Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[lewro]

I think you have to include JV as a possible trade target (albeit, probably the least likely). Once you know the market for the potential assets to be traded, weigh that against the draft and projected mle market. I imagine it will be difficult to find a 3&d wing in the mle market. Probably easier to replace a big body, rebounder. I might rather get swanigan with a 2nd Rd pick for example. Not that keen on sending our 1st with Carroll; we need all the talent we can get and preferably modern NBA talent.

[psrs1]

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

Re-sign Lowry to a big but sub-max deal (roughly 5/175M, maybe lower if Lowry is feeling generous).
Re-sign Ibaka to a 5/100-120M deal.
Re-sign Tucker to a 3/30M deal.
Let Pat walk.
Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back.
Spend some cash on mid-late 2nd rounders to draft a couple depth pieces. Spend part or all of the MLE (depending on exact amounts of the contracts above and other salary commitments) on a vet wing depth piece.

Roster ends up like this:

Lowry-Wright-VanVleet
DeRozan-Powell-2nd rounder
Tucker-MLE-Bruno
Ibaka-Siakam-2nd rounder
Valanciunas-Poeltl

That dodges the tax and keeps most of the core together. And keeps the potential for those flexible small lineups with Ibaka at C and Tucker at PF, probably with bench backcourts of KL-Wright-Powell and Wright-DD-Powell, or the closing unit of Lowry-DD-Powell, while also maintaining the team's ability to play big and match up in that direction.

Thanks for your analysis. Our bench will be thinner hopefully NP will be in contention for 6th man of year contention.

[DanH]

DanH how do you MOST LIKELY see roster and cap playing out come first week of July? i.e. What will be our roster for next year within the confines of the cap ?

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

Re-sign Lowry to a big but sub-max deal (roughly 5/175M, maybe lower if Lowry is feeling generous).
Re-sign Ibaka to a 5/100-120M deal.
Re-sign Tucker to a 3/30M deal.
Let Pat walk.
Trade Joseph and Carroll into cap space with our 2017 pick and BeBe outgoing as asset cost. Something small and roughly valueless coming back.
Spend some cash on mid-late 2nd rounders to draft a couple depth pieces. Spend part or all of the MLE (depending on exact amounts of the contracts above and other salary commitments) on a vet wing depth piece.

Roster ends up like this:

Lowry-Wright-VanVleet
DeRozan-Powell-2nd rounder
Tucker-MLE-Bruno
Ibaka-Siakam-2nd rounder
Valanciunas-Poeltl

That dodges the tax and keeps most of the core together. And keeps the potential for those flexible small lineups with Ibaka at C and Tucker at PF, probably with bench backcourts of KL-Wright-Powell and Wright-DD-Powell, or the closing unit of Lowry-DD-Powell, while also maintaining the team's ability to play big and match up in that direction.

[psrs1]

DanH how do you MOST LIKELY see roster and cap playing out come first week of July? i.e. What will be our roster for next year within the confines of the cap ?

[DanH]

How would this work (as far as cap space and team effectiveness)?:

Out of the Free Agents, retain Lowry & Ibaka, let Tucker and Patterson go. Trade JV, Joseph and Carroll (individually or as packages) for future picks or sophomores on the low end of the salary range. Sign JJ Redick and Danilo Gallinari (or Joe Ingles). Draft Semi Ojeleye. It would look like this:

PG: Lowry/Fred/Wright
SG: Derozan/Redick/Powell
SF: Gallinari (or Ingles)/Ojeleye
PF: Ibaka/Siakam/Bruno
C: Poeltl/Bebe

Letting those three go clears up about 35M in cap room. Ibaka and Lowry's cap holds take up about 35M in cap room. So they are back at the 20M in cap room they can use on free agents. No way they get two decent players with that - maybe one Redick or Gallo.

I also think you are being incredibly optimistic about the return on a salary dump trade. Generally the prospects/picks go the same direction as the salary - ie we'd lose our pick or some rookie scale guys to be able to be free of JV or Carroll (maybe not CoJo, he's cheap and fits most places). Maybe you can pull off dumping one of them with one of our prospects plus whatever return we can manage from moving CoJo, but even then you are still looking at basically no cap room.

The cap situation this summer is such that, unless you are moving on from all (or at least the best) of our free agents, improving via free agency is not really in the cards. Better to use the ability to spend over the cap, retain your guys, and maybe try to move them for the upgrades you want later.

