Everything 2024 Draft

[MixxAOR]

[planetmars]

Seems like it really likes centers. Picked a center 1st every year.

It just happened that way.. and I don't think he was wrong. Chet and Sengun have been great prospects. And obviously Wemby too.

Here was Pelton's top 10 in 2020:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...p-30-prospects

1. LaMelo Ball
2. Tyrese Haliburton
3. Anthony Edwards
4. Cole Anthony
5. Devin Vassell
6. Deni Avdija
7. Onyeka Okongwu
8. R.J. Hampton
9. Killian Hayes
10. Aaron Nesmith

First center went 7th. Wiseman who was picked 2nd was 16th on his list.

He's never been wrong with this #1. And so I could see Clingan being a pretty good choice if you have a top 4 pick or even #1.

[LJ2]

Pelton @ESPN ranks the draft based on some stat he created called WARP:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...best-prospects

1. Donovan Clingan
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Alex Sarr
4. Zach Edey
5. Zaccharie Risacher
6. Ja'Kobe Walter
7. Rob Dillingham
8. Johnny Furphy
9. Nikola Topic
10. Stephon Castle
11. Isaiah Collier
12. Jared McCain
13. Kyshawn George
14. Kyle Filipowski
15. Tidjane Salaun
16. Payton Sandfort
17. Matas Buzelis
18. Tyler Smith
19. Ron Holland
20. Devin Carter
21. Ryan Dunn
22. Carlton Carrington
23. Kam Jones
24. Baylor Scheierman
25. Alex Karaban
26. Justin Edwards
27. Cody Williams
28. Kobe Johnson
29. Yves Missi
30. Zvonomir Ivisic


This was last year's rankings:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...best-prospects

1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Cam Whitmore
4. Taylor Hendricks
5. Gradey Dick
6. Cason Wallace
7. Dereck Lively II
8. Jarace Walker
9. Brandin Podziemski
10. Brice Sensabaugh


This was the ranking in 2022:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...stats-scouting
1. Chet Holmgren
2. Jabari Smith
3. Keegan Murray
4. AJ Griffin
5. Dyson Daniels
6. Walker Kessler
7. Bennedict Mathurin
8. Tari Eason
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Shaedon Sharpe

* Paolo went 11th.


Here is 2021:
https://www.espn.com.au/nba/insider/...stats-scouting

1. Alperen Sengun
2. Cade Cunningham
3. Jalen Green
4. Evan Mobley
5. Josh Giddey
6. Jalen Suggs
7. Jonathan Kuminga
8. Usman Garuba
9. Franz Wagner
10. Moses Moody

* Scottie went 13th


So definitely not perfect (no model will be).. but he's been bang on in a few places. And took some big leaps. Like Sengun as #1 in 2021. He had Kessler in his top 10 two years ago (although he had a rough year). Podz in his top 10 last year and didn't have Scoot in there.

I'd be hella surprised if either Clingan or Sheppard were picked in the top 5.

[planetmars]

I'd be hella surprised if either Clingan or Sheppard were picked in the top 5.

Not sure about Clingan but Sheppard is in most top 5 mocks. So I would be surprised if he's not picked in the top 5.

[LJ2]

Not sure about Clingan but Sheppard is in most top 5 mocks. So I would be surprised if he's not picked in the top 5.

Meh, I don't don't put a lot of stock in most mocks. Sheppard is a pretty low ceiling player to put into the top 5 even in a draft such as this one. Teams are going to go for the guys with high upside so I expect to hear a lot of players like Salaun go higher than expected in the draft. Sort of like the Bilal Coulibaly pick which Washington made last season.

[planetmars]

Meh, I don't don't put a lot of stock in most mocks. Sheppard is a pretty low ceiling player to put into the top 5 even in a draft such as this one. Teams are going to go for the guys with high upside so I expect to hear a lot of players like Salaun go higher than expected in the draft. Sort of like the Bilal Coulibaly pick which Washington made last season.

I mean 1 or 2 teams might reach on guys.. but the mocks are usually not that far off. Guys drop though for various reasons. Like when players have bad workouts or interviews. Or when guys don't workout for certain teams hoping they don't get drafted there. It's still early in the process so we'll see. But if the consensus mocks have him in the top 5 right before draft night, I think he'll go top 5.

[Joey]

I mean 1 or 2 teams might reach on guys.. but the mocks are usually not that far off. Guys drop though for various reasons. Like when players have bad workouts or interviews. Or when guys don't workout for certain teams hoping they don't get drafted there. It's still early in the process so we'll see. But if the consensus mocks have him in the top 5 right before draft night, I think he'll go top 5.

