How do we fix our defense?

[Barolt]

Not really true. We have a sample size of JV and 2Pat playing 8 or so minutes per game together against primarily bench units and being elite offensively (120 oRTG) and about average relative to the team overall defensively (104 dRTG) - those are last year's regular season numbers btw. So we don't actually know that this would solve our defensive problems, in fact it seems a pretty farfetched idea that it would.

And this year, Patterson-JV has a 108.3 dRTG and Siakam-JV is at 107.6 so again even the lineup stats you've elected to focus on don't agree with that assessment.

By using 2-man unit numbers instead of 5-man unit numbers, you're introducing a lot of noise, when I was simply talking about the starting lineup.

KL/DD/DC/PS/JV: 129 minutes, 108.2 DRtg, -4.3 net rating.
KL/DD/DC/PP/JV: 48 minutes, 93.9 DRtg, +19.0 net rating.

Now, this gets a little weirder if you use Powell or Ross instead of Carroll, and it leans more towards Siakam than Patterson in those cases, but that's not the issue!

As long as Lowry, DeMar, and Carroll are starting, Patterson is the right power foward to start alongside them.

[Lupe]

I really think we've all (or most of us I guess) underestimated the impact Biyombo was actually having last year. Like Scraptor pointed out he had the best DRPM on the team by far and was a top 10-15 defensive player in the league. Plus if you look at the 2-man lineups, literally everyone played elite defense was on the court.

Lowry-Biyombo: 100.6 dRTG
DD-Biyombo: 101.8 dRTG
2Pat-Biyombo: 98.7 dRTG
CoJo-Biyombo: 98.1 dRTG
TRoss-Biyombo: 97.7 dRTG

etc.

Except Scola of course... oh Scola you dog... 108.0 dRTG

[Lupe]

By using 2-man unit numbers instead of 5-man unit numbers, you're introducing a lot of noise, when I was simply talking about the starting lineup.

KL/DD/DC/PS/JV: 129 minutes, 108.2 DRtg, -4.3 net rating.
KL/DD/DC/PP/JV: 48 minutes, 93.9 DRtg, +19.0 net rating.

Now, this gets a little weirder if you use Powell or Ross instead of Carroll, and it leans more towards Siakam than Patterson in those cases, but that's not the issue!

As long as Lowry, DeMar, and Carroll are starting, Patterson is the right power foward to start alongside them.

48 minutes... really? You can't discern anything from that kind of sample size.

[lewro]

Except, by simply starting Patrick Patterson, and making no other changes to our starting lineup, JV becomes servicable defensively. We have a sample size of more than a year demonstrating this.

Serviceable beats the bucks, not the cavs

[Barolt]

48 minutes... really?

48 minutes isn't a significant sample size, I'd agree - it's also not insignificant. It's enough to say that what we're seeing isn't simply a blip, but it's not enough to say that's where the numbers will stabilize.

[Lupe]

48 minutes isn't a significant sample size, I'd agree - it's also not insignificant. It's enough to say that what we're seeing isn't simply a blip, but it's not enough to say that's where the numbers will stabilize.

It absolutely is insignificant. There are almost 4000 minutes in an NBA season for a team.

[special1]

DeMar doesn't look too different to me this year compared to last year, so I checked his numbers.

DeMar's defensive RPM last year was -1.53. This year it's -1.63. There was also about a -4.9 gap in his on/off DRatg last year, not too different from this year's -5.7. So if he hasn't really changed that much defensively, it's probably something else that's going on.

So... I started going through all the Defensive RPM numbers.

Lucas was +1.36 last year, +1.37 this year.
Poeltl was not here last year, +1.36 this year.
Pascal was not here last year, +1.35 this year.
Patman was +0.87 last year, +0.77 this year.
JJ was +0.72 last year.
Carroll was +0.49 last year, +0.38 this year
Kyle was +0.40 last year, +0.29 this year
Jonas was +0.12 last year, +0.77 this year.
Scola was -0.01 last year.
Norm was -0.02 last year, -0.12 this year.
TRoss was -0.08 last year, -0.30 this year.
Delon was -0.64 last year.
Bruno was -0.89 last year.
Demar was -1.53 last year, -1.63 this year.
CoJo was -1.93 last year, -2.10 this year.

