Everything 2024 Draft

[LJ2]

Have to think if he has value, they will find a deal for him at the draft, even if that deal has to be executed in July I'd bet we either hear a reported deal at the draft or we end up declining his option.

Do you think there would be an appetite or ability to trade Brown on draft night to move up in the draft? Is that likely at all?

[bertarapsfan]

I disagree 100% with the bold.

Please give examples of media guys saying this is a poor draft who don't know ball.

The know can't miss prospect who are hyped to be top 3 picks. But after that they get it wrong all the time. Exhibit A Scottie being outside the top 4 talent.

The lack of superstar prospects and it's hard to take "bad draft" class seriously. Cause these guys rely on can't miss top two or three picks being set on stone.

The number 1 and 2 pick probably are less valuable the other years. But i don't know if i really buy that pick 5 or 6 is so much worse the any other year.

[Primer]

Do you think there would be an appetite or ability to trade Brown on draft night to move up in the draft? Is that likely at all?

Yes that is certainly possible. Here are the contenders that have picks above 19 and we could potentially deal them 19 plus Brown for their pick to move up.

OKC pick 12
Sacramento pick 13
Miami pick 15
Philly pick 16
New Orleans pick 17
Orlando pick 18

[Primer]

The know can't miss prospect who are hyped to be top 3 picks. But after that they get it wrong all the time. Exhibit A Scottie being outside the top 4 talent.

The lack of superstar prospects and it's hard to take "bad draft" class seriously. Cause these guys rely on can't miss top two or three picks being set on stone.

The number 1 and 2 pick probably are less valuable the other years. But i don't know if i really buy that pick 5 or 6 is so much worse the any other year.

Scottie was a consensus top 5 or 6 pick, he's a terrible example of analysts getting it wrong, they got it really right.

[Joey]

Yes that is certainly possible. Here are the contenders that have picks above 19 and we could potentially deal them 19 plus Brown for their pick to move up.

OKC pick 12
Sacramento pick 13
Miami pick 15
Philly pick 16
New Orleans pick 17
Orlando pick 18

Insane that OKC have the 12th pick after the season they just had. Goddam that team is set for life. Lol

[golden]

This is a dumb take.

Way more all stars and all nba players go early in the draft than late or undrafted. The higher a player goes the more likely they become a star. The lower a player goes the more likely they don't stick in the league. That's the proof right there.

Their accuracy is not terrible, it's very good. You just set the bar at absolute perfection which is impossible.

Jokic being passed over 40 times is setting the bar really, really low, if you're being honest. We could list a lot of other players.

[bertarapsfan]

Scottie was a consensus top 5 or 6 pick, he's a terrible example of analysts getting it wrong, they got it really right.

Yea he was projected to be a top 5 or 6 pick. But experts claimed there was a top 4 and then a talent gap. Scottie should have been the number 1 pick. And they all missed that. that's my point on the draft, the're is going to be Scottie in there. But lack of a Zion or wemby is why the call it a bad class

[Ebonhawke]

Insane that OKC have the 12th pick after the season they just had. Goddam that team is set for life. Lol

The #12 pick is from Houston - acquired five years ago in the Chris Paul / Russell Westbrick trade

Traded Chris Paul, a 2021 1st round draft pick, a 2024 1st round draft pick, a 2025 1st round draft pick and a 2026 1st round draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook. 2024 pick is top-4 protected 2026 pick is top-4 protected, becomes $1MM and 2026 second-round pick 2021 1st-rd pick is right to swap, top-4 protected, did not convey 2025 1st-rd pick is right to swap with HOU, top-20 protected

[WJF]

Yea he was projected to be a top 5 or 6 pick. But experts claimed there was a top 4 and then a talent gap. Scottie should have been the number 1 pick. And they all missed that. that's my point on the draft, the're is going to be Scottie in there. But lack of a Zion or wemby is why the call it a bad class

I’d like to see a 2021 redraft. I don’t know if Scottie goes first overall. He had the benefit of starting out his career on a pretty good team, had a flat second season and had an injury filled 3rd season. Suggs had a good 3rd season, Mobley has been consistent, both Green and Cunningham showed improvements in year 3 as well.

The top 5 guys have all been good. Add in Sengun and Wagner and the top 7 picks could go any way. There would be good arguments for the order of those 7.

[3inthekeon]

Jokic being passed over 40 times is setting the bar really, really low, if you're being honest. We could list a lot of other players.

