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  • Lupe wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure that's an adequate enough study to come to that conclusion.

    So you're saying that you wouldn't expect JV's efficiency to drop significantly if he went from 21% usage to 35%? You do realize if he maintained anything near his current efficiency at Cousins' usage he would be effectively on par with Curry and Durant as an offensive weapon.
    Again, yes, it would. There was a study done by ESPN a while back showing the cliff effect, and it's a pretty safe bet that JV's cliff would come before 35%. Cousins is the rare player whose cliff appears to be above that point. But having a high cliff only holds value if you push your usage up as high as you can - it's the same value DeRozan has. Having a high usage limit does not mean you are as valuable a player on lower usage - most often it means a decrease in value, even if you get nominally more efficient (there is no evidence to suggest you would get significantly more efficient with a drop in usage if you are below your limit to start with).
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • DanH wrote: View Post
      That's where we differ in our evaluations. I think the risk is we get a LOT worse. And the upside is we get somewhat better, with a chance at being contenders, but no better a chance than if we were to target a big upgrade at PF instead at a lower cost.
      Welp I guess it's agree to disagree then, I don't concur with that assessment.

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      • DanH wrote: View Post
        Cousins' efficiency (TS%) in seasons where he posted USG rates between 27-29% (his first three seasons): 48.4%, 49.9%, 52.4%. Yes, he was younger then, but it's literally the only evidence we have. And some players have pretty flat usage impacts on their efficency - for the most part usage kills efficiency in a specific way: as a cliff. A player tends to have roughly the same efficiency regardless of usage until they hit their personal usage limit and it drops off suddenly. The point is not that a higher usage would increase efficiency - it's that a lower usage does not always increase efficiency.

        Worst case we are still one of the top teams in the East? How is that the worst case? Worst case is the locker room falls apart, the fit is terrible (like when we last had three high usage guys in the starting lineup with Gay, DeRozan and Lowry and were on the verge of blowing it all up), the team starts losing, Lowry walks in the summer, and we are rebuilding all of a sudden except without picks because we traded several to the Kings to get Cousins, who is once again a malcontent what with the poor fit and many losses.

        I'm not saying that it's likely, but let's be realistic, there are far worse cases than "still one of the top teams."
        I'm thinking that ORTG might be the preferred metric to judge Cousins efficiency than TS% because it also takes into account assists (which he is pretty good at for a center) and turnovers (which he is very bad at). These are 2 areas where he really impacts his team. League average ORTG is 105 by definition. So if you're under 105, you are hurting your team.

        Cousins career ORTG is 102, which is bad. ORTG by season is: 94, 102, 102, 107, 104, 103. An ORTG of > 110 at high usage is almost undeniably a star and Boogie barely even got close just once.

        So basically Cousins has been hurting his team slightly, except 1 season where he had 107 ORTG. The discrepancy in TS% vs. ORTG is probably due to the fact that Boogie has been top 10 in turnovers 4 times in his career. It starts to make sense why the Kings can't get over the hump on winning. 1/3rd of their offensive possessions (i.e Cousins') are losing efficency possessions.
        Last edited by golden; Wed Oct 19th, 2016, 06:09 PM.

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        • Cousins vs Lamarcus Aldridge? who would you want and why?

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          • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post
            Cousins vs Lamarcus Aldridge? who would you want and why?
            cousins. would have been aldridge a couple weeks ago but if the kawhi jealousy is legit, he is a bad teammate. it is basically the same as portland. i really think cousins just wants to win and on a vet team like ours he could be very good.

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            • DanH wrote: View Post
              That's where we differ in our evaluations. I think the risk is we get a LOT worse. And the upside is we get somewhat better, with a chance at being contenders, but no better a chance than if we were to target a big upgrade at PF instead at a lower cost.
              I love JV as much as anybody but I think there's a resource issue at play here. I don't think JV will ever be used to his full capacity as long as the senior leadership is Casey/Lowry/DD. I do think Cousins would change that dynamic significantly enough so as to alter the fabric of our team.