This is weird. No really big changes. Except...

Bismack Biyombo was a +3.02 last year (11th best in the league out of 428 players listed). And he's not here this year. Also note that he played 1800 minutes for us last year, fifth most on the team after Kyle, DeMar, CoJo, and Patman.

So here's my hypothesis.

In 2014-15 we were the 25th-ranked defense with no Bismack.
In 2015-16 we were the 11th-ranked defense with Bismack.
In 2016-17 we are the 24th-ranked defense with no Bismack.

Clearly Bismack is the most significant factor that changed here. He had the ability to erase mistakes from our perimeter guys like DeMar and CoJo that Jonas simply can't.

Exactly!

It's soooo obvious at this point that i think people just don't want to admit it because it doesn't line up with their narratives.

[Barolt]

It absolutely is insignificant. There are almost 4000 minutes in an NBA season for a team.

That '4000 minutes in an NBA season for a team' number is completely irrelevant to this discussion. By that measuring, everything that's happened thus far in the season is completely irrelevant, and we have no issues! We're a perfect team because we don't have a sample size to say otherwise!

[lewro]

By using 2-man unit numbers instead of 5-man unit numbers, you're introducing a lot of noise, when I was simply talking about the starting lineup.

KL/DD/DC/PS/JV: 129 minutes, 108.2 DRtg, -4.3 net rating.
KL/DD/DC/PP/JV: 48 minutes, 93.9 DRtg, +19.0 net rating.

Now, this gets a little weirder if you use Powell or Ross instead of Carroll, and it leans more towards Siakam than Patterson in those cases, but that's not the issue!

As long as Lowry, DeMar, and Carroll are starting, Patterson is the right power foward to start alongside them.

Pat is a very good backup. Let's get real here, we are competing with the best in the world and we are heavily outclassed. We need the most talent and best fit around demar and Kyle as possible.
We are trying to make some leftover parts from colangelo into a championship team. Not gonna happen. Masai has to make this team his own.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I really think we've all (or most of us I guess) underestimated the impact Biyombo was actually having last year. Like Scraptor pointed out he had the best DRPM on the team by far and was a top 10-15 defensive player in the league. Plus if you look at the 2-man lineups, literally everyone played elite defense was on the court.

Lowry-Biyombo: 100.6 dRTG
DD-Biyombo: 101.8 dRTG
2Pat-Biyombo: 98.7 dRTG
CoJo-Biyombo: 98.1 dRTG
TRoss-Biyombo: 97.7 dRTG

etc.

Except Scola of course... oh Scola you dog... 108.0 dRTG

I think the more interesting issue is why Biyombo had such an impact. Was he simply an amazing overall defender, or was he just the ideal defender to clean up the mess caused by other players? I think his departure really exposes the defensive shortcomings of the Raptor perimeter players, which was clearly evident with the eye-test last season.

This team isn't good defensively at the point-of-attack, and this year they don't have Biyombo waiting to bail them out. The underlying problem isn't Biyombo leaving, but rather the significant defensive shortcomings of Lowry and DeRoza (and Carroll).

The Patterson factor is similar to the Biyombo factor, in that he's smart and quick, with good natural defensive instincts. He knows the other players well and can help the team defense far better than a rookie can, hence the statistical discrepancies. However, the Patterson factor once again only serves to offset the glaring weakness, which is the team's perimeter defense.

[Barolt]

Pat is a very good backup. Let's get real here, we are competing with the best in the world and we are heavily outclassed. We need the most talent and best fit around demar and Kyle as possible.
We are trying to make some leftover parts from colangelo into a championship team. Not gonna happen. Masai has to make this team his own.