There are lots of outliers, yes. But teams take a snapshot of where players are at and then project. And sometimes their projections are wrong. But a lot of times they are correct.

You keep using weather forecasting as an example. Next Wednesday the forecast calls for sun in my area. If it rains, some might point out how weather forecasters are incompetent. But the forecasters do call for a 10% chance of precipitation. So the forecasters weren't incompetent, it's just the 10% chance happened.

Drafts are similar. Lots of times players progress as expected, sometimes they underachieve and sometimes they overachieve.

[golden]

There are lots of outliers, yes. But teams take a snapshot of where players are at and then project. And sometimes their projections are wrong. But a lot of times they are correct.

You keep using weather forecasting as an example. Next Wednesday the forecast calls for sun in my area. If it rains, some might point out how weather forecasters are incompetent. But the forecasters do call for a 10% chance of precipitation. So the forecasters weren't incompetent, it's just the 10% chance happened.

Drafts are similar. Lots of times players progress as expected, sometimes they underachieve and sometimes they overachieve.

Weather forecasters, aka, meterologists, are very competent, just like draft experts and NBA front offices. They are doing the absolute best they can possibly do with the information available. The problem is that the thing they are trying to predict is inherently not easily forecasted, so their absolute best is still pretty bad. Sounds like we agree on the analogy?

And for the record, forecasting has gotten much better in the past decade with better models and sensors everywhere. I suppose that forecasting NBA draft prospects will also get better with AI and perhaps other tools to measure players beyond the combine and draft workouts in the future.

Giannis, Jokic, Nash, Kobe, Dirk, Kawhi, PG, Manu, Parker, Gasol, Stockton, Malone, Rodman, Reggie Miller, Vlade, Kukoc, Kemp, Peja, Pierce, T-Mac, Lowry, Butler, Draymond, Gobert, Booker, Sabonis, Siakam, Bam, Mitchell, Shai, Brunson, Maxey, Haliburton, Bane, Quickley, etc..... should all have been drafted way higher. I'm sure I'm missing a lot more. And 5 of these "outliers" were of seismic proportions... NBA landscape altering MVPs.

[3inthekeon]

Weather forecasters, aka, meterologists, are very competent, just like draft experts and NBA front offices. They are doing the absolute best they can possibly do with the information available. The problem is that the thing they are trying to predict is inherently not easily forecasted, so their absolute best is still pretty bad. Sounds like we agree on the analogy?

And for the record, forecasting has gotten much better in the past decade with better models and sensors everywhere. I suppose that forecasting NBA draft prospects will also get better with AI and perhaps other tools to measure players beyond the combine and draft workouts in the future.

Giannis, Jokic, Nash, Kobe, Dirk, Kawhi, PG, Manu, Parker, Gasol, Stockton, Malone, Rodman, Reggie Miller, Vlade, Kukoc, Kemp, Peja, Pierce, T-Mac, Lowry, Butler, Draymond, Gobert, Booker, Sabonis, Siakam, Bam, Mitchell, Shai, Brunson, Maxey, Haliburton, Bane, Quickley, etc..... should all have been drafted way higher. I'm sure I'm missing a lot more. And 5 of these "outliers" were of seismic proportions... NBA landscape altering MVPs.

International scouting has improved over the years. And as for Americans, I think every one of those (out of the hundreds of draft eligible players each year) were actually drafted.

[golden]

International scouting has improved over the years. And as for Americans, I think every one of those (out of the hundreds of draft eligible players each year) were actually drafted.

I wasn't referring only to undrafted players. I'm talking about how draft experts (pundits and NBA front offices) regularly miss on stars and superstars who should've been drafted much higher.

It's nothing against the experts, draft outcomes are just intrinsically difficult to predict. Just like the weather forecasting was 30 years ago (but has gotten better recently).

[Primer]

Jokic being passed over 40 times is setting the bar really, really low, if you're being honest. We could list a lot of other players.

The fact you had to bring up Jokic shows how dumb your post was.

"I will pick the one extreme outlier, I am smart."

[3inthekeon]

Using the last Ringer mock for the player, Silver should announce picks like this :

With the 19th pick in the 2024 NBA draft the Toronto Raptors select 5% chance of being a star, 30% chance of being a starter, 40% chance of being a bench piece and 25% chance of being a bust Isaiah Collier from the University of Southern California.