Everything 2024 Draft

[DanH]

I don't believe you can find a trend line and then just extend it indefinitely. But I agree with you. He has shown steady improvement over the last two years. I can't think of any reason why his improvement should stop once he is in a situation where the developmental and fitness coaches are in the top percentile of the world. How much would it cost the Raptors to grab Edey with their last pick and then work with him for the next two years? And what would they be giving up if they did that? I think they would wind up with a player who has possibilities no one else has on offer. And they could use him strategically in games as they continued his development.

Yeah, I don't see any downside taking him with the 2nd rounder. You're taking a bit of a swing no matter who you grab at that point.

The reality though is that he is likely going mid to late 1st (barring some team really reaching and grabbing him in the lotto). So if they want him it would need to be with the Indy pick. That's where the debate really picks up - and I'd tend to lean away from picking him there. But I also don't think it's so obvious that he won't be good that I'd be up in arms if they did grab him with that pick and I can see where the optimism comes from.

[Primer]

I don't believe you can find a trend line and then just extend it indefinitely. But I agree with you. He has shown steady improvement over the last two years. I can't think of any reason why his improvement should stop once he is in a situation where the developmental and fitness coaches are in the top percentile of the world. How much would it cost the Raptors to grab Edey with their last pick and then work with him for the next two years? And what would they be giving up if they did that? I think they would wind up with a player who has possibilities no one else has on offer. And they could use him strategically in games as they continued his development.

There's some really glaringly obvious reasons. Purdue was entirely built around catering to Edey on both sides of the ball. He 100% will not have that at the NBA level. On defense he played exclusively in the one spot he is comfortable, directly under the basket. The entire offense was built around getting him the ball within 3 feet of the basket so he can hook shot or dunk. His role in the NBA will be drastically different on both ends and he will be required to do things he's not comfortable with (Pick and roll defense) or he won't be playable. His offense is all post ups and post ups are a thing of the past in the NBA.

I also don't see this big improvement in Edey the last year. He had basically identical stats to 2022-23 season except he shot more FTs this year. That's another part of his game that won't translate to the NBA. He's not going to get all these ticky tack fouls by bullying 200lb players in the post. He was also getting "star" calls in college where he would clearly offensive foul and then get to shoot FTs. That's not happening in the NBA.

So yeah, I can think of a lot of reasons his improvement will stop once he is in the NBA.

[Kagemusha]

There's some really glaringly obvious reasons. Purdue was entirely built around catering to Edey on both sides of the ball. He 100% will not have that at the NBA level. On defense he played exclusively in the one spot he is comfortable, directly under the basket. The entire offense was built around getting him the ball within 3 feet of the basket so he can hook shot or dunk. His role in the NBA will be drastically different on both ends and he will be required to do things he's not comfortable with (Pick and roll defense) or he won't be playable. His offense is all post ups and post ups are a thing of the past in the NBA.

I also don't see this big improvement in Edey the last year. He had basically identical stats to 2022-23 season except he shot more FTs this year. That's another part of his game that won't translate to the NBA. He's not going to get all these ticky tack fouls by bullying 200lb players in the post. He was also getting "star" calls in college where he would clearly offensive foul and then get to shoot FTs. That's not happening in the NBA.

So yeah, I can think of a lot of reasons his improvement will stop once he is in the NBA.

Masai CAN NOT afford another Caboclo debacle.

[DanH]

Masai CAN NOT afford another Caboclo debacle.

Edey may not work out, but there's no comparison between him and Bruno.

[DanH]

There's some really glaringly obvious reasons. Purdue was entirely built around catering to Edey on both sides of the ball. He 100% will not have that at the NBA level. On defense he played exclusively in the one spot he is comfortable, directly under the basket. The entire offense was built around getting him the ball within 3 feet of the basket so he can hook shot or dunk. His role in the NBA will be drastically different on both ends and he will be required to do things he's not comfortable with (Pick and roll defense) or he won't be playable. His offense is all post ups and post ups are a thing of the past in the NBA.

I also don't see this big improvement in Edey the last year. He had basically identical stats to 2022-23 season except he shot more FTs this year. That's another part of his game that won't translate to the NBA. He's not going to get all these ticky tack fouls by bullying 200lb players in the post. He was also getting "star" calls in college where he would clearly offensive foul and then get to shoot FTs. That's not happening in the NBA.

So yeah, I can think of a lot of reasons his improvement will stop once he is in the NBA.

These sound like a lot of NCAA players coming to the NBA. Basically every top offensive player coming out of college is the star of their team, and most of them won't be in the NBA.

Edey is a big who can score inside, including further out in the paint, can pass, and projects to have a bit of a shot further out. And is a dominant rebounder on the offensive glass in particular.

No one is projecting him to score 30 points per 36 in the NBA, of course he will not replicate his college production. For many of the reasons you list. But while he might not be going up against 200 lb guys every night, he'll have a significant size advantage still most nights, so the inside scoring and offensive rebounding will still be there to some degree.

The real question is whether he can stay on the floor defensively. I think the Boban comparisons are poor and Edey has significantly better agility and footspeed, which should let him play a real rotation role, but it's still a question needs answering. Won't find many non-lotto prospects without a few questions to answer though. And that's where the further improvement comes into play - can a big guy improve his ability to move around in space when he has access to the best sports science guys in the world? After showing significant improvement in that area already compared to years past? I'd bet he can. Whether he can improve enough, like any draft pick, have to see.