JR Smith was a castaway part, viewed as barely able to stay in the league. Then suddenly he was starting for a championship team.

Fit is easily as important as talent for a lot of positions on good teams, and Pat fits beside JV.

[Lupe]

I think the more interesting issue is why Biyombo had such an impact. Was he simply an amazing overall defender, or was he just the ideal defender to clean up the mess caused by other players? I think his departure really exposes the defensive shortcomings of the Raptor perimeter players, which was clearly evident with the eye-test last season.

This team isn't good defensively at the point-of-attack, and this year they don't have Biyombo waiting to bail them out. The underlying problem isn't Biyombo leaving, but rather the significant defensive shortcomings of Lowry and DeRoza (and Carroll).

The Patterson factor is similar to the Biyombo factor, in that he's smart and quick, with good natural defensive instincts. He knows the other players well and can help the team defense far better than a rookie can, hence the statistical discrepancies. However, the Patterson factor once again only serves to offset the glaring weakness, which is the team's perimeter defense.

Ok but here's my thing. If we know that's the issue then why not address it by getting a player who can do that? Lowry, DeRozan, etc aren't going to magically become elite defenders (and btw for all the harping on DeMar in this thread, Lowry has gotten absolutely torched by every other top PG he's faced this season).

Again part of building an elite team is getting players that can cover for other guy's weaknesses. Part of the reason Dallas never elevated to championship level until they got Chandler is because they never had a guy who could properly cover for Dirk's (and Terry's for that matter) shortcomings on the defensive end of the floor.

[Barolt]

Ok but here's my thing. If we know that's the issue then why not address it by getting a player who can do that? Lowry, DeRozan, etc aren't going to magically become elite defenders (and btw for all the harping on DeMar in this thread, Lowry has gotten absolutely torched by every other top PG he's faced this season).

Again part of building an elite team is getting players that can cover for other guy's weaknesses. Part of the reason Dallas never elevated to championship level until they got Chandler is because they never had a guy who could properly cover for Dirk's (and Terry's for that matter) shortcomings on the defensive end of the floor.

DeMar doesn't have to magically become elite! He just has to try, and not give up on plays. An increased defensive effort from him would make a world of difference, even if he never becomes any more competent.

[special1]

I think the more interesting issue is why Biyombo had such an impact. Was he simply an amazing overall defender, or was he just the ideal defender to clean up the mess caused by other players? I think his departure really exposes the defensive shortcomings of the Raptor perimeter players, which was clearly evident with the eye-test last season.

This team isn't good defensively at the point-of-attack, and this year they don't have Biyombo waiting to bail them out. The underlying problem isn't Biyombo leaving, but rather the significant defensive shortcomings of Lowry and DeRoza (and Carroll).

The Patterson factor is similar to the Biyombo factor, in that he's smart and quick, with good natural defensive instincts. He knows the other players well and can help the team defense far better than a rookie can, hence the statistical discrepancies. However, the Patterson factor once again only serves to offset the glaring weakness, which is the team's perimeter defense.

So my question is.....do we beat the dead horse with regards to the bad perimeter defence? OR do we get the actual piece that comes in to clean up the mess and cover up the deficiencies. It's a team game and the pieces need to fit.

The fact is that we have two of the best offensive guards in the league/east (that's a huge strength).....They are both playing at average to below average perimeter defence on most nights (their weakness). Why not get a big (like Biyombo) who's strength is his defence?

[Lupe]

JR Smith was a castaway part, viewed as barely able to stay in the league. Then suddenly he was starting for a championship team.

Fit is easily as important as talent for a lot of positions on good teams, and Pat fits beside JV.

2Pat-JV has been worse defensively than Siakam-JV so far this season. Siakam doesn't present the same issue defensively (of being slow as molasses) that Scola did next to Jonas (you will see that problem arise though when/if Sullinger comes back and starts at the 4). 2Pat and JV are an excellent fit on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively you still lack that elite level of rim protection.