Everything Derozan

[iblastoff]

Everything Demar Derozan

Read the context, please. He drew 7 FTAs going to the rack in the first, then 6 the rest of the game when he stopped driving. The clear conclusion there is that he was more successful when he was going to the rack than when he's shooting the midrange, which even though it was working for him against Miami, is not a good shot for DeMar.

first of all, you either didnt watch the game or you're just blatantly bullshitting.

1st quarter FTs:
1st free throw from derozan came from a 3 sec violation by the heat. not a drive.

next 2 free throws was from winslow biting on a pump fake. not even close to a drive.

the only set of free throws by derozan that could be considered 'going to the rack' was his next set where he got fouled by bosh.

then at the end, derozan shot his final FT's of the 1st Q because miami were over the limit and gerald green fouled him like 30 feet from the basket.

read the context? how about you not making shit up instead.

[Jrice9]

I'm unsure of the significance of those exact bench marks, also, WS/48 is a better stat generally speaking than WS.

Kevin Love has an Ortg of 112, but is somehow disqualified because his usage rate is only 24.2%? He's got a higher PER, TS%, BPM, VORP than DeMar, but that .8% usage disqualifies him?

I'm really curious, I just don't understand how those 25% usage, 110 ORtg and 30MPG numbers aren't just arbitrary milestones.

Alot of points here:

1, WS/48 is not necessarily better than WS. Yes it accounts for minutes and games played and thats helpeful when someone is playing more or someone has an injury. However, there is an obvious flip side to that as well. Most notably, that durability and playing longer stretches on the court is valuable. There are diminishing returns for many guys in increased games/minutes. Remember how Bebe was leading the NBA (or close to it in WS/48), I have my doubts that Bebe would be one of the best 2 centers in the NBA if he had to play a real starters burden. There are also issues of sample size with WS/48 as well.


2, Arbitrary endpoints can be problematic but they exist for a reason. Yes 25% vs 24.2% is not that different but if we lower the threshold to 24% then why not 23% or 22% or 20%. But there is a distinction in a player who uses 20% of possessions and one who uses 25%. There role in the offense is fundamentally different.

Still you might point out other players close to the cut offs to be intellectually honest when talking about a discussion.

3, These three arbritary endpoints seem pretty decent to me. 30MPG shows that you are a key player (or starter) on a team (other than the Spurs or Warriors), 25% usage rating shows you are a well above average offensive usage player, 110 ORTG shows you are a well above average offensive player in the possessions you use.

So Tony Parker, who has a WS/48 of .228, Ortg of 118 and Drtg of 98, TS% of .606 isn't elite because he only has 21% USG? Seriously?

Tony Parker isn't an elite volume scorer no. I'm not sure that Parker (who at this point is like the what, 4th best player on San Antonio) could handle a key offensive load post 30 on a good team.

[golden]

So Tony Parker, who has a WS/48 of .228, Ortg of 118 and Drtg of 98, TS% of .606 isn't elite because he only has 21% USG? Seriously?

Yep. Parker's efficiency is elite, but his overall production isn't. You need both to be considered an elite offensive player. 21% USG is only 1% above an average player (20%), by definition, so Parker is carrying his fair share of offense really well, but that's it.

Parker is not even the offensive focal point of his team anymore. He's third in USG behind Kawhi & LMA, and not that far ahead of Timmy. And then there's Manu at 25%. Parker is not elite anymore.

edit: ... and what Mindlessness said. Just saw that. lol.

[Jrice9]

Solid post.

Only thing I really disagree with is the implied notion that changing the team means "staggering around taking shots at lotto picks". I believe that this team can make the playoffs, become a stronger team, and move on from the current core.

I also think there is discord because some fans simply want to make the playoffs for the excitement while others, want to be a team that is annually competitive in the playoffs that has a chance to win a title. Hard to agree on way forward when you aren't heading to the same place.

I appreciate it. I think we sometimes to understand people have different perspectives than we do and that is actually the basis of an argument that can't actually be resolved.

I think your right, clearly there are moves (Both big and small) that can improve a team. Trading George Hill for Leonard was a game changer for San Antonio. But I do think there is a tendency in fans to advocate for something that is just new and they think has a chance to be special but will likely be the same or worse than the status quo (the DeMar trade proposals listed in some of these pages are good examples).

I don't think the fans simply want the playoffs, I think those fans appreciate the playoffs as at least a starting point (Especially considering what the alternative has been for almost all of Raptors history) and think that we aren't quite as fixed in place as some think. Also, I think some fans realize the overall unlikelihood of a finals appearance so they appreciate the trees as well as a forest.

To go slightly off topic, its why I loved this past Jays season (and the 2013-2014 Raptors) despite them coming up short. Its just fun sometimes ot hit the thresholds and make memories that are not simply championships.

[Axel]

Every positive about the guy always has to be flipped into a negative.

He's driving more? Well look! He drives more in our losses so it seems like him driving hurts us.
He's doing great in the pick and roll? Well look! If you filter it to include bench players, they're elite in the pick and roll too

Keep firing those veiled shots man and keep twisting those words.