[Maury]

I do the tankathon simulator once in a while, and I've been getting Raps with the first overall pick A LOT. Feeling lucky this year.

[planetmars]

I do the tankathon simulator once in a while, and I've been getting Raps with the first overall pick A LOT. Feeling lucky this year.

I nominate Maury as our rep for the lottery this year.

[Primer]

These sound like a lot of NCAA players coming to the NBA. Basically every top offensive player coming out of college is the star of their team, and most of them won't be in the NBA.

Edey is a big who can score inside, including further out in the paint, can pass, and projects to have a bit of a shot further out. And is a dominant rebounder on the offensive glass in particular.

No one is projecting him to score 30 points per 36 in the NBA, of course he will not replicate his college production. For many of the reasons you list. But while he might not be going up against 200 lb guys every night, he'll have a significant size advantage still most nights, so the inside scoring and offensive rebounding will still be there to some degree.

The real question is whether he can stay on the floor defensively. I think the Boban comparisons are poor and Edey has significantly better agility and footspeed, which should let him play a real rotation role, but it's still a question needs answering. Won't find many non-lotto prospects without a few questions to answer though. And that's where the further improvement comes into play - can a big guy improve his ability to move around in space when he has access to the best sports science guys in the world? After showing significant improvement in that area already compared to years past? I'd bet he can. Whether he can improve enough, like any draft pick, have to see.

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking because he's Canadian.

He's a 4 year college player who was static the past 2 seasons minus an uptick in FTs. It's far more likely he is what he is at this point, as most 4 year college players are. I did not see significant improvement in his defensive mobility he was doing the same thing as season prior, parked under the basket to shot block or collect a rebound. His offensive rebounding was great because he is parked within 3 feet of the basket on offense waiting for a pass so he can post up, because that was their entire offense.

When you have to invoke the gods of sport science I think you're losing the thread. Could do that magic dance for any player and say, "see all these parts of their game that aren't there, well in the NBA level they will be there because he will finally have access to sports science guys."

[planetmars]

I just look at JV and how he got played off the floor against OKC. He could get what he wanted against Chet and their front court.. but was a liability on defense and he had to sit. Edey will be worse defensively than JV.

I know we're talking about the 19th pick in a draft.. but I'd want someone a little more reliable on defense, especially as a big man. And hey if they pick him anyway I will be fine with it. But not my personal preference.

[blackjitsu]

On the Edey subject, I think his fans need to ask, "Do you want Edey to have a successful career, OR, be a Toronto Raptor?" A team built around Barnes, RJ, and Quickly isn't going to work with a center who is stuck at the paint. Edey on the Raps isn't getting more than 10 minutes a game.

If you're an Edey fan, for him to succeed he needs to be on a team where the "stars," are perimeter oriented. That way, he can dominate the paint. Maybe, if he lands on the right team, and develops more he could eventually become a Rap. But if you want him to have a long, professional career, stop hoping that he becomes a member of this version of the Raptors.

[Primer]

On the Edey subject, I think his fans need to ask, "Do you want Edey to have a successful career, OR, be a Toronto Raptor?" A team built around Barnes, RJ, and Quickly isn't going to work with a center who is stuck at the paint. Edey on the Raps isn't getting more than 10 minutes a game.

If you're an Edey fan, for him to succeed he needs to be on a team where the "stars," are perimeter oriented. That way, he can dominate the paint. Maybe, if he lands on the right team, and develops more he could eventually become a Rap. But if you want him to have a long, professional career, stop hoping that he becomes a member of this version of the Raptors.

Great post and I fully agree.

Look for teams that have Edey's "best case player comp" starting at C for them and maybe Edey could work as their backup.

A few people have mentioned Nurkic as a best case player comp, well his backup is Drew Eubanks who sucks so the Suns seem like a decent landing spot for him.

[golden]

I just look at JV and how he got played off the floor against OKC. He could get what he wanted against Chet and their front court.. but was a liability on defense and he had to sit. Edey will be worse defensively than JV.

I know we're talking about the 19th pick in a draft.. but I'd want someone a little more reliable on defense, especially as a big man. And hey if they pick him anyway I will be fine with it. But not my personal preference.

JV had 4 legit 3-pt shooters spacing the floor around him (CJ, Murphy, Herb, Ingram), so that was basically the perfect starting lineup around him (or Edey).

[planetmars]

JV had 4 legit 3-pt shooters spacing the floor around him (CJ, Murphy, Herb, Ingram), so that was basically the perfect starting lineup around him (or Edey).

Yeah and JV's net rating after those 4 games played was -20.4. Second worse on the team after Daniels who played in 3 games (and 5.7 minutes a game).

[Primer]

Yeah and JV's net rating after those 4 games played was -20.4. Second worse on the team after Daniels who played in 3 games (and 5.7 minutes a game).

You're both providing great evidence that the time of hulking slow footed centers is over.

[Kagemusha]

Edey may not work out, but there's no comparison between him and Bruno.

In terms of a potential wasted pick, there is.
If Edey is not Canadian, would you guys even entertain picking him. At all?