Everything 2024 Draft

[Primer]

Yea he was projected to be a top 5 or 6 pick. But experts claimed there was a top 4 and then a talent gap. Scottie should have been the number 1 pick. And they all missed that. that's my point on the draft, the're is going to be Scottie in there. But lack of a Zion or wemby is why the call it a bad class

Not all experts said there was a top 4 and then a drop off, that's some revisionist history. If they did a redraft today I'm not sure Scottie goes number 1. I think he could easily go 3rd after Covington and Mobley.

The 2021 draft is a great example of analysts predicting the best players pretty damn well. The top 8 are all really good players and would go top 9 if we did a redraft today, Sengun is the only guy who would have to move up.

Again I'm not sure what the hell you guys are expecting. If the draft analysts accurately pick the 8 best players from a draft as the top 8 that's crazy good.

[golden]

Using the last Ringer mock for the player, Silver should announce picks like this :

With the 19th pick in the 2024 NBA draft the Toronto Raptors select 5% chance of being a star, 30% chance of being a starter, 40% chance of being a bench piece and 25% chance of being a bust Isaiah Collier from the University of Southern California.

lol. This just helps my argument. If only 5% of draftees have a chance at being stars... those guys should stick out like sore thumbs to so-called draft experts, no? It should be pretty easy to spot a star from a bust, for the trained eye, right?

Yet, 5 MVPs and countless star & superstar "outliers" slipped through the cracks. And continue to do so... year-after-year.

[MixxAOR]

NBA scouts: Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the matrix. You are the eventuality of an anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.

As you are undoubtedly gathering, the anomaly’s systemic, creating fluctuations in even the most simplistic equations.

[WJF]

Not all experts said there was a top 4 and then a drop off, that's some revisionist history. If they did a redraft today I'm not sure Scottie goes number 1. I think he could easily go 3rd after Covington and Mobley.

The 2021 draft is a great example of analysts predicting the best players pretty damn well. The top 8 are all really good players and would go top 9 if we did a redraft today, Sengun is the only guy who would have to move up.

Again I'm not sure what the hell you guys are expecting. If the draft analysts accurately pick the 8 best players from a draft as the top 8 that's crazy good.

I would argue that Jalen Johnson would be a guy putting pressure on the top 8 as well as Herb Jones and Trey Murphy.

[3inthekeon]

lol. This just helps my argument. If only 5% of draftees have a chance at being stars... those guys should stick out like sore thumbs to so-called draft experts, no? It should be pretty easy to spot a star from a bust, for the trained eye, right?

Yet, 5 MVPs and countless star & superstar "outliers" slipped through the cracks. And continue to do so... year-after-year.

No. Progress isn't linear. What happens after a player is drafted has a ton of variables.

[golden]

No. Progress isn't linear. What happens after a player is drafted has a ton of variables.

Too many variables was, and is, my original point. Which makes these mock predictions mostly useless. We are in agreement. I forgot what we were actually debating.

[GLF]

Not really. Just hard to imagine teams will come out of these playoffs with the idea that Bruce Brown is the sort of guy you want on your team, not be willing to trade any value for him immediately after those playoffs (when it's easier to make deals work with cap room, etc), and then suddenly be willing to give up a lot more to get only a couple months of his services at the deadline instead of a whole season's worth.

If they keep their pick, want to keep Gary, and want to find a guy with the MLE, keeping that option on the books is going to cause tax issues. If they don't do those things, not a big deal to keep him.

Yea that makes sense. Thanks Dan

[Primer]

Too many variables was, and is, my original point. Which makes these mock predictions mostly useless. We are in agreement. I forgot what we were actually debating.

Your whole argument is they can't predict it perfectly therefore their predictions are useless. That is obviously very dumb on its face. They are far more right than they are wrong.

Here is some more proof since you insist on being dense.

All NBA Teams 2023 and where they were drafted.

1st team
Giannis, 1st round 15th
Luka, 1st round 3rd
Embiid, 1st round 3rd
SGA, 1st round 11th
Tatum, 1st round 3rd

2nd team,
Brown, 1st round 3rd
Butler, 1st round 30th
Curry, 1st round 7th
Jokic, 2nd round 41st
Mitchell, 1st round 13th

3rd team
Fox, 1st round 5th
Lebron, 1st round 1st
Lillard, 1st round 6th
Randle, 1st round 7th
Sabonis, 1st round 11th

So out of 15 All NBA selections
14 selected in the 1st round
5 selected top 3
11 selected top 11
13 selected top 15
1 was from the 2nd round

Seems like the draft analysts know exactly what they're doing and are pretty damn accurate.

[bertarapsfan]

Not all experts said there was a top 4 and then a drop off, that's some revisionist history. If they did a redraft today I'm not sure Scottie goes number 1. I think he could easily go 3rd after Covington and Mobley.