I don't think he's saying the issue is with Mocks having the pick placement wrong; I think it's more that the skill placement being consistently wrong. It's like what we talked about earlier in the thread.

[Primer]

It just happened that way.. and I don't think he was wrong. Chet and Sengun have been great prospects. And obviously Wemby too.

Here was Pelton's top 10 in 2020:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...p-30-prospects

1. LaMelo Ball
2. Tyrese Haliburton
3. Anthony Edwards
4. Cole Anthony
5. Devin Vassell
6. Deni Avdija
7. Onyeka Okongwu
8. R.J. Hampton
9. Killian Hayes
10. Aaron Nesmith

First center went 7th. Wiseman who was picked 2nd was 16th on his list.

He's never been wrong with this #1. And so I could see Clingan being a pretty good choice if you have a top 4 pick or even #1.

I mean, you'd have to suck really really bad at this to not put someone good in the number 1 spot. Nailing the lower down picks is a lot more difficult and impressive if done correctly.

[planetmars]

I mean, you'd have to suck really really bad at this to not put someone good in the number 1 spot. Nailing the lower down picks is a lot more difficult and impressive if done correctly.

Well you said his model liked picking centers first.. I just wanted to show that it doesn't.

This is a different draft though since the tiers will be all over the place. So you could easily get a bust at #1 in this draft. But there is no such thing as a perfect draft model. I just think Pelton's is a pretty decent one based on history. He'll likely miss out on guys and pick the wrong guys in his top 10 too. Just like every year he's been doing this. He uses a statistical model and so should have less bias. Yet I'm not sure how he compares players across different leagues. But he's been pretty consistently good with his rankings. Especially at #1.

He had Zion in 2019. Luka in 2018. Ball in 2017. Simmons in 2016. KAT in 2015.

Then Smart in 2014 which was a miss. Should have had Embiid who went 6th . So again imperfect.

Ultimately if Clingan is his #1 guy this year.. he's probably going to be a good pick.

[planetmars]

He had this to say about Jokic in 2014:

1. Nikola Jokic, C, Serbia
Win%: .468 | Age: 19.2 | WARP projection: 3.1

Reports originally indicated Jokic would pull his name out of the draft before Monday's deadline. But he stayed in, ostensibly after getting a draft promise. Whoever takes Jokic in the second round will be getting a top-five value, statistically.

[The Great One]

Meh, I don't don't put a lot of stock in most mocks. Sheppard is a pretty low ceiling player to put into the top 5 even in a draft such as this one. Teams are going to go for the guys with high upside so I expect to hear a lot of players like Salaun go higher than expected in the draft. Sort of like the Bilal Coulibaly pick which Washington made last season.

Sheppard will be picked in the top 5, maybe even 1st overall. That's not a prediction, that's a spoiler.

Clingan, I'm not sure because all these teams: Detroit, SA, Charlotte, Portland.. all these teams don't need a C.

[planetmars]

Sheppard will be picked in the top 5, maybe even 1st overall. That's not a prediction, that's a spoiler.

Clingan, I'm not sure because all these teams: Detroit, SA, Charlotte, Portland.. all these teams don't need a C.

Spurs would probably prefer to move Wemby to PF, so I could see them getting a center.

[The Great One]

Spurs would probably prefer to move Wemby to PF, so I could see them getting a center.

Sheppard is the exact player the Spurs need. If they win the lottery again, expect Sheppard's name to be called first.

[LJ2]

I mean 1 or 2 teams might reach on guys.. but the mocks are usually not that far off. Guys drop though for various reasons. Like when players have bad workouts or interviews. Or when guys don't workout for certain teams hoping they don't get drafted there. It's still early in the process so we'll see. But if the consensus mocks have him in the top 5 right before draft night, I think he'll go top 5.

He'll definitely drop out of the the top 5 on most mocks after the combine. He's too small to do the stuff he's been able to do in college once he gets to the NBA. You gotta have a physical trait that gives you an advantage against the field when you get to that level and I don't see it with Sheppard. Wouldn't be awful if he did drop because he might get drafted by a better team. He won't have the pressure of trying to be the savior for some bad team and can be more of a role player which is how I see him.

[golden]

Sheppard is the exact player the Spurs need. If they win the lottery again, expect Sheppard's name to be called first.

Spurs have a ton of combo guards on the roster already.