[inthepaint]

How would this work (as far as cap space and team effectiveness)?:

Out of the Free Agents, retain Lowry & Ibaka, let Tucker and Patterson go. Trade JV, Joseph and Carroll (individually or as packages) for future picks or sophomores on the low end of the salary range. Sign JJ Redick and Danilo Gallinari (or Joe Ingles). Draft Semi Ojeleye. It would look like this:

PG: Lowry/Fred/Wright
SG: Derozan/Redick/Powell
SF: Gallinari (or Ingles)/Ojeleye
PF: Ibaka/Siakam/Bruno
C: Poeltl/Bebe

[DanH]

We're currently about 40 mill from the tax line, so 55 mill gives you Lowry at 35 and Ibaka at 20. Gotta shed salary to make room otherwise.

(And I don't think this number accounts for the small additions we'd make to take the roster to 15 - the 16th/17th count)

Roster only needs to get to 14. And the two-way contracts don't count against the cap/tax, as far as I can tell, but as you note do not count against the roster size either.

[DanH]

Oops.

Perhaps those contracts are more manageable if they are backloaded as the cap presumably rises? Maybe Lowry can come in closer to demar's contract at $28m and get raises closer to $35m by the final yr? Same with ibaka at $20m and rising toward $25m.
Then when theyre washed up and overpaid we flip them to the Nets for a decade of 1st Rd picks.

Backloading makes sense if they are going all in on this core for the next couple years with a plan to tear down after that. It's been my assumption.

[lewro]

Oops.

Perhaps those contracts are more manageable if they are backloaded as the cap presumably rises? Maybe Lowry can come in closer to demar's contract at $28m and get raises closer to $35m by the final yr? Same with ibaka at $20m and rising toward $25m.
Then when theyre washed up and overpaid we flip them to the Nets for a decade of 1st Rd picks.

[lewro]

We're currently about 40 mill from the tax line, so 55 mill gives you Lowry at 35 and Ibaka at 20. Gotta shed salary to make room otherwise.

(And I don't think this number accounts for the small additions we'd make to take the roster to 15 - the 16th/17th count)

I'd probably bump Ibaka up $2m-$5m and Lowry down $2-7m. Not saying that what they will get, just saying that's what they're worth to me. More importantly, perhaps those contracts a

[SkywalkerAC]

wow. 120m in tax? crazy.

Ok so, with 15M into tax territory, can we get everyone back, with Lowry at $40m, Ibaka at $20, tucker where - 8=10?

We're currently about 40 mill from the tax line, so 55 mill gives you Lowry at 35 and Ibaka at 20. Gotta shed salary to make room otherwise.

(And I don't think this number accounts for the small additions we'd make to take the roster to 15 - the 16th/17th count)

[Rand]

I expect they have given him the green light for the tax. But there's paying tax, and there's setting records for how much tax you are paying, and if he brings everyone back, it will be the latter. Even if they are open to paying tax (and I suspect ownership is but Masai probably isn't), odds are it's more along the lines of going 15M or so into the tax, not 40M into the tax (as the tax bills would be roughly 20-25M in the former, and nearly 120M in the latter).

wow. 120m in tax? crazy.

Ok so, with 15M into tax territory, can we get everyone back, with Lowry at $40m, Ibaka at $20, tucker where - 8=10?

[DanH]

SAY, Masai is sticking with this roster, and as some interpreted from his comments after the sweep, that he's going to sign and bring everyone back, Raps will be in deep cap tax situation. What are the probabilities that MLSE has given Masai the green light to go into tax?

I expect they have given him the green light for the tax. But there's paying tax, and there's setting records for how much tax you are paying, and if he brings everyone back, it will be the latter. Even if they are open to paying tax (and I suspect ownership is but Masai probably isn't), odds are it's more along the lines of going 15M or so into the tax, not 40M into the tax (as the tax bills would be roughly 20-25M in the former, and nearly 120M in the latter).

[Rand]

SAY, Masai is sticking with this roster, and as some interpreted from his comments after the sweep, that he's going to sign and bring everyone back, Raps will be in deep cap tax situation. What are the probabilities that MLSE has given Masai the green light to go into tax?

[Heatdreamer]

Hey look at that, actually got an answer to this. He's not eligible (having been traded after his rookie scale deal). So, back to plan A, re-signing him in FA to a 4 or 5 year deal.

Would a trade for Russell + Deng for Joseph + JV+ Carroll+ Sikiam+ 1st Round pick in 2018,
Joseph backs up Lakers PG pick in 2017 (Ball, Smith) JV is a better center than Mozgov, who can be traded and Carroll backs up Ingram. Sikiam backup for Randle.