiago Splitter
Chris Andersen
DeAndre Jordan
Dwight Howard
DeMar DeRozan
Taj Gibson

Just centres, mostly, a couple of whom are hack-a-Shaq candidates.

Over 50% (the above, plus):
Paul Millsap
Steven Adams

Over 40% (the above, plus):
LBJ
Paul George
Westbrook
Blake Griffin
Robin Lopez
Kyle Lowry
John Wall

Also note James Harden, at 37%.

Which group does DeRozan really belong in?

He's a high usage, primary scoring option. Very much like that 3rd group. He's never had a FTr above 50% for any season, including this current partial one. It's possible through statistical variation that he could have another freakishly high FTr, but it is hardly something to plan for.

I'm not expecting him to have a FTR above 50%... when did I say that? All I'm saying is I don't expect a significant drop-off in his ability to draw fouls in the playoffs, because most statistics and NBA trends suggest that isn't what happens in the playoffs. So yeah he probably won't shoot 11 FT per game like he did in 2014, but I also think his smarter approach to the game will result in him not taking 39% of his FGs in the playoffs from 16-23 feet.

it's all about shot selection really. There's no reason why he can't shoot 60%+ at the rim in the playoffs and maintain his 50%+ on drives while also still getting to the line 7-8 times per game. All he needs to do is make sure that getting into the paint remains the focus as opposed to taking 20 footers.

[DanH]

I'm not expecting him to have a FTR above 50%... when did I say that? All I'm saying is I don't expect a significant drop-off in his ability to draw fouls in the playoffs, because most statistics and NBA trends suggest that isn't what happens in the playoffs. So yeah he probably won't shoot 11 FT per game like he did in 2014, but I also think his smarter approach to the game will result in him not taking 39% of his FGs in the playoffs from 16-23 feet.

it's all about shot selection really. There's no reason why he can't shoot 60%+ at the rim in the playoffs and maintain his 50%+ on drives while also still getting to the line 7-8 times per game. All he needs to do is make sure that getting into the paint remains the focus as opposed to taking 20 footers.

There is every reason to believe he can't maintain those percentages and it is what I've been outlining, teams foul more, and not all of those fouls are called in the playoffs. 2PT% drops across the league in the playoffs.

I certainly hope he will play this way in the playoffs as well, but in the playoffs is where you tend to run up against the elite wing defenders of the league, who tend not to allow easy baskets OR foul. And it is in those scenarios where DD has historically settled for long twos.

I actually think the more critical part of his game in the playoffs will be passing. WAS tore us to pieces just by assuming the guards wouldn't pass and doubling like crazy, and it worked. If he can continue to improve his passing and actually look for his teammates MORE in the playoffs when his individual scoring will be harder to generate, he'll be in good shape. But that's a big if.

[JWash]

There is every reason to believe he can't maintain those percentages and it is what I've been outlining, teams foul more, and not all of those fouls are called in the playoffs. 2PT% drops across the league in the playoffs.

I certainly hope he will play this way in the playoffs as well, but in the playoffs is where you tend to run up against the elite wing defenders of the league, who tend not to allow easy baskets OR foul. And it is in those scenarios where DD has historically settled for long twos.

I actually think the more critical part of his game in the playoffs will be passing. WAS tore us to pieces just by assuming the guards wouldn't pass and doubling like crazy, and it worked. If he can continue to improve his passing and actually look for his teammates MORE in the playoffs when his individual scoring will be harder to generate, he'll be in good shape. But that's a big if.

Well the lower end of those %s is less than what he's averaging. Also not only 2PT% drops, so does 3PT%. In general it's just tougher to make shots in the playoffs. That's not exclusive to drives or exclusive to threes it's just the reality.

If DeRozan averages 55 TS% this season I'd expect his playoff TS% to be like 53% or so playing the same style. Since yes it is harder to score consistently against playoff defenses. But top options usually do have a dropoff in efficiency during the playoffs especially because you're playing the same team several times in a row so they can gameplan for you much more effectively.

DeRozan has played fine against elite wing defenders this year, again it's just about focus. If he reverts to 2014-15 DeMar? He's going to struggle #mostdefinitely as DeMar would say. If he plays like this I'd expect his level of play to be about the same or maybe slightly better or slightly worse depending on how well the opposing team gameplans for him.

And of course passing will be critical, that's kind of the point. I'm talking about making a concerted effort to avoid taking 35+% of his shots from 16-23 feet, that is bad news. That means either not settling or moving the ball when you can't beat your man and the defense gives you no choice but to settle. Something that he's been doing this season.

And just a reminder that the crux of the initial debate here was whether or not DD can draw fouls at the same kind of rate as he is now in the playoffs, to which I think the answer would be yes.

[DanH]

As to the crux of the debate - I think he can draw fouls at the same rate, but only at a cost to his FG%. And with his efficiency on the razor's edge of good top option/bad top option, that's not great.

[Joey]

Wow ... I hate to Jinx it, but this has been quiet for 36 hours ... this is like in WW2 when they put down their guns for Xmas or something!

[JWash]

Wow ... I hate to Jinx it, but this has been quiet for 36 hours ... this is like in WW2 when they put down their guns for Xmas or something!

Don't worry, we're gonna pick those right back up again, just you wait

[Joey]

Don't worry, we're gonna pick those right back up again, just you wait

Well I'd say if I'm worried about anything, it'd be the type of sinister talk your making here ... Lol

[mcHAPPY]

I hope DeRozan is an all-star.

He deserves it this year....despite the fact that he can't shoot 3s.

[Puffer]

I hope DeRozan is an all-star.

He deserves it this year....despite the fact that he can't shoot 3s.

That's the Christmas Spirit.

[special1]

I hope DeRozan is an all-star.

He deserves it this year....despite the fact that he can't shoot 3s.

Don't forget to vote!


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[mcHAPPY]

That's the Christmas Spirit.

Your avatar is the perfect compliment to your post.

[Puffer]

Hope the Raptors deliver an nice Boxing Day special to us all today.

[Abbas]

Guys a easy way to Vote if you do not have twitter

Go on Google

Search "Raptors NBA Vote"

Select Derozan, Lowry, ect...

Submit your votes

Done!!!

& do this everyday and get people to do it everyday

[JimiCliff]

Another strong game from Demar! Loved his passing game today.

[special1]

Another strong game from Demar! Loved his passing game today.

+1


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