Doesn't matter how many times I wrote that I wasn't blaming DD for those losses or that I was critiquing the stat not the man, some fans are going to twist the words and you might be the worst for it.

[JWash]

Keep firing those veiled shots man and keep twisting those words.

Doesn't matter how many times I wrote that I wasn't blaming DD for those losses or that I was critiquing the stat not the man, some fans are going to twist the words and you might be the worst for it.

Alright sorry man. Wasn't my intent

And btw I wasn't referring to you. Barolt is the only one who ever said that not you.

[Snooch]

Keep firing those veiled shots man and keep twisting those words.

Doesn't matter how many times I wrote that I wasn't blaming DD for those losses or that I was critiquing the stat not the man, some fans are going to twist the words and you might be the worst for it.

Thats the new way of posting from the certain few

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[Mr.Z]

Can someone actually give an example of a team letting their all-star player walk without even negotiating??

It just seems so unrealistic to me.

It really feels like a Demar hater's fantasy.

Common sense tells me that Masai will do everything in his power to re-sign Demar, even if it means trading him later.



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An example is Bosh when he left Toronto lol
And its not a fantasy of anybodies to see him walk, we just dont want to fuckin pay him 23 million... Its simple


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[OldSkoolCool]

Fear. The. Contract. Year.

Seriously though, are we going to keep ignoring that we are going to pay a lot of money for a below average defensive player who has this much controversy concerning his offensive output? Where there is smoke, there is fire

[special1]

Fear. The. Contract. Year.

Seriously though, are we going to keep ignoring that we are going to pay a lot of money for a below average defensive player who has this much controversy concerning his offensive output? Where there is smoke, there is fire

We're talking about Demar not TRoss....


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[hotfuzz]

What will be the max for him?

[Axel]

What will be the max for him?

For reference:

DeRozan's max if he signs in Toronto: 25.1M, 27.0M, 28.9M, 30.8M, 32.7M -> 144.6M over 5 years, 28.9M per year.
DeRozan's max if he signs elsewhere: 25.1M, 26.3M, 27.4M, 28.5M -> 107.4M over 4 years, 26.8M per year.
DeRozan signing a 4 year deal starting at 22M: 22.0M, 23.0M, 24.0M, 25.0M -> 93.9M over 4 years, 23.5M per year.
DeRozan signing a 4 year deal starting at 20M: 20.0M, 20.9M, 21.8M, 22.7M -> 85.4M over 4 years, 21.4M per year.
DeRozan signing a 4 year deal starting at 15M: 15.0M, 15.7M, 16.4M, 17.0M -> 64.1M over 4 years, 16.0M per year.

Can be found in the salary cap thread (stickies).

[JWash]

Anyone think the extra year of security the Raptors can offer DeMar might make it easier for us to get him for less than the max?

If you think about it, after the 4 year deal he would get from another team he'd be 31 and not likely to get another significant payday since he'd be out of his prime.

4 year deal from another team would be worth 107.4M over 4 as said by DanH. If the Raptors offer him 5/$110M isn't that a more financially secure deal?

That'd be an average cap hit of approximately 22% of the cap over the life of the deal which I don't really mind paying for DD. Contract could be a flat rate $22M every year or a deal that looks like:

2016-17: $19.1M (21% of the $89M cap)
2017-18: $20.5M (19% of the $108M cap)
2018-19: $21.9M (22% of the $100M cap)
2019-20: $23.3M (23% of the $102M cap)
2020-21: $24.7M (23% of the $107M cap)

So a deal starting at $19.1M with max increases for 5 years would be an alternative. Maybe throw in a player option so he can hit the market again if he wants and I don't see why he turns that down unless he doesn't want to be in Toronto (which doesn't appear to be the case) since he's getting more total guaranteed dollars than he can get anywhere else.

Plus this would keep is somewhat more flexible in 2017 to test the FA waters again with DD only chewing up <20% of the cap.

[Axel]

Don't think DD would be concerned about the market for him at 31.

31 on the market still makes a lot of money just maybe with a 3 or 4 year deal instead of a 5 year deal.

He may do something like you proposed but can't see the age factor being much of an incentive.

I think DD would prefer to have the 5 yr deal with ETO after 4 so he can hit free agency at 31 rather than 32, while still getting more money on the original deal.

[JWash]

Don't think DD would be concerned about the market for him at 31.

31 on the market still makes a lot of money just maybe with a 3 or 4 year deal instead of a 5 year deal.

He may do something like you proposed but can't see the age factor being much of an incentive.

I think DD would prefer to have the 5 yr deal with ETO after 4 so he can hit free agency at 31 rather than 32, while still getting more money on the original deal.

Like I said it's a combination of age and financial security. The reality is he's going to be almost 27 when he signs this contract so the deal will extend through his prime. After which it's really rare to see non-superstars get significant paydays. So the security of a 5 year deal making an average of $22M a year ($19M next year) while being paid more total than any other team can pay him may be very enticing. Especially if he wants to be in T.Dot, which appears to be the case.

Can see this being something Masai discusses with him when negotiating a deal. Raptors do have a significant advantage in being able to give him that 5th year of security which allows us to pay more total but less per year than other teams.