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raptors999 wrote: View PostScole went from 16 to 6
He's 37 ... and his minutes are up, he's starting, shooting more (with a .421 3 pt %!), his assists are down (3.3 - 1.9/ 100 poss.) as are his rebounds (16.3 - 12.7/100).
I think it's only fair to leave Carroll out of this, this early and in all the circumstances. But ... as you will ...
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Wild-ling#1 wrote: View PostYou're saying Scola's assists fell from 16 to 6/100 possessions? I'm not sure what you're looking at ...
He's 37 ... and his minutes are up, he's starting, shooting more (with a .421 3 pt %!), his assists are down (3.3 - 1.9/ 100 poss.) as are his rebounds (16.3 - 12.7/100).
I think it's only fair to leave Carroll out of this, this early and in all the circumstances. But ... as you will ...
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raptors999 wrote: View PostFinger slipped - Asst% per 100 poss. fell from over 10 every year to 6.9 this year
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Wild-ling#1 wrote: View PostI'm plainly not arguing that. I'm arguing that Lowry's assists have not plummeted (as against a statement that all Raptors players assist numbers plummet under Casey).
And I've been looking at ast/100 possessions. I understand they offer a more accurate representation of a player's tendencies than the (raw) ast/game stat (where a drop in MPG could imply an alteration in Lowry's style of play, under Casey, that has not occurred - until this year ... so far ... and in all the circumstances).
Lowry's last season in Houston: AST% / USG% = 32.3 / 22.0 = 1.46.
Second last season, the ratio was: 1.56
Lowry's current season in TOR: AST% / USG% = 30.8 / 26.8 = 1.15
Definitely down. Vasquez (especially last season) and Rudy Gay (especially before he got traded) are great examples of AST/USG ratios plummeting under Casey. There is an un-deniable statistical trend there: before, during and after Casey. Translation: Pass less & shoot moreLast edited by golden; Wed Dec 16, 2015, 06:55 PM.
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Wild-ling#1 wrote: View PostWell, that's not /100, but okay. And though he's not himself been injured, passing to Biyombo and Ross isn't ideal, obviously. There have been adjustments (like his improved 3 pt. shooting - like Lowry). But whatever ...
Sure, there are loads of reasons why everyone has their assist rates plateau at best and plummet at worst. But the chief reason among them is that this team has become more and more focused on individual play and less and less likely to move the ball, no matter what players (Carroll, Joseph, Vasquez, Scola) with good passing resumes are brought in.
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DanH wrote: View PostAST% already dropped to 8.3% before JV went down and well before Ross was starting. Meanwhile his 20% usage is only a slight drop from his recent norms.
Sure, there are loads of reasons why everyone has their assist rates plateau at best and plummet at worst. But the chief reason among them is that this team has become more and more focused on individual play and less and less likely to move the ball, no matter what players (Carroll, Joseph, Vasquez, Scola) with good passing resumes are brought in.
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DanH wrote: View PostAST% already dropped to 8.3% before JV went down and well before Ross was starting. Meanwhile his 20% usage is only a slight drop from his recent norms.
Sure, there are loads of reasons why everyone has their assist rates plateau at best and plummet at worst. But the chief reason among them is that this team has become more and more focused on individual play and less and less likely to move the ball, no matter what players (Carroll, Joseph, Vasquez, Scola) with good passing resumes are brought in.
But we'll be starting from scratch (as JV finds his legs) in a month or so. It's a shame. I guess those of us who thought we couldn't progress (under Casey) will remain unmoved by our misfortunes early this season on this account, anyway). But I'm pretty down about it. Not down generally - they weathered things quite well, I think. But disappointed, nonetheless ...
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golden wrote: View PostYou have to normalize for USG and look at the AST%/USG% ratio. As your USG goes up, your assists will go up, simply from having the ball in your hands more. That should be obvious. Lowry is definitely down from his Rockets years.
Lowry's last season in Houston: AST% / USG% = 32.3 / 22.0 = 1.46.
Second last season, the ratio was: 1.56
Lowry's current season in TOR: AST% / USG% = 30.8 / 26.8 = 1.15
Definitely down. Vasquez (especially last season) and Rudy Gay (especially before he got traded) are great examples of AST/USG ratios plummeting under Casey. There is an un-deniable statistical trend there: before, during and after Casey. Translation: Pass less & shoot more
But if I even suggest any theory of causation for any (negative) phenomenon (if Lowry's shooting more this year is simply a negative phenomenon), other than "it's all Casey's fault!", I am told I have "strayed from reality". Am a Casey "homer".
But according to the B-ball Reference's ast/100 possessions figures, three out of Lowry's four best assist years have come in Toronto. Under Casey.
So as for any nuanced discussion of Scola's ups-and-downs ... maybe another time ...Last edited by Wild-ling#1; Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:52 AM.
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Miekenstien wrote: View Postso the opposite is also true and everyone can begrudgingly give him his due. thanks for thatHeir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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Wild-ling#1 wrote: View PostBut if I even suggest any theory of causation for any (negative) phenomenon (if Lowry's shooting more this year is simply a negative phenomenon), other than "it's all Casey's fault!", I am told I have "strayed from reality". Am a Casey "homer".
The topic in question was: JV doesn't get many assists and most feel that this isn't a skill that can be assessed for JV since assist numbers under Casey are low for all players.
You then go on explaining that Lowry's assist numbers are at least comparable to his previous seasons - so you are clinging to the one player that has maintained assists under Casey and ignoring the facts that support the original point. You then make up excuses for Lowry's bad numbers this season, starting with injuries (even though his numbers were equal before injuries) and then sample size (even though the numbers have been consistent all year).
So while you continually beat the Lowry assist numbers drum (a debatable result) it is fairly irrelevant to the original point, which is greatly supported by the decline in team assists in each of the last 3 years and the decline of individual assist rates for pretty much every other player.
Choosing to argue the statistical outlier while completely ignoring all other stats, in defence of Casey, without addressing the actual point of the discussion does make you seem like the ultimate Casey apologist.Heir, Prince of Cambridge
If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.
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