              If you aren't going to use JV to his max potential then that resource is being underutilized. So you deal him and get fuller value with Cousins.

              As for a big upgrade at PF, whether or not they would change the fabric of the team depends on who you can get. But Cousins you can be sure will shake things up.

              The other nice thing about Cousins is he and DeMar are close in age. And having more star pieces has a domino effect on adding more help. A Kyle-DeMar-Boogie big three brings ring chasers. Not so with JV.
              It's the Spicy Show! Time to cook.

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              • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                I love JV as much as anybody but I think there's a resource issue at play here. I don't think JV will ever be used to his full capacity as long as the senior leadership is Casey/Lowry/DD. I do think Cousins would change that dynamic significantly enough so as to alter the fabric of our team.

                If you aren't going to use JV to his max potential then that resource is being underutilized. So you deal him and get fuller value with Cousins.

                As for a big upgrade at PF, whether or not they would change the fabric of the team depends on who you can get. But Cousins you can be sure will shake things up.

                The other nice thing about Cousins is he and DeMar are close in age. And having more star pieces has a domino effect on adding more help. A Kyle-DeMar-Boogie big three brings ring chasers. Not so with JV.
                Can't change the system for cousins or you will end up with the same problem as Sacramento. Need to show him that winning is what matters and hope he can fit in. I think he could.

                This is all moot though, they are jettisoning gay and hoping lightning in a bottle will save them with cousins.

                What if jv is what he is? What if he is being utilized to his utmost potential? He is a fantastic offensive rebounder, so he is in a position to get them. He is a fantastic, for his size, free throw shooter and is positioned where they happen most often. His weaknesses have been putting the ball on the floor and he doesn't get that opportunity often so the other team doesn't plan for many double teams being needed when he does get a post up.

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                • Miekenstien wrote: View Post
                  Can't change the system for cousins or you will end up with the same problem as Sacramento. Need to show him that winning is what matters and hope he can fit in. I think he could.

                  This is all moot though, they are jettisoning gay and hoping lightning in a bottle will save them with cousins.

                  What if jv is what he is? What if he is being utilized to his utmost potential? He is a fantastic offensive rebounder, so he is in a position to get them. He is a fantastic, for his size, free throw shooter and is positioned where they happen most often. His weaknesses have been putting the ball on the floor and he doesn't get that opportunity often so the other team doesn't plan for many double teams being needed when he does get a post up.
                  I kind of agree with you. While I don't think we're 100% maximizing JV (but you could probably say that for any player) I don't think we're suppressing some offensive juggernaut here. The argument is that because he's so efficient in a smaller role that if he had it expanded he could still maintain high efficiency while also having high production. But the counter would be that maybe the nature of his role is why he's able to be so efficient in the first place, and making him the focal point could have adverse effects.

                  That being said it's not unprecedented for a superstar/star talent to be somewhat masked by playing behind players with larger roles than him, some examples being Harden in OKC and Paul George when Danny Granger was still the man in Indiana. I'm not sure that's the case for JV though, and imo he certainly is nowhere near as good as Cousins. It seems to be an ok suggestion here on a Raptors board, but if you pitched that in any other circles it would probably be laughed at. Now you can say that's because most people don't watch the Raptors play that much, which is true to an extent but even some of the more knowledgeable and researched guys out there like Lowe would likely not agree with that.

                  I think JV's peak offensively is somewhere around Brook Lopez or Marc Gasol.
                  Last edited by Lupe; Thu Oct 20th, 2016, 09:36 AM.

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                  • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                    I love JV as much as anybody but I think there's a resource issue at play here. I don't think JV will ever be used to his full capacity as long as the senior leadership is Casey/Lowry/DD. I do think Cousins would change that dynamic significantly enough so as to alter the fabric of our team.

                    If you aren't going to use JV to his max potential then that resource is being underutilized. So you deal him and get fuller value with Cousins.

                    As for a big upgrade at PF, whether or not they would change the fabric of the team depends on who you can get. But Cousins you can be sure will shake things up.