The 2021 draft is a great example of analysts predicting the best players pretty damn well. The top 8 are all really good players and would go top 9 if we did a redraft today, Sengun is the only guy who would have to move up.

Again I'm not sure what the hell you guys are expecting. If the draft analysts accurately pick the 8 best players from a draft as the top 8 that's crazy good.

I think your combining two arguments here. I'm not say 1st rounders and 2nd rounders have the same likelihood planning out. I'm saying that once you get outside of generational clear cut number 1 picks any dude in the top 10-15 Can end up being the best player of a class.
Any why I think not caring about a 6th pick is silly because media is saying "weak class" there is going to be all star and perhaps all NBA guys in this year's draft. And we could get them at 6.

[Primer]

I think your combining two arguments here. I'm not say 1st rounders and 2nd rounders have the same likelihood planning out. I'm saying that once you get outside of generational clear cut number 1 picks any dude in the top 10-15 Can end up being the best player of a class.
Any why I think not caring about a 6th pick is silly because media is saying "weak class" there is going to be all star and perhaps all NBA guys in this year's draft. And we could get them at 6.

Sure, we could, but the odds are drastically lower this year than almost any other year.

Like if I walk into a casino, I could play the slots and win big, but slots have the worst odds in the entire casino and my chances would be a lot better playing blackjack. This years draft is like playing the slot machine. Far less likely to win, and far less likely to win big, but there is always a chance, and if we keep the pick and don't trade it I'll be holding my lucky horseshoe in one hand and lucky rabbits foot in the other with my four leaf clover in my pocket, because the odds will not be on our side to get that game changing player.

[golden]

Your whole argument is they can't predict it perfectly therefore their predictions are useless. That is obviously very dumb on its face. They are far more right than they are wrong.

Here is some more proof since you insist on being dense.

All NBA Teams 2023 and where they were drafted.

1st team
Giannis, 1st round 15th
Luka, 1st round 3rd
Embiid, 1st round 3rd
SGA, 1st round 11th
Tatum, 1st round 3rd

2nd team,
Brown, 1st round 3rd
Butler, 1st round 30th
Curry, 1st round 7th
Jokic, 2nd round 41st
Mitchell, 1st round 13th

3rd team
Fox, 1st round 5th
Lebron, 1st round 1st
Lillard, 1st round 6th
Randle, 1st round 7th
Sabonis, 1st round 11th

So out of 15 All NBA selections
14 selected in the 1st round
5 selected top 3
11 selected top 11
13 selected top 15
1 was from the 2nd round

Seems like the draft analysts know exactly what they're doing and are pretty damn accurate.

lol. You are the master at making up your own strawmen that nobody says. And you just added a cherry pick. I gave a pretty big list of stars and HoFs that were picked 9th and much, much, much lower. If the experts can’t even project future superstars, let alone icons, as top 10 in their draft class… that’s QED. Not sure why you keep bringing up my criteria as being perfect. Top 10 would already be an extremely low bar.

Sam Hinkie actually admitted that front offices get it wrong most of the time, so his strategy was to have, in his words, “a bushel of picks”. At least he was honest and realistic about the draft.

[Primer]

lol. You are the master at making up your own strawmen that nobody says. And you just added a cherry pick. I gave a pretty big list of stars and HoFs that were picked 9th and much, much, much lower. If the experts can’t even project future superstars, let alone icons, as top 10 in their draft class… that’s QED. Not sure why you keep bringing up my criteria as being perfect. Top 10 would already be an extremely low bar.

Sam Hinkie actually admitted that front offices get it wrong most of the time, so his strategy was to have, in his words, “a bushel of picks”. At least he was honest and realistic about the draft.

How is the entire 15 man all nba roster a cherry pick?

That's the most objective list of best players each year.

All star would be a cherry pick because of fan voting.

Pick any year you want and do the same analysis of an All NBA team. I'd love to see the year full of draft misses because I know it doesn't exist.

[golden]

How is the entire 15 man all nba roster a cherry pick?

That's the most objective list of best players each year.

All star would be a cherry pick because of fan voting.

Pick any year you want and do the same analysis of an All NBA team. I'd love to see the year full of draft misses because I know it doesn't exist.

I mean I gave you a good list of MVPs, all-stars and HoFs. If you want to trivialize missing out on those guys as an acceptable failure rate by the experts, then we have way different standards for success.

[Primer]

I mean I gave you a good list of MVPs, all-stars and HoFs. If you want to trivialize missing out on those guys as an acceptable failure rate by the experts, then we have way different standards for success.

If the 15 best players every year (All NBA) are almost all early 1st round picks that shows draft evaluators are doing a really good job.

[golden]

If the 15 best players every year (All NBA) are almost all early 1st round picks that shows draft evaluators are doing a really good job.

Only 5/15 of those guys you listed were selected top 5. Historically that’s where the stars come from and it drops off rapidly from there. So that’s not a great success rate even for that cherry pick year. And one of those guys was Lebron, who should be retired.