Everything 2024 Draft

[TomAmnot]

If we don't keep our pick, what does it become already?

[3inthekeon]

If we don't keep our pick, what does it become already?

It becomes the Spurs pick, if that's what you're asking.

[Primer]

The 2013 draft was one of the worst ever and it still produced another generational talent in Giannis and 3X DPOY Gobert. There are good players to be found in every draft, especially role players. The so-called experts always miss out on them.

Well it is more fun to assume all the experts are wrong, logic be damned. When it turns out they were right no one will remember this post.

[TomAmnot]

It becomes the Spurs pick, if that's what you're asking.

Thank you but I meant, we completely lose it? Ok I think I get it. It's if we keep it, next year the Spurs get something?

[A.I]

Well it is more fun to assume all the experts are wrong, logic be damned. When it turns out they were right no one will remember this post.

Except with the draft, they're usually more wrong than right. They'll be right in certain aspects, but there are always players that end up being a steal/surprise every draft.

[A.I]

Thank you but I meant, we completely lose it? Ok I think I get it. It's if we keep it, next year the Spurs get something?

Its the same thing next year if we keep the pick this year. Next year, if we don't get a top 6 pick, Spurs get the pick.

[The Great One]

The 2013 draft was one of the worst ever and it still produced another generational talent in Giannis and 3X DPOY Gobert. There are good players to be found in every draft, especially role players. The so-called experts always miss out on them.

I think Risacher has a chance to become a star. Holland as well. All he need is a consistent jump shot.

[LJ2]

I think Risacher has a chance to become a star. Holland as well. All he need is a consistent jump shot.

Risacher's game reminds be a bit of Brandon Miller.

[golden]

Well it is more fun to assume all the experts are wrong, logic be damned. When it turns out they were right no one will remember this post.

Logic would dictate that you follow the numbers. And the experts are wrong, year after year. And not just wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

Trusting the draft experts is almost identical to having blind faith in meteorologists decades ago - before the simulation models, computing and sensors got a lot better.

Yes, those weather professionals back then were the absolute best in the world at what they did. But it was still a coin toss if they could predict the weather the next day... let alone a few days later in the week.

[LJ2]

Crap, the two guys I've been talking about the most who weren't on FR draft boards a week ago have arrived on the Ringers most recent mock draft. Tidjane Salaun (13) and Tristan Da Silva (15). I'd take Salaun in the top 5 if we keep our pick. He'll take a while to develop, but he looks like he has a higher ceiling that most in this draft.

I'm also seeing some of the Giannis comparisons which Salaun has received.

[Primer]

Logic would dictate that you follow the numbers. And the experts are wrong, year after year. And not just wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

Trusting the draft experts is almost identical to having blind faith in meteorologists decades ago - before the simulation models, computing and sensors got a lot better.

Yes, those weather professionals back then were the absolute best in the world at what they did. But it was still a coin toss if they could predict the weather the next day... let alone a few days later in the week.

Your issue is you think draft analysts should get 100% of player outcomes correct or they're useless.

Their job isn't to get every single player projection correct, that is impossible.

So when you ascribe an impossible outcome to them then yes they will fail.

If you instead logically looked at what their job is, which is to provide directional analysis on what kind of players these guys will end up being, they are actually fairly accurate, much more than chance or the average basketball fan. Ignore their analysis at your own peril, they are much more correct than you ever will be.

As a fun anecdote, draft analysts said the 2006 draft was a terrible draft with very little high end talent, they were incredibly right!

[planetmars]

There is a development process for any player you draft. That requires training, work ethic, mental growth, physical growth, etc. There could be a guy that ends up becoming a top 10 player in the league. But it may require being drafted by the right organization too.

So predicting how well a draft is going to be before the players even get into the NBA is pretty dumb IMO.

[Primer]

There is a development process for any player you draft. That requires training, work ethic, mental growth, physical growth, etc. There could be a guy that ends up becoming a top 10 player in the league. But it may require being drafted by the right organization too.

So predicting how well a draft is going to be before the players even get into the NBA is pretty dumb IMO.

It's not dumb though, you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

We can't 100% predict player outcomes so having experts make their best predications is dumb. We shouldn't even bother analyzing these guys before the draft. That's your take.

[3inthekeon]

Thank you but I meant, we completely lose it? Ok I think I get it. It's if we keep it, next year the Spurs get something?

Protected 1-6 in 2024, 1-6 in 2025 and 1-6 in 2026; if Toronto has not conveyed a 1st round pick to San Antonio by 2026, then Toronto will instead convey its 2026 2nd round pick and 2027 2nd round pick to San Antonio [San Antonio-Toronto, 2/9/2023]

[Kagemusha]

There is a development process for any player you draft. That requires training, work ethic, mental growth, physical growth, etc. There could be a guy that ends up becoming a top 10 player in the league. But it may require being drafted by the right organization too.

So predicting how well a draft is going to be before the players even get into the NBA is pretty dumb IMO.

Coaching and team direction.
Jason Kidd empowered GIannis and the Bucks fully built the team around him.
If he were drafted by another team, he's probably just another Blake Griffin by now.