                    The other nice thing about Cousins is he and DeMar are close in age. And having more star pieces has a domino effect on adding more help. A Kyle-DeMar-Boogie big three brings ring chasers. Not so with JV.
                    This is probably one of the better pro-Cousins arguments.

                    No doubt there is a huge lack of respect issue from Lowry/DD/Casey towards JV. Cousins would demand that respect, if not through his play, then with his intimidating & volatile personality. Would Cousins coming in be enough to force Lowry/Casey to play a more in-out style, considering that Cousins is also a very good passer?

                    However, the downside chemistry risk is huge with a higher possibility of ending up like the Lowry/DD/Gay shit-show where the parts didn't fit. It would be only a matter of time before Lowry and Cousins want to kill each other. I mean, even a textbook role player like DeMarre Carroll is having a really hard time fitting in with Lowry and DD, because the Raps offense is designed to read and react off of their unpredictable drives. Raptor bigs job is to rebound Lowry/DD misses or finish high lobs, and shooters need to constantly position themselves for awkward Lowry/DD bailout passes, which messes up their shooting rhythm even if they are wide open. Playing with Lowry and DD is not easy, and Cousins has the same reputation, if not worse. Put 3 of those type of guys together and .....

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                    • TrueTorontoFan wrote: View Post
                      Cousins vs Lamarcus Aldridge? who would you want and why?
                      I would prefer Cousins due to his talent, but I think if Spurs really wouldn't mind trading LA as rumoured, it would be more likely for Raptors to be able to get LA. Especially since they wanted JV before

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                      • Triplethreat89 wrote: View Post
                        I would prefer Cousins due to his talent, but I think if Spurs really wouldn't mind trading LA as rumoured, it would be more likely for Raptors to be able to get LA. Especially since they wanted JV before
                        We can't afford to trade JV for Aldridge. Leaves us without any sort of reliable option at center, if we still had Biz we might be ok but probably not. Not to mention that it's a completely all-in move on a player that's getting up there in age.

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                        • Lupe wrote: View Post
                          We can't afford to trade JV for Aldridge. Leaves us without any sort of reliable option at center, if we still had Biz we might be ok but probably not. Not to mention that it's a completely all-in move on a player that's getting up there in age.
                          Not to mention that it would be preferable (in my opinion) to play Aldridge *with* JV, but we almost certainly don't have enough non-JV assets that the Spurs would want. Sneaking a quick peek at the ESPN Trade Machine suggests that the Spurs would only have one additional roster spot which would mean that the trade would need to be centered around either PPat and TRoss, or Carroll and another player.

                          I personally don't foresee Aldridge having the right combination of talents to mesh well with any of our forwards except Poeltl, who is very much a work in progress.

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                          • Lupe wrote: View Post
                            We can't afford to trade JV for Aldridge. Leaves us without any sort of reliable option at center, if we still had Biz we might be ok but probably not. Not to mention that it's a completely all-in move on a player that's getting up there in age.
                            Sully played most of his minutes at C last year. They also have Poeltl who they are high on about his future. JV/2pat + picks is what I would offer. I still prefer Boogie though. LA lead the league in made FGs two years. The guy can really play.

                            Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                            Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Sun Oct 23rd, 2016, 11:41 AM.
                            @Chr1st1anL

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                            • Aldridge has had chemistry issues with Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard, two of the easiest guys in the league to get along with.

                              I don't want any piece of that, especially if it costs JV.
                              twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                              • Barolt wrote: View Post
                                Aldridge has had chemistry issues with Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard, two of the easiest guys in the league to get along with.

                                I don't want any piece of that, especially if it costs JV.
                                Was just about to point this out. He doesn't just want to win. He wants to be the undisputed star that takes the most FGA's. That wasn't going to happen in Portland given Lillard's rise, and it definitely wasn't happening in San Antonio. He likes to isolate, and though he's very, very good at it, I really don't see how that would play out in Toronto given the current dynamic with the guard-oriented offense.

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